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Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:26 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
John Bel told the storm that we are locked down and it will have to go elsewhere.
We’re not out of the woods unless the state AND the system both wear a mask.
Damn... Beat me to it!
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:36 am to Duke
quote:
Small cores need everything to go right and last night did not. Dry air is especially effective at countering the warm water effects.
Countering that, they also need a smaller area of conditions conducive for growth. It is why Gonzalo was ever able to strengthen at all. If it had been a bigger system to start, it would be dead now. A bigger system would have had more inflow that would suck a whole lot more of that SAL dry air in. It was why the GFS was showing such a strong storm impacting the island's and the Euro showed it dying. Both were having trouble resolving the impact of the Saharan dry air.
This post was edited on 7/23/20 at 10:37 am
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:42 am to LegendInMyMind
this thread got da sticky 
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:43 am to rt3
quote:
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020
...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 90.7W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may
be required for portions of the Watch area later today.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
quote:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020
...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...
...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 48.3W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for some of these islands later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:56 am to rt3
quote:
so if this were late March/April... and thus super cells/tornados... is this essentially the same as a "cap" in the atmosphere?
ETA: probably not... a "cap" is a temperature difference while the phenomenon I originally posted about is a moisture difference... I think
Your edit is correct. A cap is warmer air above colder air. Cant rise above it without something to push it. Won't let the convection start.
Severe season systems feed off of horizontal temperature differences, have cold fronts and warm fronts. Tropics don't really have much of a temperature difference at the surface, and hurricanes then just feed on the heat released when condensing all that water vapor and dry air steals it.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 11:09 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
It was why the GFS was showing such a strong storm impacting the island's and the Euro showed it dying. Both were having trouble resolving the impact of the Saharan dry air
Small scale is also difficult for the globals to resolve with their resolution. But yeah, the small size is a blessing and a curse for a tropical system.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 12:08 pm to dukke v
PEEEEEJJJJJJJ, hey man whats your prediction? How much concern for Gulf coast states?
Posted on 7/23/20 at 12:48 pm to Mudminnow
For what??????
Posted on 7/23/20 at 12:48 pm to Mudminnow
Posted on 7/23/20 at 12:53 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
100 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION IS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 90.3W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Posted on 7/23/20 at 1:03 pm to GEAUXmedic
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located about 850 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Eight, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.
1. A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is expected to move
westward across the tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
Some development of this system is possible when it reaches the
western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located about 850 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Eight, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.
1. A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is expected to move
westward across the tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
Some development of this system is possible when it reaches the
western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 1:08 pm to lsuman25
Oh boy. It's only July.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 1:21 pm to lsuman25
PANIC TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Posted on 7/23/20 at 1:51 pm to fatboydave
quote:
Gulf looks angry today
Yep, double red flags, not allowed in. Sucks for vacationers.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 3:14 pm to Rhino5
Drinking primarily done on the sand 
Posted on 7/23/20 at 3:22 pm to CharlesLSU
Levi:
quote:
#TD8 continues to look healthier on satellite imagery. The lunchtime recon mission showed hints of a contracting vortex at the end, but we will need to wait until the next mission at ~6:00pm CDT to see if the circulation is truly tightening, which would be a strong indicator.
This post was edited on 7/23/20 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 7/23/20 at 3:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Levi:quote:
#TD8 continues to look healthier on satellite imagery. The lunchtime recon mission showed hints of a contracting vortex at the end, but we will need to wait until the next mission at ~6:00pm CDT to see if the circulation is truly tightening, which would be a strong indicator.
as with life itself... truly tightening = bad news
Posted on 7/23/20 at 3:34 pm to fatboydave
Where is that pic from?
Posted on 7/23/20 at 3:46 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Oh boy. It's only July.
Lots of named systems thus far, but accumulated cyclone energy for 2020 season is only slightly higher than normal through 7/23. 60 mph is still the strongest wind any storm has had yet, IIRC.
Global ACE for 2020 is actually only half as high as normal, mainly due to a very quiet Pacific season across the board.
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