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Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:30 pm to TDsngumbo
Your Katrina one is still BR area only wrong. BR was 100 miles from landfall. 60 miles to the west still keeps BR on the west side. BR would have been roughly where Jefferson Parish was during the storm. Jefferson Parish had 90 mph winds.. far below Cat 3 strength. And BR is way further inland. It would have been a lot like Gustav.. Hardly destroyed. Lengthy power outages and downed trees.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:48 pm to The Boat
The models are definitely making this much more interesting than I thought it would be. Many of them shoot this right to the NE Caribbean and from there into the SE Bahamas. If that ridge flexes its muscle and builds further west then this thing reaches the Gulf and Louisiana better watch out. Of course, that is a LONG way off and it could end up in Mexico or out to sea at this point or it could die long before getting to the coast. The latest run of the GFS has this riding up the West coast of Florida at the end of the run, that is too close for comfort. However, at that many days out, I think it is safe to say that one place this storm wont hit is Tampa. Models hardly ever get it right that far out. lol (sorry, I probably just jinxed Tampa)
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:50 pm to BigB0882
quote:
Many of them shoot this right to the NE Caribbean and from there into the SE Bahamas. If that ridge flexes its muscle and builds further west then this thing reaches the Gulf and Louisiana better watch out. Of course, that is a LONG way off and it could end up in Mexico or out to sea at this point or it could die long before getting to the coast. The latest run of the GFS has this riding up the West coast of Florida at the end of the run, that is too close for comfort. However, at that many days out, I think it is safe to say that one place this storm wont hit is Tampa.
Thanks for narrowing it down for us. I feel better now.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:57 pm to The Boat
I stand corrected 
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:57 pm to BigB0882
quote:
The latest run of the GFS has this riding up the West coast of Florida at the end of the run, that is too close for comfort.
I remember another storm that was supposed to turn north...
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:59 pm to GEAUXmedic
i hate hurricane season
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:59 pm to GEAUXmedic
I was literally just about to post that about Katrina!! That track just kept moving further and further west.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:00 pm to TDsngumbo
GOM. Funny one
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:10 pm to TDsngumbo
on the 1-Lootie scale, how bad is Danny going to be if it makes it in the Gulf?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:13 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I remember another storm that was supposed to turn north...
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:22 pm to lsuwontonwrap
Say we take the latest GFS at face value... it hits Tampa at hr 334... THATS 14 DAYS AWAY! Models are completely useless at 14 days away, even a week away. What you should look at in long range models is not the track of a storm, but the synoptic scale patterns shown and what trends you see between runs.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:22 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
i hate hurricane season
I dont. The time of year when shite starts happening.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:25 pm to TDsngumbo
I went swimming in the caribbean sea today and it feels like a hot tub. So yall are boned if it heads yalls way. I'm in the lesser antilles and we are gonna get hit but luckily I will be in the USA next week, but the authorities have already told me to get ready. The price of beer went up by 20% in 2 hours.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
To offer credit though, it did stay within the white zone on the forecast the whole time.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:39 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
To offer credit though, it did stay within the white zone on the forecast the whole time.
And to play the other side, it ended up to the left of the original cone i posted.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:45 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:32 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
Levi from tropical tidbits just put out an updated video on Danny.
Levi really knows his stuff and doesn't hype things but don't hold it against him that he chose to attend grad school at FSU
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:35 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I remember another storm that was supposed to turn north..
Really? Come on! You forgot Andrew
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:40 pm to rds dc
quote:
Levi really knows his stuff and doesn't hype things but don't hold it against him that he chose to attend grad school at FSU
No doubt Levi is one of the best. Been following him since he first started undergrad. He's always been exceptionally good with storms.
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