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2
Posted on 3/29/22 at 1:14 pm to shel311
All this means is that three teams behind us move up and the pick ends up at 11.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 1:14 pm to cgrand
quote:
2nd try was pels #1, lakers #3
Hit 1 and 2 a month or so ago on my first go and posted it on page 3....I Refuse to run the simulation again
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 1:15 pm to shel311
I ran it 4 times, we're all having luck today.
LAL pick went 4th, then 2nd, then 1st.
4th time we finally didn't get into the top 10 and settled at 9th
LAL pick went 4th, then 2nd, then 1st.
4th time we finally didn't get into the top 10 and settled at 9th
Posted on 3/29/22 at 1:15 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:I did forget about "Pels life"
All this means is that three teams behind us move up and the pick ends up at 11.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 1:37 pm to cgrand
quote:
pels would be at 112- 115MM without zion's 30+ and/or hayes (20?) and nance (??)
Here is a possible scenario keeping the roster mostly intact:
Cut Temple
Dump Graham for as little salary as you can
Renounce Nunnally
Sign Nance on bird rights to 3/27 starting at 7.5/9/10.5
Extend Zion on the 5 year max, starting at 28
Sign Hayes on bird rights at 3/36, starting at 10/12/14
Decline Naji
With one rookie added this year plus minimum player to fill roster, that would put us at just a hair under the luxury tax for that year. You could also decline Willy for more wiggle room. Then when the CBA is up at the end of the 23-24 season and they get the new TV money, we should be able to handle the step increases in salary.
Although maybe not necessarily ideal, there is a way to make moves without sacrificing key guys. But you can pretty much guarantee one of Hayes or Graham will not be on the roster.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 1:50 pm to Baron
Naji is just a guy and Billy is not needed if you keep Nance and Hayes. Temple needs to be gone sooner than later.
This is all doable, but I would hate to have to dump Graham, mostly because you know Griff is dying to tie a first round pick to whoever will take him off our hands.
This is all doable, but I would hate to have to dump Graham, mostly because you know Griff is dying to tie a first round pick to whoever will take him off our hands.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 1:57 pm to saints5021
If I’m griff I’m keeping the pick(if we get it). Unless it’s for a SGA type player that you package other assets with. Gotta build through the draft as a small market team and have rookie scale contracts. This team is gonna be expensive pretty quickly once we sign Zion to his second contract. As of now I wouldn’t be surprised if we gave CJ another 3 year contract in the future as well.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 1:59 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:09 pm to Macintosh
I disagree that we need to build through the draft. Assuming you have Zion's buy in and he signs the max, the time to compete is now. You will have two superstars in Zion and BI, with CJ being damn near a third one. You already have a great supporting cast with JV, Hayes, Graham, Herb, TM3, Nance and Jose. You augment them with a big guard and more shooting, and bank on growth from your young players.
Not saying don't use the 8 pick on a good player, but if you have a chance to add a piece to the roster, you do it.
Our window to compete is now. The West is fairly weak moving forward. There is no reason that we shouldn't be up there with the Grizlies, Mavs and Nuggets as legitimate threats.
Not saying don't use the 8 pick on a good player, but if you have a chance to add a piece to the roster, you do it.
Our window to compete is now. The West is fairly weak moving forward. There is no reason that we shouldn't be up there with the Grizlies, Mavs and Nuggets as legitimate threats.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:16 pm to saints5021
I think the point is that we are about to get expensive really quick. Rookies are cost controlled for an extended period of time.
If you can develop rookies you can maintain a roster with 4-5 expensive vets. If you can't...you can't.
If you can develop rookies you can maintain a roster with 4-5 expensive vets. If you can't...you can't.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:19 pm to saints5021
We've already made the choice not to build exclusively through the draft, but the numbers simply make it relatively impossible to maintain anything more than a very short term window if your idea is to package the 8th pick for another 20 million'ish player. Or go all in for a 4th star.
And if they arent of that quality, why would you give up a top 10 pick for that?
Our window is the next 2-5 years depending on Zion and BI, not 1 or 2. And frankly, we still dont know if Zion can stay healthy long term. Going all in for slightly improving our 1 to 2 year window is short sighted
Look at GS, even they, one of the wealthiest ownership and highest revenue teams in the league are rumored to likely be sellers of Wiggins and potentially more in order to avoid the upcoming tax bill. There solution will be to use cost controlled high upside rookies to counter balance their expensive vet core. Pels could learn something from the team with most recent dynastic run
And if they arent of that quality, why would you give up a top 10 pick for that?
Our window is the next 2-5 years depending on Zion and BI, not 1 or 2. And frankly, we still dont know if Zion can stay healthy long term. Going all in for slightly improving our 1 to 2 year window is short sighted
Look at GS, even they, one of the wealthiest ownership and highest revenue teams in the league are rumored to likely be sellers of Wiggins and potentially more in order to avoid the upcoming tax bill. There solution will be to use cost controlled high upside rookies to counter balance their expensive vet core. Pels could learn something from the team with most recent dynastic run
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:21 pm to Bronc
I do agree with you, but I just question whether that is the direction Griff takes.
Also, we have more picks over the next 6ish years than we will be able to roster.
