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Message
re: Tropical Storm Cindy
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:06 pm to LSU5508
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:06 pm to LSU5508
quote:
From a NOLA perspective do I want this thing to move east or west to miss the flooding rains?
in a perfect world for Louisiana, it'd hang an immediate right and land somewhere on the FL panhandle.
it's most likely not going to do that so the further east it makes landfall the better.
1
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:07 pm to poops_at_parties
So, the wife is going to Destin this weekend with her Mother. Should she cancel that?
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:07 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
How far west do we want the "center" to go to ensure the bad eastern rain bands still stay to the west of us?
That doesn't really appear to be an option at this point. All the models agree on deep tropical moisture streaming northward. The only question is where do the biggest totals happen. The large scale setup has more to do with this vs. the track of the "center"
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:07 pm to poops_at_parties
quote:
Rainfall or your girlfriend?
Out of town, don't know Jody's dimensions.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:07 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
euro ensembles pretty far east of the operational run
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:08 pm to 3deadtrolls
quote:
So judging by this map, Lafayette is expecting to get about 2 inches?
I wouldn't rely too heavily on that.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:08 pm to rds dc
Just give me the bottom line. What's this bucket of shite predicted to do?
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:08 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
From this view it looks like it's starting to get a little better organized, at least compared to this morning for sure.
Windyty
ETA: I'm seeing at least 36kt surface wind ENE of the eye and 58kt wind at 3,000 ft. That would make this a named storm.
Windyty
ETA: I'm seeing at least 36kt surface wind ENE of the eye and 58kt wind at 3,000 ft. That would make this a named storm.
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:08 pm to 3deadtrolls
quote:
don't know Jody's dimensions.
I won't hurt her.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:09 pm to poops_at_parties
They made a loop.. some kind of wind shift
>
>This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:13 pm to Walking the Earth
quote:
Just give me the bottom line. What's this bucket of shite predicted to do?
Lots of rain somewhere between the Corpus Christi and Tampa Bay. People are going to be mad that they got more than predicted or less than predicted, even though the forecast stresses how difficult the localized rainfall totals are to predict.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:13 pm to GEAUXmedic
This seems to be where they're focused
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:15 pm to Loungefly85
That windy site is pretty nifty. I think it hypnotized me for a sec
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:16 pm to slackster
quote:
People are going to be mad that they got more than predicted or less than predicted, even though the forecast stresses how difficult the localized rainfall totals are to predict.
Yep. The OT "experts" will be here pounding their chest after this passes. Most likely to bitch about having a thread about this when certain areas don't get much rain.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:17 pm to notiger1997
Anyone in SE Louisiana who has lived here most of their lives should know by now stuff like this isn't easy to predict and they shouldn't take what any weatherman says as fact. Best thing to do is take action and play it safe that way you're not caught in the worst case scenario with your pants down.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:18 pm to notiger1997
quote:
The OT "experts" will be here pounding their chest after this passes. Most likely to bitch about having a thread about this when certain areas don't get much rain.
People are going to be upset they didn't flood. It's insane.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:20 pm to deuce985
Well, if we actually prepare for worst case scenario regardless...how will we blame someone else for us not being prepared?
The expression, "rather have it and not need it than need it and not have it", is really lost on some people. There is nothing you can buy for something like this that can ever be a waste.
The expression, "rather have it and not need it than need it and not have it", is really lost on some people. There is nothing you can buy for something like this that can ever be a waste.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:21 pm to slackster
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located a couple hundred miles east-southeast
of the southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A broad area of low pressure extends from north of the Yucatan
Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico.
This system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity well east and northeast of the low over much
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this system does not have a
well-defined surface circulation, satellite wind data indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds are occuring in a band 100 to 150 miles
northeast of the broad low. Upper-level winds are expected to be
marginally conducive for some additional development of this system
during the next day or two while it moves northward to northwestward
into the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form during that time. Regardless of
development, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central
Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could
be needed for portions of this area later today.
Also, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and spread into central and
eastern portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast during the next day or two.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon. For more information on this
system, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located a couple hundred miles east-southeast
of the southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A broad area of low pressure extends from north of the Yucatan
Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico.
This system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity well east and northeast of the low over much
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this system does not have a
well-defined surface circulation, satellite wind data indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds are occuring in a band 100 to 150 miles
northeast of the broad low. Upper-level winds are expected to be
marginally conducive for some additional development of this system
during the next day or two while it moves northward to northwestward
into the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form during that time. Regardless of
development, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central
Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could
be needed for portions of this area later today.
Also, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and spread into central and
eastern portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast during the next day or two.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon. For more information on this
system, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:23 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
satellite wind data indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds are occuring in a band 100 to 150 miles
northeast of the broad low
I'm guessing it will be upgraded to a named storm soon?
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 3:24 pm
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