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3
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:06 pm to GEAUXmedic
Getting Interesting
This post was edited on 8/19/14 at 6:08 pm
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:34 pm to EyeOfDaTiga1
What?! Where the shite did this come from?
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:39 pm to EyeOfDaTiga1
frick i hate this time of year. hope those model runs don't play out. still very early thankfully
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:41 pm to LSU1NSEC
The early ones are always wrong. Right?
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:42 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
The early ones are always wrong. Right?
They could be.. on the other hand though the GFS for Gustav nailed it 11 days out.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:43 pm to GEAUXmedic
Bumped up to 50% for 5 days out.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:43 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
The early ones are always wrong. Right?
there's a huge amount of uncertainty that far out - lot of people look for consistency on the major models before getting concerned (from my experience anyway)
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:45 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
there's a huge amount of uncertainty that far out - lot of people look for consistency on the major models before getting concerned (from my experience anyway)
pretty much, the GFS has consistency so far, the EURO developed the wrong wave (but still has the general pattern the same as the GFS), HWRF isn't coming out yet..
Posted on 8/19/14 at 6:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Your 18z GFS solution:
A few things to watch in the coming days:
- does a system even form?
- What happens with the ULL that is currently NW of 96L
- What kind of interaction does it have with the islands
- What happens in the EPAC
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:03 pm to rds dc
quote:
What happens with the ULL that is currently NW of 96L
fricking ULL
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:04 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
, the GFS has consistency so far,
Damn.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:08 pm to JudgeHolden
Could somebody post a link to GFS?
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:13 pm to JudgeHolden
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
I was beginning to worry we'd be uninformed by you if a hurricane were to whip up in the middle of all the Ferguson protesting fiasco.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:36 pm to GEAUXmedic
Could get interesting for sure.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:45 pm to 4LSU2
Anybody got a link to the historical tracks for storms forming in the same area at approximately the same time of year?
It always seems like a lot of them peel off north and then northeast in the Atlantic.
It always seems like a lot of them peel off north and then northeast in the Atlantic.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:49 pm to GEAUXmedic
It's football season wouldn't expect anything less than a hurricane to form for first week.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:51 pm to Methuselah
quote:
Anybody got a link to the historical tracks for storms forming in the same area at approximately the same time of year?
I'll look for it, but those maps don't really give a good idea on where storms will go.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:57 pm to TDsngumbo
The latest run of the GFS, Euro, Canadian, and the UKMET are all on-board with this thing.
With a next Tue/Wed/Thu time frame depending on path, it is still way too early to tell, but I believe this is the first time this season an undeveloped system is being developed by all 4 major global models.
Here is the latest Canadian just for kicks
With a next Tue/Wed/Thu time frame depending on path, it is still way too early to tell, but I believe this is the first time this season an undeveloped system is being developed by all 4 major global models.
Here is the latest Canadian just for kicks
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