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Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:43 pm to GEAUXmedic
Farmer's Almanac:
LINK
SEPTEMBER 2015
1st-3rd. Hurricane threat Gulf Coast; fair elsewhere.
14 days away is Sept. 1st.
LINK
SEPTEMBER 2015
1st-3rd. Hurricane threat Gulf Coast; fair elsewhere.
14 days away is Sept. 1st.
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 9:46 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:43 pm to rds dc
quote:I didn't even apply to FSU. It's not a coincidence that I chose Valpo.. that was just about the furthest school from my parents
Levi really knows his stuff and doesn't hype things but don't hold it against him that he chose to attend grad school at FSU
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:46 pm to baytiger
quote:
I think the best part is that the 850-200mb wind shear just kind of dies as the storm progesses. Like it's just opening a door for the storm to pass through.
I don't buy it yet.
Yeah, the upper level trough lifts out with perfect timing allowing shear to decrease and the system to lift N. Then the ridge builds in just at the right time to turn it back towards the Keys and the Gulf. I mean the 18z run scores worse than 12z and 00z, its out past the resolution chop, and who knows what impact the Pacific typhoons will have on the long range but other than that, it's golden.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:59 pm to rds dc
True color image from earlier today
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:11 pm to rds dc
It's gonna be a big one folks
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:14 pm to Serraneaux
man, i'm hoping this thing gets sheared apart
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:24 pm to rds dc
I heard today that it looks like the new hi res GOES is going to be delayed until at least October 2017 (and operational even later). Every time I see a hi res satellite image I get sadder.
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 10:42 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:25 pm to Serraneaux
quote:
It's gonna be a big one folks
Assuming you are being literal:
That is an interesting point because some of the major models keep forecasting this as a very small storm. Maybe dry air entrainment will shrink this thing down but it is already much bigger than they predict and stronger, as well. I wonder if the models will vary greatly in track if they initialize their runs with a system that is larger?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:43 pm to BigB0882
Damn. Just moved down to the Coast and looks like I'll already be on evacuation watch.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:44 pm to shutterspeed
00z GFS is rolling out, so far on the same track as of hr 24, but a lot stronger than on 18z.
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 10:45 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:45 pm to shutterspeed
Is there a ball park date when it would make landfall if it was to hit between Houston and landmass?
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 10:46 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:46 pm to GEAUXmedic
I understand a lot is still unknown, but what's a rough estimate of landfall if it were to hit the gulf coast? A week or so?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:48 pm to UpToPar
quote:
I understand a lot is still unknown, but what's a rough estimate of landfall if it were to hit the gulf coast? A week or so?
Northern gulf landing 12-14 days
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:53 pm to SippyCup
Thanks.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:37 pm to GEAUXmedic
I'm more interested in the 00Z euro to be completely honest. Although at least this GFS has Danny persisting in the shear instead of parting it like the Red Sea
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:43 pm to GEAUXmedic
So it looks like the shear turns it north..but if it survives said shear it might very well work it's way back into the gulf? I know its too early to tell at this point for the most part.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:43 pm to baytiger
This gettin good. What happened to the year long hurricane thread?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:46 pm to tigersownall
it's still there. you might just need a shovel to find it
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