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Started By
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re: los angeles county shuts down outdoor dining.....these public officials are demented.
Posted on 11/23/20 at 11:17 am to kciDAtaE
Posted on 11/23/20 at 11:17 am to kciDAtaE
Just moved to South Carolina from DC and couldn’t be happier. Feel like I have a lot of my life back already. Meanwhile Virginia and DC are going back to shutting things down. Clowns, all of them.
0
Posted on 11/23/20 at 11:29 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
people who were stuffed in lockers in high school and grew to hate the world
quote:
HailHailtoMichigan
Oh yea
This post was edited on 11/23/20 at 11:29 am
Posted on 11/23/20 at 11:43 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
leave the country then. it's that simple.
Posted on 11/23/20 at 11:47 am to Green Chili Tiger
quote:
Green Chili Tiger
This was always a foolish position. It was, I guess, half right. It was definitely used to drum up fear leading up to the election, but anyone who thought those Democratic politicians were going to let go of their newly grasped powers was kidding themselves.
With tyrants, expect tyranny.
Posted on 11/23/20 at 11:48 am to 56lsu
You get off to the thought people are losing their livelihoods right now. You love these shutdowns because it puts those nasty hard working people who don’t think correctly in their place while you are unaffected.
You are a serious piece of shite.
You are a serious piece of shite.
Posted on 11/23/20 at 11:48 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Good thing The French Laundry is not in Los Angeles County
Posted on 11/23/20 at 12:14 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
why do you care about California?
Posted on 11/23/20 at 12:22 pm to kciDAtaE
quote:What does Trump have to do LA county closing outdoor dining?
we should blame the elected officials in the government? Like Trump? Or just the liberals? And Republicans get a pass?
Posted on 11/23/20 at 1:01 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Show me where they have worked. And, if you agree that it's after the peak, how have they worked?
They've worked all over the world. Why do you think the infections are coming in waves? Look at Sweden's curve compared to those of countries that are forcing lockdowns on their citizens. Sweden's ramps up a lot, then gradually comes down to almost nothing, and it stays that way for six months before a tiny recent bump. That is the curve of a country with no lockdowns (only bans against large gatherings).
Compare Sweden's curve with that of countries that keep locking down and letting up. Their infection curves are much more cyclic. I'm not a fan of these lockdowns, but to say they have no effect is silly.
If you want to make the case that the number of deaths at the end of the epidemic (and in the absence of vaccines) is unaffected by lockdowns, I'm in basic agreement with that, except for the case of overwhelmed health care resulting in deaths that were preventable.
Again, Sweden: If we developed a reliable vaccine three months into CV-19, then Sweden's policy choice would have proved costly in terms of human life. If a vaccine is never developed, Sweden probably saves human life due to less depression, etc. based on how long it is actually taking, I prefer the Swedish method, but it's open to debate.
Posted on 11/23/20 at 1:03 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
los angeles county shuts down outdoor dining
Posted on 11/23/20 at 1:20 pm to Penrod
quote:
They've worked all over the world.
Oh yeah? Show me. And not some modeling paper that suggests things could have been better if certain mitigations were implemented earlier. Actual, real world data.
quote:
Why do you think the infections are coming in waves?
Seasonality.
First wave nailed Europe and the Northeast USA, and Louisiana (late winter/early spring: low sun, tail end of respiratory illness season, people inside with central heat blaring). LA was nailed because of Mardi Gras.
Second wave in the US South, including LA (less so in NOLA this time): Summer...people are inside with central AC blaring to beat the heat. These increases happened up to two months in some places after restrictions were lifted.
Third wave Europe and US despite places still having restrictions: entering fall/winter...low sun, respiratory illness season.
As you've already acknowledged, mitigation efforts have usually been enacted after the disease has already peaked in a location. What caused illness to peak if it wasn't the mitigation put into effect since they managed to peak without them?
There is a clear correlation between latitude and timing of viral/death peaks.
Check out that paper I linked earlier. Latitude discussion is in there too.
This post was edited on 11/23/20 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 11/23/20 at 1:32 pm to jcaz
quote:
People will now just pile into to-go lines. Will have zero effect on sToPpInG tHe sPrEaD
Over this whole thing I've seen far more crowded restaurant entries or bar pick up areas than I have packed dining rooms/patios. Cramming people into a small space to wait for a to go order - brilliant
Posted on 11/23/20 at 1:56 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Oh yeah? Show me.
