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re: Tropical Storm Isaias - O Canada!
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:19 am to CitizenK
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:19 am to CitizenK
quote:
Note that the 11AM EDT discussion shows that actual intensity at surface is 25kts per drop sonde.
Yeah, right near the center where winds are calmer. The discussion noted the sonde showed a pressure of 995 mb but because there was a 25 kt wind it wasn't the actual center and the pressure is really a couple of mb lower.
I doubt there's actually hurricane force winds anywhere at the surface but the NHC likes continuity and 65 kt is reasonable enough with the recon data they have.
2
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:27 am to Duke
But there were never any higher winds today at Matthewtown, not even before this.
Read the actual discussion
Read the actual discussion
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:31 am to CitizenK
I really should know better at this point but...
That's because that's not where the highest winds are.
quote:
But there were never any higher winds today at Matthewtown, not even before this.
That's because that's not where the highest winds are.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:33 am to Duke
I hope this storm stays relatively weak. The Bahamas, especially Great Abaco Island are probably still not fully recovered - and may never be - from Dorian less than 11 months ago.
Not wishing any harm on Florida, but the best track for everyone - other than the unlikely completely out to sea - would be just offshore the east coast of Florida and just off the Outer Banks.
Not wishing any harm on Florida, but the best track for everyone - other than the unlikely completely out to sea - would be just offshore the east coast of Florida and just off the Outer Banks.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:35 am to Duke
Closest to any
BTW, Albert Town is now getting the worst of it at74 MPH, gusts to 99.
BTW, Albert Town is now getting the worst of it at74 MPH, gusts to 99.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 12:00 pm to CitizenK
You really should mostly read along for a few more hurricanes before you consider posting as knowledgeable.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 12:36 pm to NorthEndZone
This post was edited on 7/31/20 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 7/31/20 at 1:07 pm to rds dc
Pretty significant difference between the 12z models on the thumb ridge over the top and the incoming trough. The Euro sends system into Florida. Strength of system might not matter as much if ridge over the top is stronger.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 1:21 pm to rds dc
GFS and Euro have come into agreement on a landfall in Florida or VERY close to it. They basically agree 48 hours out which they both usually get right to within about 50 to 75 miles either way.
In this case 75 miles will make a huge difference one way or the other for Florida.
GFS
Euro
In this case 75 miles will make a huge difference one way or the other for Florida.
GFS
Euro
Posted on 7/31/20 at 1:25 pm to NorthEndZone
Thats a weak TS on both models above 1000 mb
Posted on 7/31/20 at 1:37 pm to Cosmo
I think the model runs were initialized with too high of a pressure of 1006 mb instead of the 995 mb that it was this morning. It is now at 991 mb so I think the 1001 is higher than what it should be.
Regardless, none of the models are bombing him out, but like the old saying goes, prepare for at least one category higher than the forecast.
If I was in Florida in the watch or warning area, I would prepare as if it will be a Cat 2.
ETA: I'm not saying the NHC was wrong. It is just a lag in time from when the models are initialized until recon gets an accurate pressure reading.
Regardless, none of the models are bombing him out, but like the old saying goes, prepare for at least one category higher than the forecast.
If I was in Florida in the watch or warning area, I would prepare as if it will be a Cat 2.
ETA: I'm not saying the NHC was wrong. It is just a lag in time from when the models are initialized until recon gets an accurate pressure reading.
This post was edited on 7/31/20 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 7/31/20 at 1:49 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
In this case 75 miles will make a huge difference one way or the other for Florida.
And will have downstream implications. A lot of talk has focused on strength and organization of system, and that still plays a role, but differences in ridge strength and trough placement could make a difference between just offshore or totally onshore.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 1:53 pm to rds dc
quote:
Pretty significant difference between the 12z models on the thumb ridge over the top and the incoming trough. The Euro sends system into Florida. Strength of system might not matter as much if ridge over the top is stronger.
The GFS has been trending a slightly more amplified trough and with it stronger ridging downstream. The Euro does the same thing. Sure it breaks down eventually but hard to see how Isaias gets around it and doesn't hit Florida the way the models are depicting things.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 2:20 pm to Duke
quote:
The GFS has been trending a slightly more amplified trough and with it stronger ridging downstream. The Euro does the same thing. Sure it breaks down eventually but hard to see how Isaias gets around it and doesn't hit Florida the way the models are depicting things.
We'll find out soon enough but the last few years storms have always found a way to stay just offshore of East Florida. Will it happen again?
Posted on 7/31/20 at 2:55 pm to rds dc
quote:
We'll find out soon enough but the last few years storms have always found a way to stay just offshore of East Florida. Will it happen again?
You are correct we have dodged two big storms in the last few years right of the east coast of florida. I'm hoping our good fortune continues.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 3:01 pm to rds dc
Gotta love when track is in part a function of strength and you're working with a small circulation over warm water with a decent amount of shear coming at it. And you know, the large scale steering has it threading the needle around a ridge breaking down.
You know, easy.
You know, easy.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 3:12 pm to Duke
Thats why we pay you the big bucks baw
Posted on 7/31/20 at 3:27 pm to Duke
Unrelated but TD 10 off Africa at 4 now
Special Message from NHC Issued 31 Jul 2020 20:18 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located about 200 miles west of the coast of Africa
Special Message from NHC Issued 31 Jul 2020 20:18 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located about 200 miles west of the coast of Africa
This post was edited on 7/31/20 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 7/31/20 at 3:39 pm to FLObserver
Potential wind speeds from NWS Miami and NWS Melbourne...Red is 74 to 110 mph, Orange is 58 to 73 mph, Yellow is 39 to 57 mph...Of course subject to change...
Posted on 7/31/20 at 4:00 pm to NorthEndZone
Isaias looks pretty good on radar:
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