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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:27 am to EveryoneGetsATrophy
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:27 am to EveryoneGetsATrophy
Its the first time I've seen it slow.
Thanks for the heads up though
Thanks for the heads up though
0
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:44 am to rds dc
It's looking like Dorian is going to miss PR to the right and there may be little disruption to the system. We might only see a slowing in the strengthening process vs degradation of the circulation.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:46 am to rds dc
I was gonna say looks like this will miss PR, well the actual center.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:47 am to Duke
Whens the last time a M hurricane came so close to Orlando?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:50 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Just stop with this BS. This path so far looks nothing like Katrina. Or Betsy. Or Andrew. Paths don’t mean shite and the only reason people use those names is for drama. It’s starting to look like Dorian. That’s what it looks like.
A smart person knows that no 2 storms are going to have the identical same path.
I use the comparison as an analog of sorts to compare the weather conditions and steering currents to compare and explain where a storm has the potential to be going.
Nash and Joe Bastardi used these comparisons.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:50 am to BadBrad29
2004... the year of all those storms.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:52 am to DawgCountry
Mother fricker this escalated quickly. 24 hours ago the advisory had landfall as a tropical storm at best. It’s gonna be a 4-5 at landfall at the rate this is going
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:56 am to deltaland
Every time a northerly system makes a turn west in the Atlantic it strengthens. Looks like they have Dorian doing that same.
That bend does something and the steering current makes conditions right for rapid development.
That bend does something and the steering current makes conditions right for rapid development.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:57 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
have a beach wedding to be at on Sunday(6:30pm) in Key West. I’m leaving Thursday night to drive to Fort Lauderdale to stay with a friend and then early Friday morning driving the rest of the way to the Keys.
Find something else to do
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:59 am to The Boat
quote:
That bend does something
Something to do with the Gulf Stream maybe?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:59 am to deltaland
He will be okay going to the Keys, getting back however in that time frame 
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:00 pm to BadBrad29
quote:
Whens the last time a M hurricane came so close to Orlando?
Hurricane Charley plowed right through Orlando in 2004.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:02 pm to The Boat
quote:
Every time a northerly system makes a turn west in the Atlantic it strengthens. Looks like they have Dorian doing that same.
Typically it means it's just being steered by the ridge and thus the steering is aligned with the motion. That's a nice low shear environment. Same will be true with Dorian. As it rounds the upper low and goes west, the upper low will also have flow pushing west. Before that, the upper low will be pushing north as the ridge pushes west. It's misaligned providing shear.
Dorian is expected to get some help ventilating from some upper troughs and lows positioned around it. Sets up a few nice outflow channels. Upper divergence helps increase the surface convergence, sucks up more heat and translates to lower pressures.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:07 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Starting to resemble Katrina’s path
Idiot
He's not wrong. Dorian is forming in the same area of the Carribean where Katrina formed and blew threw the Bahamas and was headed in the same direction Dorian is headed now until it made a W-SW turn. Andrew developed 650 miles East of Nassau and tracked almost due West for 1,000 miles until a gradual turn in the Gulf.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:07 pm to Duke
IR convection over center blowing up last few frames
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:09 pm to Cosmo
quote:
IR convection over center blowing up last few frames
Still pulsing convection with some dry air still getting in there but it's been more sustained this morning for sure.
Looking at San Juan radar, it's got about half an eyewall on the east side. Nice to have that radar in range for this part of the journey.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:10 pm to Duke
quote:
Typically it means it's just being steered by the ridge and thus the steering is aligned with the motion. That's a nice low shear environment. Same will be true with Dorian. As it rounds the upper low and goes west, the upper low will also have flow pushing west. Before that, the upper low will be pushing north as the ridge pushes west. It's misaligned providing shear.
Dorian is expected to get some help ventilating from some upper troughs and lows positioned around it. Sets up a few nice outflow channels. Upper divergence helps increase the surface convergence, sucks up more heat and translates to lower pressures.
Yep. Bend to the left.. pretty strong development happens.
Basic rules for anyone who watches these things.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:12 pm to lsugolfredman
quote:
12Z Icon wants to pound Miami and head west. Upper Level Low on Louisianas coast will be an interesting player in where this run will make a second landfall.
Wonder which way that ULL will drift? If it moves south or southwest that’s bad news because the spin will align with Dorian and catapult it into Louisiana, and help strengthen it rather than shear it. If it moves east or north it will shear Dorian
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:12 pm to rds dc
Something to watch for is how quickly Dorian can filter out the dry air in it's larger circulation. The 12z HWRF shows some struggles and weakens the system from hour 30 - 36.
Nuances like this and the motion of ULL are hard for models to resolve and could help to keep Dorian from going off.
Nuances like this and the motion of ULL are hard for models to resolve and could help to keep Dorian from going off.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:16 pm to deltaland
Know it’s early still but it keeps getting more ugly for those of us in Central Florida. Fortunately I’m not on the coast but lost power for about a week with Irma 2 years ago.
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