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Can Marvel and DC’s 2025 Slates Reverse an Unprecedented Box Office Drought?
Posted on 10/29/24 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 10/29/24 at 2:06 pm
quote:
Sony Pictures billed “Venom: The Last Dance” as the final chapter in Tom Hardy’s alien-symbiote-buddy-comedy franchise. But with its $51 million domestic opening weekend — 44% and 55% lower than the previous two installments — the movie also signifies the continued twilight of superhero cinema as the dominant force at the box office.
Superhero movies used to be an indispensable revenue driver for the film industry. In 2018 and 2019, the average global gross for superhero fare was more than $1 billion. This year, it’s half that, even with the record-breaking success of “Deadpool & Wolverine.” In fact, the Ryan Reynolds-Hugh Jackman vehicle is the only comic book movie that could qualify as a hit since “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” debuted in June 2023. Since then, the genre has suffered an extraordinary box office drought. Film after film, from “The Flash” to “The Marvels” to “Madame Web,” opened to, at best, a shrug — and, at worst, outright rejection: “Joker: Folie à Deux” is on track to earn the ignominious distinction of making less in its entire box office run than its predecessor’s $248.4 million global opening weekend in 2019.
Between 2015 and 2019, 25 out of 30 superhero titles — 83% — took in more $500 million worldwide, some considerably so. After the pandemic, that dynamic has been flipped on its head: Since 2022, 10 of 17 superhero titles — 59% — have made less than $500 million globally, some considerably so.
These stiff financial headwinds place an almost existential pressure on the 2025 superhero slate to deliver. After opening just “Deadpool & Wolverine” in 2024, Marvel Studios is ramping back up to three films: “Captain America: Brave New World,” “Thunderbolts*” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.”
quote:
“There are no slam dunks here,” says Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock. “There’s still a lot of goodwill for Marvel. It’s still the biggest show in town. But to think that these are going to do ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ business — I just don’t see that for any of these films.”
quote:
The superhero stakes in 2025 are highest, however, for DC Studios. In January 2023, newly installed co-chiefs James Gunn and Peter Safran announced a brand-new slate of 10 movies and TV shows that would relaunch the universe as a fully integrated creative endeavor. The first of those projects, the animated series “Creature Commandos,” debuts on Max in December, but the new DC Universe takes flight in earnest with the release of “Superman,” written and directed by Gunn.
“I don’t think you can stress enough how important ‘Superman’ is for the entire DC Universe,” Bock says. “This probably has to open with $100 million [domestically], something DC hasn't been able to pull off in quite a long time” — aside from 2022’s “The Batman,” which, like “Joker: Folie à Deux,” was produced outside the DCU. “Warner Bros. and DC films are really going to be at a turning point if ‘Superman’ does not succeed. They will have to make some big decisions.”
Let's hear some predictions for box office totals:
Captain America: Brave New World
Thunderbolts
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Superman 2025
read more
This post was edited on 10/29/24 at 2:09 pm
5
Posted on 10/29/24 at 2:31 pm to RLDSC FAN
The only one I’m excited to see is Superman.
Brave New World: Will be overly, pretentiously woke - you all know it.
Thunderbolts? Nay.
FF: Couldn’t they find a straight guy to play Reed Richards?
Brave New World: Will be overly, pretentiously woke - you all know it.
Thunderbolts? Nay.
FF: Couldn’t they find a straight guy to play Reed Richards?
Posted on 10/29/24 at 2:41 pm to RLDSC FAN
Captain America: Brave New World--210M bomb Marvels style
Thunderbolts--250M Black Widow without Black Widow
The Fantastic Four: First Steps--350M adjusted for inflation
Superman 2025--400M
Thunderbolts--250M Black Widow without Black Widow
The Fantastic Four: First Steps--350M adjusted for inflation
Superman 2025--400M
Posted on 10/29/24 at 2:43 pm to rebelrouser
quote:
Superman 2025--400M
That would be a huge disappointment
Posted on 10/29/24 at 2:51 pm to rebelrouser
quote:
Captain America: Brave New World--210M bomb Marvels style
Thunderbolts--250M Black Widow without Black Widow
The Fantastic Four: First Steps--350M adjusted for inflation
Superman 2025--400M
If all that’s true, it will be tough for these to make money.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 3:07 pm to RLDSC FAN
No, people are so burnt out on that shite. The reviews would have to be incredible prerelease for most people to get excited about much if that slate.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 3:47 pm to Philzilla2k
I'm probably lowballing by quite a bit but i looked at previous total box offices and those are definitely possible.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 4:28 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
Captain America: Brave New World
Thunderbolts
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
For Captain America, it's hard to be thrilled at the idea of a Red Hulk without, you know... the Hulk also in it.
Thunderbolts has, potentially, the best cast - but I also worry about character bloat in that one. Still could be fun.
Fantastic Four might be the only one I'd be willing to see in the theaters though (for Galactus)
Posted on 10/29/24 at 4:40 pm to RLDSC FAN
In short, no.
Captain America: Brave New World - People will actively avoid seeing this in theaters because of well not really Captain America. Yes, I know he becomes Cap in the comics. General MCU fan doesn't care about this, specifically my kids. They don't care to see it.
Thunderbolts - Suicide Squad made $750M worldwide in 2016. Marvel will be doing backflips if this comes anywhere near that.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps and Superman 2025 - These have the best chance of success. Both will do big opening weekend numbers. If they are good, they will be in the 800-900M range. If they suck, numbers will drop quickly and they will struggle to make 500M.
Captain America: Brave New World - People will actively avoid seeing this in theaters because of well not really Captain America. Yes, I know he becomes Cap in the comics. General MCU fan doesn't care about this, specifically my kids. They don't care to see it.
Thunderbolts - Suicide Squad made $750M worldwide in 2016. Marvel will be doing backflips if this comes anywhere near that.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps and Superman 2025 - These have the best chance of success. Both will do big opening weekend numbers. If they are good, they will be in the 800-900M range. If they suck, numbers will drop quickly and they will struggle to make 500M.
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