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Started By
Message
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:33 am to Duke
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:33 am to Duke
quote:
GFS isn't letting that secondary lowish pressure system spin up. Wind too dry. Too NW. It kind of just washes that energy out instead of having it get more focused near us.
It's the outlier on that, but I'll note projecting that sort of thing has a high degree of uncertainty.
From what I can tell in the NWS discussions in Lake Charles and New Orleans, it seems like the operational runs of the Canadian and Euro are more bullish on snow than the ensemble mean. That seems to be the main reason they're so uncertain about wintry precipitation.
3
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:33 am to slackster
quote:
While it's still too far out to suggest spring flooding will be an issue, an abnormally cold winter east of the Rockies isn't a good start.
my understanding is that the Rockies are experiencing much lower than average snow accumulations this season.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:35 am to slackster
quote:
From what I can tell in the NWS discussions in Lake Charles and New Orleans, it seems like the operational runs of the Canadian and Euro are more bullish on snow than the ensemble mean. That seems to be the main reason they're so uncertain about wintry precipitation.
That's why they're being cautious. Which is hard to argue against.
I'm getting at why the GFS is at odds with the team commie (Canadian and Euro).
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:36 am to slackster
How cold does it need to get for the Mississippi to freeze?
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:38 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
How cold does it need to get for the Mississippi to freeze?
When it got into single digits in 1989 there were icebergs coming down the river in Baton Rouge.
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:40 am to Duke
quote:
That's why they're being cautious. Which is hard to argue against.
I'm getting at why the GFS is at odds with the team commie (Canadian and Euro).
put me on team commie
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:43 am to TheFonz
I was 8 years old but have seen a lot of pictures people took standing at the old St Francisville ferry landing
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:50 am to Duke
A look at the GFS at least coming closer to Euro/CMC with that secondary piece of energy. It's all spread out the two previous runs and looks a lot more like a contained ball at the 12z.
Shout-out to folks on stormcastforums for pointing this out/posting the gif.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:51 am to FelicianaTigerfan
The "Local on the 8s" Weather Channel segment for Alexandria, La. just called for "PM Snow Showers" on Tuesday
Posted on 12/28/17 at 11:06 am to rt3
Carl Parker
Storm Specialist/Snow Buzz Kill
Storm Specialist/Snow Buzz Kill
Posted on 12/28/17 at 11:07 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
How cold does it need to get for the Mississippi to freeze?
To freeze solid? Not sure.
This was the Mississippi River in 1940 in Alton, Missouri.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 11:10 am to slackster
Red River at Shreve in '83,
quote:
Arctic air mass December 21st-27th caused 138 consecutive hours of below freezing temps.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 11:35 am to AlxTgr
so if I'm offshore and supposed to come home on Wednesday and we crew change out of Lake Charles, when can i expect to come home? Saturday?
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 11:44 am
Posted on 12/28/17 at 11:39 am to dukke v
quote:
This potential Event IS a bad sign for people in LA... we are prepared for an event like this... cold is one thing but 3-4 inches of snow is another.... up north .... they get 3-4 inches of snow and roll right along... down here it will shut down the whole area... bridges will close and traffic will be an even bigger cluster than usual
But you said no way it would happen a few pages back...so nothing to worry about right?
Posted on 12/28/17 at 12:29 pm to slackster
My hometown in IL is looking at going a month straight without temperatures breaking freezing (Per Accuweather). Last day with a high above freezing was 12/22 and the next forecasted day with a high above freezing is 1/24 (with a high of 33 degrees). Of course, things can change.
The normal high is around 31/32 degrees through January, which usually means a few days below freezing, followed by a few days above, and then once per winter a good 1-2 week deep freeze.
The normal high is around 31/32 degrees through January, which usually means a few days below freezing, followed by a few days above, and then once per winter a good 1-2 week deep freeze.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 12:33 pm to Duke
Lake Charles Ben Terry was on earlier and admitted that the Euro is more accurate in the winter months (not sure how or why that works out).
He goes on to show the dry pattern of the GFS and then goes on to show the snow pattern of the EURO. So were still sort of in the dark about what’s going on.
He goes on to show the dry pattern of the GFS and then goes on to show the snow pattern of the EURO. So were still sort of in the dark about what’s going on.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 12:37 pm to Prominentwon
Euro coming in a tad bit colder than the last run through 120 hours...
Posted on 12/28/17 at 12:43 pm to slackster
where can you find the euro precip models?
Posted on 12/28/17 at 12:45 pm to LakeViewLSU
Posted on 12/28/17 at 12:47 pm to slackster
While colder through the earlier parts of the run, the 12z has completely eliminated the snowfall in LA through Wednesday.
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