Look at the current UK data. They locked down on Nov 5. The scaremongering had the effect of causing many to isolate sooner than the mandatory Nov 5th date. The peak in cases comes one week later on about Nov 12, and the case rate has been declining since. Deaths appear to peak on the 18th. In short, this is a perfect graph that shows the exact effect expected of a lockdown.
I'm an incompetent image poster, but here's the Worldometer link.
Worldometer for UK CV-19
Seriously, though, I'm shocked that I'm encountering argument on this. Let's say we took every human in the USA and isolated each person for a month. Surely you must agree that we would eradicate the virus from the human US population? Maybe it would bounce back due to animals (or Europeans, which are much the same thing) reintroducing them, but temporarily we would greatly affect the spread. True? If true this has disastrous consequences for an argument that states that lockdowns have no effect.
And I know I'm belabotrinng this point, but why is Sweden's second wave so puny relative to every other European country? It's because Sweden did not lock down, and the others did. Ipso facto, lockdowns had an effect!
This post was edited on 11/23/20 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 11/23/20 at 2:22 pm to Penrod
quote:
Look at the current UK data. They locked down on Nov 5. The scaremongering had the effect of causing many to isolate sooner than the mandatory Nov 5th date. The peak in cases comes one week later on about Nov 12, and the case rate has been declining since. Deaths appear to peak on the 18th. In short, this is a perfect graph that shows the exact effect expected of a lockdown.
Worldometer can be handy, but I wouldn't trust their numbers.
UK's official data puts the peak in positive collected specimens on November 2nd (15.1% positivity), but the peak in rolling average on Novermber 10th (positivity was down to 12.7% by Nov. 9th). It should be noted that November 2nd had high positive numbers with low testing numbers for the days to follow.
Their date of death data also puts deaths peaking on the 9th (number) and 11th (rolling average).
So, once again more virus out and about before a mitigation measure was put into effect than after.
quote:
Surely you must agree that we would eradicate the virus from the human US population?
Because we'd eradicate the human US population?
Look at Argentina and Peru. They've been under strict, military lockdowns since March or April, and are among the world leaders in deaths per million.
quote:
It's because Sweden did not lock down, and the others did. Ipso facto, lockdowns had an effect!
Wait...you've been arguing that lockdowns have a negative effect this whole time?
This post was edited on 11/23/20 at 2:31 pm
Posted on 11/23/20 at 2:41 pm to Penrod
quote:
They've worked all over the world.
You are being lied to. They haven't.
shite, California has had strict protocols for almost 7 months now and it obviously hasnt worked there if they are implementing this bullshite.
You can stay home, let others do as they please.
You nor anyone else have been made totalitarian in America. Yet at least
Posted on 11/23/20 at 3:16 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Wait...you've been arguing that lockdowns have a negative effect this whole time?
I'm against lockdowns and in favor of the Swedish methods. Lockdowns obviously slow the virus spread. Any argument to the contrary is, as I pointed out earlier, like arguing over what happens to a dropped object.
The trouble with lockdowns is that they cause all kinds of other misery and they leave us with a population with a higher reproductive factor than we would otherwise have had. So it's pay me now or pay me later plus a lot of folks are going to suffer from untreated glaucoma (I know a guy who lost an eye over this), untreated heart disease, depression, etc.
The Swedes said from the get-go that they were assuming a posture that could be sustained until a virus was produced. I think they did an admirable job. I wish we had done the same.
This post was edited on 11/23/20 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 11/23/20 at 3:19 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Look at Argentina and Peru. They've been under strict, military lockdowns since March or April, and are among the world leaders in deaths per million.
These are not good comparisons. Have you ever been to these coutries? Seen how millions of them live cheek to jowl in shanty towns. There is no way of these people locking down.
Posted on 11/23/20 at 3:20 pm to The Hurricane
quote:
Elections have results.
Yup. People are about to get the covid mandates they voted for.
Posted on 11/23/20 at 3:28 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Staffed by people who were stuffed in lockers in high school
Leave WestCoast dildo out of this
Posted on 11/23/20 at 3:59 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I hate it for small business owners. But if it isn’t safe for schools to open then it isn’t safe for bars and restaurants to allow gatherings either. All that being said, I am not advocating for more closures I just think it should follow logic. We are stunting an entire generation of children.
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