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Message
re: Danny - no longer a threat
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:00 am to rmnldr
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:00 am to rmnldr
98L makes it to the Bahamas on its latest run (GFS) and looks to be quite strong, even a major perhaps? There is a chance for it to recurve but it is oh so close to getting stuck with a ridge building in. Of course, this is 10 days out and only one run. Will change a ton by then but should be a good one to watch. I didn't think we would have anything to track long term this season and now maybe 2 in a row?
This post was edited on 8/23/15 at 12:02 am
4
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:01 am to rmnldr
So you're saying there's a chance
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:02 am to BigB0882
Should be interesting. I've been researching weather and meteorology a lot recently and it's caught my interest. Maybe I'm in school for the wrong thing 
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:03 am to BigB0882
quote:
98L makes it to the Bahamas on its latest run (GFS)
GFS also put Danny into the Florida panhandle as a cat 6 or something absurd.
it's not a good tropical model right now.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:06 am to rmnldr
quote:
Should be interesting. I've been researching weather and meteorology a lot recently and it's caught my interest. Maybe I'm in school for the wrong thing
if you're actually interested, keep in mind it's essentially a math degree with a little more physical science. Some of the people I graduated with got dual majors in math because they only needed like 3 more courses after they fulfilled their meteorology requirements.
The people I know who didn't make it through with meteorology all hit the wall due to the math... usually Calc 3 or differential equations.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:06 am to baytiger
quote:
GFS also put Danny into the Florida panhandle as a cat 6 or something absurd.
it's not a good tropical model right now.
The 18z dissipated the system over Cuba as it works towards the Gulf. Are you talking about the 00z? Haven't seen that run yet.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:07 am to BigB0882
quote:
The 18z dissipated the system over Cuba as it works towards the Gulf. Are you talking about the 00z? Haven't seen that run yet.
no, I'm talking about ~3 days ago.
eta: not to downplay that result entirely. 98L still has a long way to go and a lot of potential solutions, and the ECMWF also supports an Atlantic track with intensification off the east coast. I'm just saying that the GFS has not been a very good tropical model and it should be taken with a grain of salt, especially past 180 hours.
This post was edited on 8/23/15 at 12:10 am
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:12 am to baytiger
Oh, well what the GFS showed 3 days ago is long forgotten by me. lol
I am aware the GFS has been unreliable, ever since that upgrade it has seemed to perform worse, IMO.
I do keep an eye on it though because when it agrees with the Euro I tend to really pay attention. So if the GFS shows something interesting then I make sure to wait for the next run of the Euro and see what it says. ANY model more than 5 days out is unreliable.
I am aware the GFS has been unreliable, ever since that upgrade it has seemed to perform worse, IMO.
I do keep an eye on it though because when it agrees with the Euro I tend to really pay attention. So if the GFS shows something interesting then I make sure to wait for the next run of the Euro and see what it says. ANY model more than 5 days out is unreliable.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:14 am to BigB0882
quote:that's not entirely true... but yeah, 5 days out isn't terribly useful for prediction landfall locations and hurricane intensities. The models are getting pretty decent at forecasting synoptic situations that far out.
ANY model more than 5 days out is unreliable.
I have coworkers who use the GFS/ECMWF to forecast temperatures 2+ weeks out.
This post was edited on 8/23/15 at 12:15 am
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:22 am to baytiger
quote:
baytiger
Thanks for the info.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 1:00 am to BigB0882
Thread title calls Danny a cat 1 but the track graphics are titled "Tropical storm Danny".
Which is it? A TS or cat 1?
Which is it? A TS or cat 1?
Posted on 8/23/15 at 1:01 am to BigB0882
Thread title calls Danny a cat 1 but the track graphics are titled "Tropical storm Danny".
Which is it? A TS or cat 1?
Which is it? A TS or cat 1?
Posted on 8/23/15 at 1:04 am to LesMiles BFF
it's at best a TS right now. OP is slow on the updates.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 1:05 am to baytiger
looks like the low level circulation is completely exposed now... getting sheared to bits
Posted on 8/23/15 at 7:27 am to baytiger
Danny is trying to fight back this morning but should eventually lose this battle as shear continues to increase today. Radar is looking better this morning (image on left) but you can see how a weaker system is tracking south of the forecasted track.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 8:12 am to baytiger
quote:
eta: not to downplay that result entirely. 98L still has a long way to go and a lot of potential solutions, and the ECMWF also supports an Atlantic track with intensification off the east coast.
98L came off Africa with another burst of SAL, you can actually see the dust in the hi-res from yesterday
So it will face some of the same challenges that Danny faced but it will also have the assistance and protection of the AEJ as it tracks west. However, it won't have the benefit of the enhanced phased of an eastward tracking KW. It should stay weak until 60W or so and that will likely keep it to the south with more of a westward component to it's motion. Things look pretty suppressed until almost the islands
quote:
I'm just saying that the GFS has not been a very good tropical model and it should be taken with a grain of salt, especially past 180 hours.
The upgraded GFS is better than the old but the Feds have not given NOAA the computing power that is need to compete with the Europeans. Until we get upgraded supercomputers the GFS won't be able to run the latest data assimilation, upgraded physics packages, or be able to increase vertical resolution. There really isn't any added benefit of running the operational GFS out to two weeks but it doesn't really take any extra resources since the end of the run is at a lower resolution. Hopefully, the upgraded ensemble package will help with the long range stuff but it still won't compare to the higher res Euro ensembles or weeklies or monthlies.
ETA: I should mention that most, if not all, forecasting offices have access to Euro data. Sometimes you will see forecast packages delayed so that the Euro data can be reviewed.
ETA: Early morning tracks for 98L
This post was edited on 8/23/15 at 8:27 am
Posted on 8/23/15 at 8:15 am to rds dc
How many lesbian weight studies would that computer upgrade cost?
Posted on 8/23/15 at 8:22 am to udtiger
My personal policy is to not comment in budget issues but I'm sure someone on the poli board would gladly comment.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 9:11 am to rds dc
Seriously, what's the cost? I can do the math myself.
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