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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:31 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:31 am to rds dc
quote:
I would be cautious with making any kind of assumptions based on that until Recon can close off a LLC (connment isn't directed at you Geaux, just a thinking out loud type) 96L still looks like a wave and vorticity could still consolidate to the N or even NE. But certainly some interesting data coming in this morning.
That was my initial thought, but those more knowledgeable than me are adamant thats where it is
... at any rate the NHC just released a special outlook saying they didn't find shite 
1
Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:43 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
That was my initial thought, but those more knowledgeable than me are adamant thats where it is
That is certainly where the area of lowest pressure is. However, not a favorable area for strengthening because of Hispaniola and "dry" air coming off the mountains. That gives time for an area farther N or NE to become the dominant LLC today until that southern area gets away from the island.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 11:26 am to rds dc
So is it coming yet or what. I need a good storm to prolong me from graduating this semester.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 12:59 pm to tigersownall
What's the latest model look like?
Posted on 8/23/14 at 1:02 pm to Navajo61490
From Bermuda to TX, somewhere in there
Posted on 8/23/14 at 1:20 pm to Navajo61490
quote:
What's the latest model look like?
ASCAT data, now being confirmed recon, indicates that this as still just a sloppy wave. Models will continue to flip around until something forms. The 12z GEFS still has a pretty wide spread and I would expect the Euro EPS to show much the same when it comes in.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 1:20 pm to Chad504boy
So basically no clue still
Posted on 8/23/14 at 1:30 pm to rds dc
We would all prefer you speak coonass, redneck, or yat. We can understand all 3 but we don't understand all this hurricane lingo.
TIA
TIA
Posted on 8/23/14 at 2:15 pm to 633tiger
I'll translate. Cajun first.
Mais, dis ting is a big cooyon of a storm! Gardez donc! It's moving slow slow, but it could get fast fast and pee-lay
us next week. Mais, I wouldn't bring da waders to da duck camp yet. You might need dose to da house!
Mais, dis ting is a big cooyon of a storm! Gardez donc! It's moving slow slow, but it could get fast fast and pee-lay
us next week. Mais, I wouldn't bring da waders to da duck camp yet. You might need dose to da house!
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 2:17 pm to JudgeHolden
Redneck: frickit.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 2:17 pm to JudgeHolden
Yat: We got enough beer?
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 2:21 pm to JudgeHolden
Posted on 8/23/14 at 3:26 pm to JudgeHolden
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:04 pm to GeauxLSU8
So..... A little bird told me TD 4 has formed.
I only bring this up because I'm bored as hell at work.
I only bring this up because I'm bored as hell at work.
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 4:05 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:18 pm to 633tiger
Was the bird coonass, redneck, or yat?
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:25 pm to CCT
Im assuming a yat - it was an adult male bird wearing a #9 knock off saints jersey from walmart 
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:28 pm to CCT
If it was a poules d'eau, Cajun
If it was a dove or a woodcock, redneck.
Eta, well played, 633.
If it was a dove or a woodcock, redneck.
Eta, well played, 633.
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:44 pm to 633tiger
quote:
We would all prefer you speak coonass, redneck, or yat. We can understand all 3 but we don't understand all this hurricane lingo.
TIA
JudgeHolden
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:45 pm to rds dc
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation
is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based
on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT
pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent
surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The
SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the
next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given
that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC
forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as
the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-
level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow
for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast
is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.
The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given
the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue
moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break
in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the
U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering
currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then
as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in
the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western
edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and
a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a
sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east
side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA
multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the
left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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