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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 7/5/14 at 7:22 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/5/14 at 7:22 pm to rds dc
quote:
Yes, my bad. I thought I put a something with that gif saying that. Obviously no real threat to the US but super typhoons are pretty wicked.
Wouldn't this thing effect the el nino or some shite like that?
1
Posted on 7/5/14 at 9:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Wouldn't this thing effect the el nino or some shite like that?
I don't know, I've never really looked into that. My guess would be that it is too small and transit to really impact something on the scale of El Nino. It may be able to temporarily beat down the high SST anomalies between Japan and the Philippines that you don't typically see during an El Nino.
Posted on 7/6/14 at 10:35 am to rds dc
ETA: And it fades away
This post was edited on 8/8/14 at 9:29 pm
Posted on 7/6/14 at 12:25 pm to rds dc
Looks like it's going to go right up Japan's arse.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 8:19 am to rds dc
Posted on 7/8/14 at 10:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
This won't directly impact the US but it is forecast to be such a large super typhoon that it will alter the downstream weather pattern for sure.
Neoguri's impact on the downstream pattern is starting to show up in the modeling and analogs
Posted on 7/8/14 at 10:13 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
what's up with this Saharan sand?
Basically just dry dusty air that prevents thunderstorms from developing. It kills most of the tropical waves coming off of Africa this time of year.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 12:56 pm to rds dc
quote:
Hmmmmm
Well, thats a change of events..
Posted on 7/18/14 at 8:27 am to GEAUXmedic
Super Typhoon Rammasun is now one of the strongest typhoons to ever hit China
This post was edited on 7/18/14 at 11:39 am
Posted on 7/18/14 at 8:45 am to rds dc
That eye is ridiculous
Posted on 7/18/14 at 9:27 am to burgeman
Wow! Landfall...direct hit on Xuwen County - population 700,000
Posted on 7/18/14 at 10:08 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Well, thats a change of events..
Yes but I'm not ready to start raising forecast storm totals for the Atlantic yet. The atmosphere has been taking on more of an El Nino look as late and that looks to continue as we head towards the peak of the season. The CFS is showing enhanced E. Pacific precipitation in mid-August with a large area of below normal precipitation across the W. Atlantic and Caribbean. The E. Pacific convection is kicking of subsidence across the W. Atlantic and Caribbean.
The long range Euro also supports below normal activity in the Atlantic heading into mid-August. If El Nino is delayed then there might be a relaxation of this pattern as we move into late August and September, the peak of the Atlantic season.
I think the El Nino will probably recover in time for this winter (California desperately needs this to happen) but it will probably be weak/moderate.
Posted on 7/19/14 at 12:07 pm to rds dc
The models are keying on the atmospheric kelvin way that is pushing through the basin and trying to kick up a system.
Kelvin waves are a known tropical cyclone genesis triggers but the models might be over doing it this time. There is a broad area of 850 vorticty out there right now that it is associated with a wave that is interacting with the ITCZ.
But then there is this:
Kelvin waves are a known tropical cyclone genesis triggers but the models might be over doing it this time. There is a broad area of 850 vorticty out there right now that it is associated with a wave that is interacting with the ITCZ.
But then there is this:
Posted on 7/19/14 at 12:13 pm to rds dc
Holy SAL
Posted on 7/19/14 at 12:38 pm to rds dc
So what type of weather scare tactic am I looking at now? Is this the equivalent of water vapor palm reading?
Posted on 7/20/14 at 3:10 pm to rds dc
quote:
Kelvin waves are a known tropical cyclone genesis triggers but the models might be over doing it this time.
As expected, the models have given up on trying to develop a system in association with the KW passage. The window for development was just too small given how hostile conditions are out there.
On the other side, it will be interesting to watch Matmo and see if it kicks off another chain of wave breaking resulting in another cold shot for the eastern 2/3s of the country. Cool nights in early August
*Both links above are hotlinks and will update over time
Posted on 7/20/14 at 3:17 pm to rds dc
It's not much but it's something....
Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on July 21, 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts
Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on July 21, 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts
This post was edited on 7/21/14 at 8:51 am
Posted on 7/21/14 at 12:08 pm to jlu03
92L is lurking, pretty surprised at how well it looks but satellite images can be deceiving.
This post was edited on 8/8/14 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 7/21/14 at 1:07 pm to rds dc
quote:i was just coming to post this. What's up with this? Jeff Masters blog has it as a good potential to develop with low shear forecasted.
92L is lurking, pretty surprised at how well it looks but satellite images can be deceiving.
quote:
Global models still have not resolved this system, but after manual initialization by NHC, Early Track and Intensity model forecasts call for the system to become a Depression today and possibly reach Tropical Storm intensity during the next 48-72 hours once the system moves over waters that are warm enough to support storm formation.
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