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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:51 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:51 pm to rds dc
A couple of thoughts, even though NHC uses this language:
It appears that circulation is embedded within a still sloppy broader circulation that extends to the SW. That may end up becoming the main LLC but that is something to watch over the next 12 - 24 hours.
The trend today in the models has been for less interaction between TD4 and the trough. It now comes down to how strong and how fast the two ridges build in. Is the SE ridge more dominate or does the subtropical ridge build in stronger and work to kind of kick TD4 out. As NHC says, still a highly uncertain forecast.
quote:
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
circulation this afternoon.
It appears that circulation is embedded within a still sloppy broader circulation that extends to the SW. That may end up becoming the main LLC but that is something to watch over the next 12 - 24 hours.
The trend today in the models has been for less interaction between TD4 and the trough. It now comes down to how strong and how fast the two ridges build in. Is the SE ridge more dominate or does the subtropical ridge build in stronger and work to kind of kick TD4 out. As NHC says, still a highly uncertain forecast.
2
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:53 pm to rds dc
quote:
still a highly uncertain forecast.
WEATHER!!!!!!!!!!! Gotta love it!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 8/23/14 at 4:54 pm to dukke v
COME ON BABY MEXICO MEXICO
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:07 pm to The Boat
Im in Punta Cana now and its just rain. Not much wind but the rain is fricking up my beach time.
Looks like its going through here tomorrow and we will be fine. Not really that much going on here. Just clouds and rain
Looks like its going through here tomorrow and we will be fine. Not really that much going on here. Just clouds and rain
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:45 pm to rds dc
quote:
The trend today in the models has been for less interaction between TD4 and the trough. It now comes down to how strong and how fast the two ridges build in. Is the SE ridge more dominate or does the subtropical ridge build in stronger and work to kind of kick TD4 out. As NHC says, still a highly uncertain forecast.
Does that favor this system moving more westward near and into the GOM?
Posted on 8/23/14 at 6:00 pm to TDsngumbo
It is not going into the GOM
Posted on 8/23/14 at 6:24 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
The trend today in the models has been for less interaction between TD4 and the trough.
quote:
Does that favor this system moving more westward near and into the GOM?
It only means that the solutions that were showing the system getting picked up by the trough and then rapidly accelerating out to sea probably won't verify. Only the Canadian model is still holding onto that solution.
After that, the strength and orientation of the ridges will be next up to watch. We will probably see some extra data collection over the next few days and that should help the models pin down the ridges.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 6:43 pm to madcap
quote:
It is not going into the GOM
Shhh.. Let people root for a hurricane to hit their state like morons.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:15 pm to The Boat
IMO this ones out to sea... that trough is just too strong and TD4 will get picked up easily.. now its time to move on to the waves the models are showing behind it 
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:20 pm to rds dc
quote:
Recon is back in the air tonight and anyone that is bored can follow along here. It will be interesting see what they find, since ASCAT isn't showing any west winds near the current center.
Well that might change things..
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
Translate for normals?
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
change things..
For the good right...and what is good?
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:25 pm to fatboydave
quote:
For the good right...and what is good?
It'll still be good for us.. i don't think it would come that far west.. so we don't have to deal with that shite. Maybe bad for Florida.. they sure as hell don't need that shite either.
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:26 pm to saintsfan22
Those two love talking to each other. Its like we're not even here. English mother frickers!!!
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:28 pm to 633tiger
quote:
Those two love talking to each other. Its like we're not ever here. English mother frickers!!!
The ASCAT pass shows the direction the winds are going, it didn't find west winds where the center is allegedly located, so that would mean there wasn't a true organized circulation. Recon planes are going in to see for themselves whether it is still organized.
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:35 pm to GEAUXmedic
Now that makes since!
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 10:36 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:37 pm to 633tiger
quote:
Now that makes since!
But this doesn't!
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:38 pm to 633tiger
maybe RDS can elaborate on what disorganization would mean for it's path, he knows more about what's steering this thing.This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 10:39 pm
Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:40 pm to 3HourTour
Won taht sekam ecmis.
Is that better dickhead?
Is that better dickhead?
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