Also, we have more picks over the next 6ish years than we will be able to roster.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:24 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Also, we have more picks over the next 6ish years than we will be able to roster.
2022 lakers
2023 lakers or ours
2024 ours
2025 ours
2024 or 2025 lakers
that’s just the next 3 years
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:31 pm to Fun Bunch
I mean I question it too, Im just stating what I think should happen
As to the roster crunch. I dont think it is an actual problem.
Best case scenario is that all our recent guys ball out and we do have a crowded roster, great! So you end up with a top 5 Lakers pick in a couple years and no space, well, you can now sell it off to a desperate team and get back 2 future unprotected firsts/pick swaps and the Pels continue to have an embarrassment of riches to work with as they move forward. Or, if a guy like Murphy or Herb just become impossible to keep, you have a top 5 pick to replace them with.
But you lose a lot of that if we start aggressively consolidating our long term assets into a handful of win now players that we can't realistically sustain the cost of past a few seasons. Who are also closer to the end of their careers than the beginning.
As to the roster crunch. I dont think it is an actual problem.
Best case scenario is that all our recent guys ball out and we do have a crowded roster, great! So you end up with a top 5 Lakers pick in a couple years and no space, well, you can now sell it off to a desperate team and get back 2 future unprotected firsts/pick swaps and the Pels continue to have an embarrassment of riches to work with as they move forward. Or, if a guy like Murphy or Herb just become impossible to keep, you have a top 5 pick to replace them with.
But you lose a lot of that if we start aggressively consolidating our long term assets into a handful of win now players that we can't realistically sustain the cost of past a few seasons. Who are also closer to the end of their careers than the beginning.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:33 pm to cgrand
Plus 2nd round picks, plus we *could* still keep the Bucks pick in 2025 I believe, plus the Bucks pick in 2027.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:34 pm to saints5021
quote:with everyone healthy the team is already capable of competing. We actually have solid depth if the young guys continue to develop. Just imo I’d prefer to continue to stock up on good young players through the draft and let them develop while CJ and some of the vets get older. Unless we get an SGA type level player. Trading away a potential top 10 pick for a player who just comes off the bench is a waste.
Assuming you have Zion's buy in and he signs the max, the time to compete is now.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:39 pm to cgrand
quote:
2022 lakers
2023 lakers or ours
2024 ours
2025 ours
2024 or 2025 lakers
that’s just the next 3 years
I dont really see that as a problem, especially when inevitably there are going to be 1 or 2 players that we just cant realistically keep because they outplay their contract, or, unforeseen events happen and you have a hole you weren't expecting.
Naji/Temple/Graham/Billy are all players that I would happily upgrade over the next season or 2 with some first round talent if possible. And Hayes is a major wild card. there is a scenario(unlikely, but not impossible) where he does jail time and gets a suspension from the league, or, he balls out and is looking at a 20 million dollar offer from some team and we need a cheaper replacement.
To me we have an insurance fund and pipeline almost no team ready to make a leap that I can think of has ever had. And it would be a shame if we decided to squander that to go try and be like your typical win-now teams desperately thinking they only have a 1-2 window so they empty their assets into 1-3 short term plays that turn us into every other small market team again
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:40 pm to Macintosh
I would say that's fine, but you have to be flexible.
there's multiple ways to build a team and we shouldn't shut any doors, whether that's draft, trades, FA etc.
If there are deals out there that make us better and we give up draft picks to do it, so be it.
At some point during the Zion/BI era, we likely will move multiple draft picks in a trade.
there's multiple ways to build a team and we shouldn't shut any doors, whether that's draft, trades, FA etc.
If there are deals out there that make us better and we give up draft picks to do it, so be it.
At some point during the Zion/BI era, we likely will move multiple draft picks in a trade.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:42 pm to Bronc
quote:
I dont really see that as a problem
You're talking about having a team with potentially 6-7 players under rookie contract at a given time.
That is just incredibly unlikely. I'm not aware of many contending teams with stars in their mid-20s to early 30s like that. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:49 pm to Fun Bunch
Well, no team I can think of in the modern era has ever had the luxury of being a contender and still potentially filling out their bench with numerous top 15 to top 10 picks(or guys playing like one). But I guarantee many would have loved the opportunity!
The Warriors are coming close with their combo of Wiseman(though looking like a bust), Moody, Kuminga, and Poole.
Plus, like I said, if you are at a point where things are tapped out, that affords you the rare opportunity to create a bidding war for one of those picks, to turn, say, a 2024 Lakers top 10 pick into an unprotected 2026 and 2029 pick and something else that fits a need(cap space, role player etc).
And if CJ, or Jonas, god forbid, has a career threatening injury, you still have the assets to bring in a top 30 caliber replacement.
The Warriors are coming close with their combo of Wiseman(though looking like a bust), Moody, Kuminga, and Poole.
Plus, like I said, if you are at a point where things are tapped out, that affords you the rare opportunity to create a bidding war for one of those picks, to turn, say, a 2024 Lakers top 10 pick into an unprotected 2026 and 2029 pick and something else that fits a need(cap space, role player etc).
And if CJ, or Jonas, god forbid, has a career threatening injury, you still have the assets to bring in a top 30 caliber replacement.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 2:51 pm
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