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re: WWII buffs: let's talk about Germany's biggest strategic blunder
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:51 am to ChewyDante
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:51 am to ChewyDante
quote:
This won't be a popular thing to say in here but it's completely true. Not to mention a tremendous amount of anti-German rhetoric and propaganda coming out if FDR's administration. If you were a German at the time, it sure appeared to be an inevitability that the US was soon to directly join the war, just as they did in WWI.
As I said before, we were violating the shite out of the Neutrality act. Escorting convoys all the way to Iceland, then letting the Brits take over. Of, course, it was good training for our navy, except for the German subs taking a few shots at out destroyers.
1
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:52 am to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
Spain did what was best for them because they lacked enough to even be relevant.
And to be honest I believe the Germans were glad of this because one the one hand they realized there was little to nothing of value the Spaniards could offer and on the other hand having them involved in the war would have really meant they had that much more territory to have to worry about defending from the Allies (although I highly doubt the Allies would have opened the "second front" by invading Spain instead of France).
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:52 am to SoFla Tideroller
This audio of discussion between Hitler and Mannerheim gives you a glimpse into Hitler's reasoning behind launching Barbarossa when he did.
It wasn't just a whimsical decision.
LINK
It wasn't just a whimsical decision.
LINK
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:53 am to TigerPanzer
quote:
As I wrote before, no rational strategist could devise such a plan, one that would have even a 50% chance of success. Hence, Germany's greatest strategic blunder of WW II … was starting the damn thing–a war that could only end in Germany's destruction.
Yes indeed. Such a plan was beyond the capability of any of the military staffs of the world at that time, including Germany.
And, yes, it could very well be that, once war began on 1 Sep 1939 with all things as they actually were, Germany had no chance to win.
Perhaps if Germany had built up her war industries to a much greater extent BEFORE September 1939, Germany might have had a chance to win WW2.
But, I don't know whether Germany could have further beefed up it's war industries during the 1930s. I don't know to what extent that was possible for them.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:55 am to FightinTigersDammit
quote:
As I said before, we were violating the shite out of the Neutrality act. Escorting convoys all the way to Iceland, then letting the Brits take over. Of, course, it was good training for our navy, except for the German subs taking a few shots at out destroyers.
Yep. There had been a de facto naval war going on between the US & Germany in the north Atlantic for almost 2 years when Hitler finally made it official on December 11, 1941.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:59 am to ChewyDante
quote:
This audio of discussion between Hitler and Mannerheim gives you a glimpse into Hitler's reasoning behind launching Barbarossa when he did.
It wasn't just a whimsical decision.
you bring up a great point. The German attack on the Soviet Union was not a lightning bolt out of the blue. Everyone who knew anything about the political situation in Europe knew that sooner or later there would be a war between the USSR & Germany. Both sides were building up their forces as fast as they could and the Germans knew that every day they waited, it was a day the Soviets grew stronger and within a few years they would be strong enough to overrun all of Europe.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:04 pm to Darth_Vader
Right. And German diplomats reported that the Soviets were asserting themselves more and more in Eastern Europe in diplomatic discussions, in such a fashion that the Germans viewed as exceedingly ambitious and threatening to their security. Hitler specifically mentions Romania and the Ploesti oil fields. A preemptive Soviet strike in force would have been unrecoverable for Germany.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:06 pm to ChewyDante
Makes sense. I guess there wouldn't have been any nuetrality between the two had Germany not attacked.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:22 pm to ChewyDante
quote:
Right. And German diplomats reported that the Soviets were asserting themselves more and more in Eastern Europe in diplomatic discussions, in such a fashion that the Germans viewed as exceedingly ambitious and threatening to their security. Hitler specifically mentions Romania and the Ploesti oil fields. A preemptive Soviet strike in force would have been unrecoverable for Germany.
The Germans knew the Soviets were gearing up for war. And by that I mean the Germans knew that the Soviets had every intention of moving against the west. Where the German's were wrong though was on the timetable. They though in the Spring of 41 that the Soviets were on the cusp of making their move at any moment. The truth though is the Soviets themselves knew it would be at least 1943 before they'd be ready (thanks in large part to Stalin's purges of the Red Army's officer corps). What was really going on in 1940-41 from the Soviets on the diplomatic front was a massive gamble to make Germany think the Soviets were stronger than they were in the hopes it would convince the Germans to not attack. Instead it convinced the Germans to attack as soon as possible before the Soviets got any stronger.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:23 pm to Darth_Vader
I did not know that. Thank you, sir! 
