Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning* | Page 10 | O-T Lounge
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re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:49 pm to
Posted by BornCritic
Member since Nov 2020
696 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:49 pm to
Let's all agree right here and now not to shovel snow into our neighbors yards.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

LSUGrrrl

Major cold/snow event for the south V-Day weekend?
Dallas looking to get any of this?


I have a layover in Dallas next Saturday..If I get stuck you have extra room for me to crash?
Posted by BornCritic
Member since Nov 2020
696 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:55 pm to
Will I be able to drive from Houston to Dallas and back to Houston at 1am Saturday morning in this storm? Just getting it out of the way early.
Posted by BluegrassBelle
RIP Hefty Lefty - 1981-2019
Member since Nov 2010
107030 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

Let's all agree right here and now not to shovel snow into our neighbors yards.


I will only agree to not shovel snow into my respectful neighbor's yard.

The trash arse on the other side gettin' some snow.
Posted by BornCritic
Member since Nov 2020
696 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 5:01 pm to
quote:


The trash arse on the other side gettin' some snow


What could go wrong?
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
45648 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

have a layover in Dallas next Saturday..If I get stuck you have extra room for me to crash?

You get stuck here, you won’t be leaving the airport. Getting to my house would be like a deer wearing high heels on a frozen pond.
Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29664 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 5:19 pm to
quote:

20 degrees isn’t uncomfortably cold. Grow a pair




Our cabin in Idaho regularly sees -10.
I will take that any day of the week over 20 in Louisiana.

River valleys are colder.

We brought two baws down here from Saskatchewan to limit on deer a few years back. Between 20-30 and we were dressed out just like in Canada. They were laughing. 10 minutes into the boat ride they were huddled together wrapped in my hunting coat.

Wet cold sucks arse.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

You get stuck here, you won’t be leaving the airport. Getting to my house would be like a deer wearing high heels on a frozen pond.



I've been stuck in Dallas during cold weather before....it's like it doesnt snow in Dallas..it just gets iced over and thats even worse than snow
Posted by 24nights
North of I10
Member since Apr 2012
5268 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 5:25 pm to
quote:

high heels
quote:

LSUGrrrl


Pics?
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 5:27 pm to
Will I be able to fly out of Baton Rouge to Punta Cana friday afternoon?
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
298305 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 5:34 pm to
quote:

Let's all agree right here and now not to shovel snow into our neighbors yards.


The city plow dudes are experts at this. particularly driveways. Usually right after yours has been plowed or shoveled.
Posted by kingmanfish
Nowheresville Louisiana
Member since Jan 2021
17 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 6:02 pm to
This global warming shite is freezing me to death
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15442 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 6:13 pm to
quote:

614
FXUS64 KLIX 042242
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
442 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...Well we hope everyone enjoyed the sun and warm
weather today because it may be 60 hrs till we see the sun again. We
were able to warm up quickly today with much of the area already in
the 60s by 16z. Temperatures continue to climb ranging from the
upper 60s in southwest MS and coastal MS to around 72 in some
portions of SELA. Clouds have been increasing through the day but
there have been more than enough breaks to allow a good bit of sun.

Main concern in the short term is mainly in the next 36 hrs. A cold
front is on the way and it will bring at least light rain across all
of the region overnight tonight and through tomorrow. Strong s/w
currently moving through the Upper and Mid Ms Valley will push into
the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. This is the system that
is driving our cold front down which at 21z was already beginning to
enter into northwestern LA and will continue to surge south likely
entering the far northwestern portions of the CWA around 4z. After
that the cold front will begin to lose its support and slow down.
The s/w will be pushing east and remaining well north of the area
with mid level flow remaining zonal. Initially any rain will see
overnight will be almost completely forced by the cold front and
likely be a rather narrow band of rain. This though looks to change
tomorrow as the front stalls over the northern Gulf.

Friday is a rather tricky forecast. This pattern doesn`t suggest or
support a dense cold dry airmass sliding into our area. All models
seem to suggest a very dry airmass working in behind the cold front
but we have some questions about that. First looking up stream the
sfc high is barely 1020mb and this doesn`t suggest a rather dense
cold airmass. Models right now don`t seem to be too far off with the
observed dewpoints up stream but may be overdoing the surge south.
What does this mean, well if that really dry LL air works into the
region overnight and early tomorrow then highs could be even colder
than what we currently have in the forecast and we are already below
much of the guidance. The other issue could be some light no impact
winter weather tomorrow at the onset of the next batch of precip.

