Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us New thread started for Beryl | Page 15 | O-T Lounge
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re: New thread started for Beryl

Posted on 6/17/24 at 8:39 am to
Posted by Crimsonians
Member since Nov 2019
2009 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 8:39 am to
Give him your what?
Posted by lsusteve1
Member since Dec 2004
47052 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 8:45 am to
quote:

will gladly give you my 6" so you can rest easier.


Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51279 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 8:46 am to
quote:

But they are still saying the sea temperatures are out of this world hot.

Sea surface temperatures are currently above average across much of the Atlantic Basin. That said, sea surface temps are just one part of the story.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51279 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 11:53 am to
Here is some 200+ hour fun from the 12z GFS. Two tropical systems in the Gulf. Not likely to happen.

This post was edited on 6/17/24 at 11:54 am
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
7795 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 11:56 am to
That might be the something big my guy was telling me about
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93252 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 11:57 am to
quote:

Give him your what?


My 6".

I'm in the Austin area and we're supposed to get 6" of rain from this.

What did you think I meant?

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
72897 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 12:03 pm to
Day 1-3 QPF


Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook


Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21197 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 12:13 pm to
quote:


Here is some 200+ hour fun from the 12z GFS. Two tropical systems in the Gulf. Not likely to happen.


Conditions look to be favorable for a bit. The 00z Euro EPS also had some support for another system out beyond Day 7.

It looks like 91L might do enough to get a name before moving inland. However, if it doesn't, then you can probably start chipping away at some of those high storm total seasonal predictions. If you look back at the hyperactive seasons, they almost always had multiple named storms in June.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21197 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 12:22 pm to
quote:


Day 1-3 QPF


Far West Texas and the Big Bend area are really hurting. Hopefully, this follows model guidance and brings the rain where it is needed.

Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32704 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 1:04 pm to
Posted by jcaz
Laffy
Member since Aug 2014
19010 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 1:12 pm to


The OT vs You
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
11991 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

Here is some 200+ hour fun from the 12z GFS. Two tropical systems in the Gulf. Not likely to happen.


Remember anything longer than 5 days out is pretty much a best guess and should be looked upon as for educational or entertainment purposes only.

But yes, 200 hours out is definitely “fun.”
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93252 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

Remember anything longer than 5 days out is pretty much a best guess and should be looked upon as for educational or entertainment purposes only.


Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43263 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 2:01 pm to
While not strong 12Z Euro is like surprise motherfrickers for Louisiana. This is day 9 and 10 so will change.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43263 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 3:19 pm to
Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Jun 2024 20:17 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51279 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 3:22 pm to
PTC One coming at 4:00 PM CT.

That will allow NHC to start issuing advisories and allow tropical storm watches/warnings to be issued.
This post was edited on 6/17/24 at 3:24 pm
Posted by Bigfishchoupique
Member since Jul 2017
9517 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

While not strong 12Z Euro is like surprise motherfrickers for Louisiana



Some of the “ not strong” storms cause a lot problems.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117255 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

My 6".



Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51279 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 3:53 pm to
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Posted by KemoSabe65
70605
Member since Mar 2018
6633 posts
Posted on 6/17/24 at 3:56 pm to
This is going to ruin my Juneteenth celebration.
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