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Started By
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re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:29 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:29 am to TDsngumbo
GFS showing between Fri - Sun highs in low 20s and lows in the teens for SLA for multiple days, saturday looks to barely get out of the teens during the day!
and the CMC agrees with it already!
and the CMC agrees with it already!
1
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:31 am to DVinBR
Yep! Tonight’s runs are an absolute shite show for southern Louisiana - especially the BR to north shore areas.
If I’m being honest, I have to say I don’t think tonight’s runs will actually be reality. My mind just can’t wrap itself around highs barely getting out of the teens for days with an inch of freezing rain.
If I’m being honest, I have to say I don’t think tonight’s runs will actually be reality. My mind just can’t wrap itself around highs barely getting out of the teens for days with an inch of freezing rain.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:33 am to TDsngumbo
A little early prep isn't a bad idea. The cold air supply looks like the real deal. Lot of reasons why a low would spin up on the coast. Ingredients are going to all be there.
Have fun model watching for the next few days. I'm not really going to dig in until Sunday.
Have fun model watching for the next few days. I'm not really going to dig in until Sunday.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:34 am to TDsngumbo
Agreed, but my god am i addicted to tracking this and constantly updating for newest models. I should be sleeping
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:38 am to Duke
quote:
A little early prep isn't a bad idea. The cold air supply looks like the real deal. Lot of reasons why a low would spin up on the coast. Ingredients are going to all be there
That’s what sparks my interest so much with this - the fact that actual meteorologists on another forum are sounding the alarms about this. They’re all saying the same thing - that the ingredients are all there for a significant event. I’ve never seen so much confidence among them in a winter weather event this far out.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:38 am to trussthetruzz
if this keeps holding this thread will turn into an equivalent hurricane thread
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:38 am to trussthetruzz
quote:
Agreed, but my god am i addicted to tracking this and constantly updating for newest models. I should be sleeping
Trust me. Sleep now. If your think it's bad now, wait till you're still tracking this two days out and the HRRR and NAM are coming in range.
The ensembles are the only thing worth looking at now. It's the 4-5 day range where the GFS/Euro may start giving some answers.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:42 am to TDsngumbo
It's because the cold source and extent of the cold air intrusion aren't going to be subtle. Models are pretty good at catching the big anomalies.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:42 am to Duke
As long as the HWRF isn’t showing the inch of freezing rain, I’m good! 
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:17 am to Prominentwon
Chance of snow finally showing in my forecast. Waiting for the weather.gov forecast to get into range.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 5:45 am to GEAUXmedic
Weather Channel app is finally coming around for the Northshore this morning. We have Junior's birthday party at our house next Saturday. I've been telling Mrs4 that we are getting snow and ice for two days. Last night, she said I was crazy.
I told her I don't follow the weather forecasts, as I get my weather from the OT.
It's now showing a low of 20 for Friday with 68% precipitation, then a low of 22 Saturday.
I told her I don't follow the weather forecasts, as I get my weather from the OT.
It's now showing a low of 20 for Friday with 68% precipitation, then a low of 22 Saturday.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 5:49 am to 4LSU2
I don’t think I’ve EVER seen a TWC forecast of 36/20 for BR. At least not more than 24 hours out...
Posted on 2/5/21 at 5:50 am to DVinBR
Gone now? I don't get these runs, a few hour difference had it from 9 inches to nothing?
Posted on 2/5/21 at 5:55 am to OSoBad
quote:
Gone now? I don't get these runs, a few hour difference had it from 9 inches to nothing?
That happens when the event is still a week or more out. Plus, if this thing ends up being more of an ice storm than a snow event, that particular map isn’t going to reflect ice accumulation from freezing rain.
This post was edited on 2/5/21 at 5:56 am
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:03 am to OSoBad
quote:
Gone now? I don't get these runs, a few hour difference had it from 9 inches to nothing?
Now we know how your wife feels.
You can tell the truth, it was never 9 inches to begin with.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:10 am to OSoBad
quote:
Gone now? I don't get these runs, a few hour difference had it from 9 inches to nothing?
Covered in every winter precip thread ever on the OT. You’re going to see these models do this. Pay more attention to the trends, not the maps
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:18 am to Prominentwon
This is from the National Weather Service in Birmingham’s morning forecast discussion. Obviously this is focused on central Alabama, but it gives a good idea of the setup we may be dealing with in the southeast.
quote:
Wednesday night through Friday:
Difficult, potentially high impact forecast in the long range as a shallow Arctic air mass undercuts moist southwest flow aloft, as weak waves in the southwest flow aloft cause weak waves of low
pressure to develop along a quasi-stationary Arctic front. Run to run consistency in the deterministic models is poor with a lot of spread in the ensembles. But if sufficient moisture is present the
air mass will certainly be cold enough for wintry precipitation. Forecast soundings mainly indicate a strong warm nose which would suggest any wintry precipitation would primarily be in the form of
freezing rain and sleet. Some potential for wintry precip may begin as early as Wednesday night in the far northwest, but at this time the main chances for impacts looks to be Thursday night and Friday (and possibly beyond). Since this is at the very end of
the 7-day HWO period, will hold of mentioning anything in the HWO for this run.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:27 am to Duke
quote:
A little early prep isn't a bad idea. The cold air supply looks like the real deal
I'm slowly getting on board for this one. Cold looks likely later next week, but how cold we don't know yet. Some of the models are spitting out some pretty serious ice storms from the Gulf Coast all the way to the TN Valley, so most of us on this forum need to be watching this. I might go top off my propane tanks and pick up some firewood, just in case. It wouldn't hurt.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:37 am to TDsngumbo
High in Little Rock Friday showing 24. WTF
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:07 am to Prominentwon
Looks like 1-3” of snow now
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