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Message
re: Bill Mitchell discusses early voting results
Posted on 10/31/18 at 7:56 pm to PEPE
Posted on 10/31/18 at 7:56 pm to PEPE
quote:
There's absolutely no other way to interpret the early voting metrics as anything but extremely positive for Republicans.
The only way Democrats win any of the competitive races is if:
A. The Early Vote stat analysis is just completely f'ed up and wrong.
or
B. Independents are voting overwhelmingly Democrats (which historically never happens, Independents tend to break Republican slightly to majorly)
So yeah, I'm not celebrating until about a week from now, until then I'll be cautiously optimistic.
Man oh man I hope you are correct.
1
Posted on 10/31/18 at 8:22 pm to FightnBobLafollette
quote:
FightnBobLafollette
sky screamer
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:10 pm to buckeye_vol
Dude you’re just making my point and you know it
Silver had Hillary at 86% chance of winning one week out just as he had democrats taking House yesterday
Give it up
Silver had Hillary at 86% chance of winning one week out just as he had democrats taking House yesterday
Give it up
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:12 pm to scrooster
quote:
by scrooster
quote:
There's absolutely no other way to interpret the early voting metrics as anything but extremely positive for Republicans.
The only way Democrats win any of the competitive races is if:
A. The Early Vote stat analysis is just completely f'ed up and wrong.
or
B. Independents are voting overwhelmingly Democrats (which historically never happens, Independents tend to break Republican slightly to majorly)
So yeah, I'm not celebrating until about a week from now, until then I'll be cautiously optimistic.
Man oh man I hope you are correct.
He absolutely is correct!
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:18 pm to saints5021
quote:
Bill is the man
Ok.
Don’t think you’ll find a post where I questioned him.
However, he is a trump supporter so dismissive of evidence that if he didn’t exist liberals would have to invent him.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:19 pm to Tony Tiger89
quote:
Fighting Bob, are you French ?? LOL
Could you please write all your dumb questions in one post. I prefer to answer them all in one fell swoop.
Thanks.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:21 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
o why would you make up a lie, when it’s verifiable due to this thing called the internet?
Asking a guy named little trump.
Perhaps he is imitating his idol.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:23 pm to TigerMyth36
quote:
Happy folks forget why they are happy and skip voting.
My only hope is that the incessant clown show from the Democratic Party prevents this...…..
Keep it up Dems, we need you.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:27 pm to Tiger985
quote:
he was not wrong in 2016
He was wrong.
He had Hillary in the high 80s for most of October. Let that sink in. That he dropped to 70% right before the election really doesn't change the fact that his forecast was absolutely off the charts wrong for any reasonable amount of time before the election...and still very wrong at the last minute.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:29 pm to moneyg
Wow. Things never change.
Do you even gamble?
Do you even gamble?
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:32 pm to FightnBobLafollette
At least answer the one you replied to
Posted on 10/31/18 at 10:45 pm to BamaFan365
I did.
Does the line ever move when you bet on games?
Does the line ever move when you bet on games?
Posted on 11/1/18 at 10:42 am to FightnBobLafollette
quote:
Wow. Things never change.
Do you even gamble?
What good is a running forecast if it's not representative of the end result?
What good is a forecast 3 weeks out if it's not representative of the end result.
And, if the tides changed from Hillary in the 80s, to Trump winning, he certainly didn't recognize that MONUMENTAL shift to the degree he needed to.
The truth is that things didn't change to that degree. Silver and the other forecasters didn't see it coming. The primary cause of that is because their data was poor. The polling data is often skewed towards democrats with the intent of building a narrative. I predict that Silver will be accurate when dems win, and inaccurate when they lose.
Posted on 11/1/18 at 6:49 pm to Tiger985
quote:
Message
Bill Mitchell discusses early voting results by Tiger985
quote:
Get your facts straight
On election day Silver had Clinton 71.4, Trump 28.6.
Nowhere near your 86%. Get your facts straight. 2 days prior he had Clinton at 67.
7-10 days before Election Day ‘16 Silver had Hillary at 86% win! Stop avoiding that
Geez
Posted on 11/1/18 at 6:57 pm to Little Trump
Just let him believe in silver. He'll be one of the girls on the sky screaming asking "How did this happen???"
Posted on 11/1/18 at 7:14 pm to Little Trump
quote:This is wrong. 10 days before the election was the day of the Comey announcement. It 82% that morning, and after the announcement, the polls quickly tightened, and her chances decreased significantly.
7-10 days before Election Day ‘16 Silver had Hillary at 86% win! Stop avoiding that
Geez
And besides you have gone from 86% a week before the election, which was way off, and now you’ve extended to 10 days and are still wrong.
Here is a 538 article discussing it, and whether you agree with the thesis that it cost her (along with her running terrible campaign) or like me think that it’s her fault it happened anyways, it’s undeniable that the polling data changed immediately and dramatically.
The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election
quote:
according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast that morning, her chances of losing the Electoral College were a fair bit higher: 18 percent.
quote:
Clinton’s standing in the polls fell sharply. She’d led Trump by 5.9 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s popular vote projection at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 28. A week later — after polls had time to fully reflect the letter — her lead had declined to 2.9 percentage points.
But regardless the criticism of Silver is ridiculous since he was using the polling data that was available and had no control over the data itself, and he attempted, far better than anyone else, to control for the potential error as best as possible, although limited it what anyone could do.
So maybe the polling data is just too poor to model accurately; however, based on the the data, any model could only lead to the conclusion that she had a good chance of winning, and the quality is the model should he judges by how extreme those chances were. His was the best by a lot.
This post was edited on 11/1/18 at 7:25 pm
Posted on 11/1/18 at 8:15 pm to buckeye_vol
I truly feel like Trump voters are motivated to vote in the midterms. Usually, people vote for the president and stop paying attention after a year, bUT Trump has stayed front and center by hammering away at his agenda and fighting back. People who voted for him do not want the resistance to succeed.
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