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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 7/29/14 at 4:42 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 7/29/14 at 4:42 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I'm going with not
I still think this can eek out a TD or weak TS but the window for something more significant appears to be closing. The system really needed more robust convection at this point in order to establish a healthy core before encountering more hostile conditions. The combo of SAL to the north and cooler than normal SSTs out ahead of the system will probably keep things too stable for the system to really get going.
1
Posted on 7/30/14 at 10:11 pm to rds dc
93L is trying to rally tonight 
The LLC has been exposed most of the day but the system has been firing some meager convection. Most of this convection has been collapsing and kicking off outflow boundaries, a sign of the dry air that has obviously been plaguing the system.
93L has gotten a good bit smaller over the past few days:
A smaller system might be able to spring back faster than a larger system but it will also be more susceptible to shear and other unfavorable conditions down the road. It will be interesting to see if the system can maintain some convection tonight as it moves into an area of lower shear. Even if this batch of convection collapses it could work to the moisten the area around the LLC, thus resulting in another round of convection.
The LLC has been exposed most of the day but the system has been firing some meager convection. Most of this convection has been collapsing and kicking off outflow boundaries, a sign of the dry air that has obviously been plaguing the system.
93L has gotten a good bit smaller over the past few days:
A smaller system might be able to spring back faster than a larger system but it will also be more susceptible to shear and other unfavorable conditions down the road. It will be interesting to see if the system can maintain some convection tonight as it moves into an area of lower shear. Even if this batch of convection collapses it could work to the moisten the area around the LLC, thus resulting in another round of convection.
This post was edited on 7/31/14 at 10:12 pm
Posted on 7/31/14 at 7:51 pm to rds dc
93L is still struggling but could go straight to Bertha tonight or tomorrow with some sustained convection. Recon found TS force winds this afternoon but the system lacks deep convection near the center.
Posted on 7/31/14 at 10:13 pm to rds dc
quote:
93L is still struggling but could go straight to Bertha tonight
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014
...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Posted on 7/31/14 at 10:14 pm to rds dc
Seem to be pretty confident on the path
Posted on 7/31/14 at 10:19 pm to ell_13
quote:
Seem to be pretty confident on the path
Pretty much what the models say and have been saying.
This post was edited on 7/31/14 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 8/2/14 at 9:39 am to GEAUXmedic
Bertha continues to struggle but the W Pac is delivering again. Super typhoon Halong is heading towards Japan and could eventually set off another round of unseasonably cool weather across the US.
Posted on 8/2/14 at 9:50 am to rds dc
quote:
Super typhoon Halong is heading towards Japan and could eventually set off another round of unseasonably cool weather across the US.
I know I'll sound dumb posting this in a meterology thread, but how does a strong typhoon in Asia create cooler weather in the US? What's the connection/chain of events?
Posted on 8/2/14 at 10:03 am to Bestbank Tiger
It causes the jet stream to dip more southernly than it normally does at this time of the year basically
Posted on 8/2/14 at 10:04 am to Ba Ba Boooey
Thanks, that makes sense 
Posted on 8/2/14 at 7:15 pm to rds dc
Meanwhile in the Pacific..
Posted on 8/2/14 at 10:52 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
I know I'll sound dumb posting this in a meterology thread, but how does a strong typhoon in Asia create cooler weather in the US? What's the connection/chain of events?
Ba Ba Boooey got it.
quote:
It causes the jet stream to dip more southernly than it normally does at this time of the year basically
As Halong recurves to the N and then NE it will release a huge amount of heat into the atmosphere. This will pump up an anomalous ridge (high pressure) to the NE of the system. This will set off "wave breaking" or an amplification of the Rossby wave train. As that progresses east towards North America it will help build a ridge off the west coast up into western Canada and that will result in a trough digging across the central US.
This process doesn't always happen and typically happens more in the fall than it does in the summer. It tends to happen more during an El Nino as well. It is pretty odd to see this happen 3 times in such a short span during the summer, interesting times for sure.
Posted on 8/3/14 at 12:00 am to rds dc
Good God that is a beautiful and terrifying pic all at once
Posted on 8/3/14 at 9:55 am to Ba Ba Boooey
Halong roaring across the Pacific
Posted on 8/3/14 at 10:07 am to rds dc
Wow.
Posted on 8/3/14 at 10:07 am to rds dc
quote:
Wow.
Posted on 8/4/14 at 9:27 pm to ell_13
Bertha got upgraded to a "hurricane" today
And the Pacific scores again with Cat 4 Iselle
And the Pacific scores again with Cat 4 Iselle
Posted on 8/4/14 at 9:59 pm to rds dc
Could get interesting for Hawaii. Current forecast has her as strong TS near the big island.
Posted on 8/4/14 at 10:00 pm to NorthEndZone
Damn. Looks like a direct hit.
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