As the cold front drops into the Gulf and stalls isentropic lift
looks to quickly set up. This could allow light showers to begin to
develop rather early and scattered to numerous light and possibly
moderate showers before midday. If this occurs that fast or faster
along with the drier air working into southwest Ms and across the
border into LA we can not rule out a little sleet at the onset of
precip. SFC will be well abv freezing but with the LL dry initially
and then increasing precip aloft evaporative cooling should allow
the column to cool enough with whatever precip initially falls to
remain below freezing until about 925-950mb. If the precip was
harder it could even be snow but that does not look likely. Now
before everyone gets there hopes up, if and this is a big if sleet
occurs, it will be very short lived as we quickly transition to a
cold cold rain. Again not confident at all that there will be any
sleet as we are not quite buying the intensity of the dry air
advertised by some of the models. NBM and most of the models keep
EVERYTHING liquid for that matter. With clouds, rain, and a colder
airmass moving in, combined with evaporative cooling tomorrow looks
to be rather miserable. Highs in the forecast currently range from
the upper 40s in southwest MS to mid 50s along coastal Ms and the
southshore. There is a chance this could still be too warm so don`t
be surprised if the forecast gets adjusted cooler tonight.

Heading into the weekend Saturday will at least start out dreary and
cold and depending on how fast the rain can move out we may be able
to dry out late Saturday afternoon. Another potent s/w will work
across the MS Valley Saturday afternoon and evening and this bring
one last gasp of rain to the area. We quickly move into zonal flow
overnight and all of the rain will shift east providing a dry
Sunday. Sunday will be about 7-10 degrees warmer than Saturday but
that will mainly be because of lack of cloud, lack of rain, and more
sun to help warm the sfc. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...Confidence is still all over the place with respect to
the extended portion of the forecast. Confidence is increasing in
the forecast for Monday and Tuesday which look to be warm and then
after Tuesday the spread of solutions get greater and greater with
time. Overall we continued to stick closer to the NBM for the
forecast with the exception of highs on Monday and Tuesday.

Very broad L/W trough will continue to dominate much if not all of
the CONUS to start the work week with mostly zonal to wsw flow
aloft. This pattern doesn`t really change until late in the work
week as a lot of energy looks to work down the backside of the L/W
trough causing it amplify and this could drive a rather frigid
airmass well into the country.

Prior to that the wsw flow aloft will keep things on the warmer side
along with possibility of a weak impulse or two work over the
region. That would provide some small rain chances to the region but
the main impact we see will be temperatures, climbing. Once again we
have opted to go abv much of the guidance for highs Monday and
especially Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday could be in the 70s across the
entire region. 70-90% of the ECS runs have highs greater than 70 and
the NBM mean has highs in the mid 70s across most of the area.

Obviously many people have heard rumors about late next weekend and
weekend. This is still outside of the current forecast and
confidence in any solution is abysmal however, the pattern that is
expected and current set up we currently have, suggest a significant
Arctic airmass working south into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS.
CPC is showing very high probabilities of see below to well below
normal temperatures for the mid to late February. Yes some models
are trying to indicate the possibility of winter precip in the south
late next week and weekend but there is so much spread in the models
and ensembles that it would be futile to forecast that right now.
The GFES mean is about 15-20 degrees warmer than the ECS mean so
that alone shows the variability in this forecast.
/CAB/
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
73284 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 6:58 pm to
Who wrote that discussion?
Posted by Yaboylaroy
Member since Mar 2010
1846 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

Gonna be nice and warm next to your woman.


Set you up for that lay up with that one
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15442 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 10:31 pm to


Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 10:33 pm to
The Boat
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15442 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 10:44 pm to
the witches tit might be seen next weekend
This post was edited on 2/4/21 at 10:46 pm
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 10:48 pm to
That total snowfall has to be overdone. 9 inches in Biloxi? If that’s the case we’re fricked

I dig the trend though. Consistently showing snow
This post was edited on 2/4/21 at 10:50 pm
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93319 posts
Posted on 2/4/21 at 10:53 pm to
I’m still in line for 20” in New Mexico!

The skiing will be great.
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