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:26 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
I did not know that. Thank you, sir!
If you want to learn some fascinating history, find anything you can regarding the diplomatic maneuvering between the Germans and Soviets from the time Hitler came to power until the opening of Operation Barbarossa. They went from close (albeit secret) allies with joint military cooperation at the highest levels to open warfare in just a few years.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:28 pm to Spaceman Spiff
WWII was fundamentally representative of power politics. Of course there were ideological motivations as well but the initial outbreak of war between the French, British, and Germans reflected balance of power theory and concerns over relative power differentials on the continent. This is typically overlooked in popular culture analyses of the war and its causes.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:39 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
The Germans knew the Soviets were gearing up for war. And by that I mean the Germans knew that the Soviets had every intention of moving against the west. Where the German's were wrong though was on the timetable. They though in the Spring of 41 that the Soviets were on the cusp of making their move at any moment. The truth though is the Soviets themselves knew it would be at least 1943 before they'd be ready (thanks in large part to Stalin's purges of the Red Army's officer corps). What was really going on in 1940-41 from the Soviets on the diplomatic front was a massive gamble to make Germany think the Soviets were stronger than they were in the hopes it would convince the Germans to not attack. Instead it convinced the Germans to attack as soon as possible before the Soviets got any stronger.
Lack of information and miscalculation is most always the most difficult and dangerous aspect of foreign policy decision making. The Germans also massively underestimated the degree to which the Soviets had industrialized and armed and this was a result of the complete lack of information coming out of the Soviet Union. They knew they were arming but underestimated the extent they had already achieved. Stalin's brutality against his own people was instrumental in the rapid progress.
Interestingly enough, I read an academic article that suggested this same dynamic contributing to the US miscalculation of Iraqi weapons programs leading to the 2nd Iraq War. It postulated that Saddam deliberately wanted to give the international impression that he possessed WMD or the capacity to quickly manufacture WMD for the explicit reason of displaying strength against regional threats like Iran and it backfired in leading the US to also draw this conclusion.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:52 pm to ChewyDante
quote:
Interestingly enough, I read an academic article that suggested this same dynamic contributing to the US miscalculation of Iraqi weapons programs leading to the 2nd Iraq War. It postulated that Saddam deliberately wanted to give the international impression that he possessed WMD or the capacity to quickly manufacture WMD for the explicit reason of displaying strength against regional threats like Iran and it backfired in leading the US to also draw this conclusion.
Funny how history keeps repeating itself.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:52 pm to Jim Rockford
Uh.. thinking they were just going to walk into Russia and take everything, especially in the cold months
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:55 pm to The Cool No 9
quote:
Uh.. thinking they were just going to walk into Russia and take everything, especially in the cold months
Well to be fair their initial plan was for the fighting to be over and done before the onset of winter.
Course their complete failure to prepare proper winter stocks for their forces in Russia in case the fighting did reach winter, which of course it did, can also be listed as a massive German failure as well.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:58 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
The war was lost when:
a) Hitler held back at Dunkirk; and,
b) Hitler switched his targets from the RAF fields to the civilian population centers in the Battle of Britain.
FIFY
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:04 pm to The Cool No 9
quote:
Uh.. thinking they were just going to walk into Russia and take everything, especially in the cold months
It's no where close to that simple, read through the thread. That's just the watered down impression people draw from superficial analysis. The invasion occurred in June and was slated to begin sooner.
I also cringe when people say Hitler was stupid because he didn't recognize the disadvantage Germany would face fighting on two fronts, when he expressed a desire to avoid a two front war over and over. I blame television programming and Hollywood for presenting watered down history in the name of entertainment purposes for the preponderance of these opinions.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:10 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Well to be fair their initial plan was for the fighting to be over and done before the onset of winter.
Mandatory CGSOC reminder:
When making strategic, operational or tactical plans - never forget that the enemy gets a vote.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:12 pm to Ace Midnight
Another reminder:
When the shooting starts, nothing goes according to plan...
When the shooting starts, nothing goes according to plan...
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