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Message
re: Census Data Released-Alabama Keeps Seats
Posted on 4/26/21 at 3:48 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
Posted on 4/26/21 at 3:48 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
quote:
Looks like a +6 swing to the GOP. Right now this would be enough to flip the house. I think the GOP flips the house in 2022 especially with Joe destroying the country.
That is not at all how it works. Each of those blue states that lost a seat will be doing so by eliminating a red district when the new districts are drawn.
2
Posted on 4/26/21 at 3:54 pm to uf5514
Holy shite at the deer irony of all the soy patrol screeching about cheating in the comments. 
Posted on 4/26/21 at 4:37 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
That is not at all how it works. Each of those blue states that lost a seat will be doing so by eliminating a red district when the new districts are drawn.
I think they're talking about electoral votes. If you apply these numbers to the electoral college in the last election, Republicans would have netted 6 more votes.
Posted on 4/26/21 at 5:01 pm to ATCTx
quote:
If you apply these numbers to the electoral college in the last election, Republicans would have netted 6 more votes.
In that case, it’s a meaningless observation, particularly considering that his comment specifically referenced the House. Some of those states will flip next POTUS election.
This post was edited on 4/26/21 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 4/26/21 at 5:04 pm to Indefatigable
So what is the count for House purposes taking into account state legislature makeups.
Posted on 4/26/21 at 5:52 pm to uf5514
Some redistricting required. Look for the leftist organizations to be going full bore to be certain that red districts are sub-divided and maybe a few new districts created by redlining in a few secure democrat voting housing projects etc. They are experts at being sneaky and unscrupulous.
Posted on 4/26/21 at 5:55 pm to kj993
Isn’t this the first census in history where Cali lost seats?
Shitty economics finally caught up with them.
Shitty economics finally caught up with them.
Posted on 4/26/21 at 5:57 pm to Indefatigable
Depends on where the population losses are coming from and who from their own party is pissing off all the right people.
For example, AOC’s district could be divided amongst several or their incumbents which would make it an uphill battle for her to retain it. Main reason it could happen is that the state Dems in NY hate her arse.
For example, AOC’s district could be divided amongst several or their incumbents which would make it an uphill battle for her to retain it. Main reason it could happen is that the state Dems in NY hate her arse.
Posted on 4/26/21 at 6:04 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
quote:
GOP flips the house in 2022
Not likely. Currently 54% of Americans approve of Biden's performance in office, and Democratic congressmen have higher approval ratings from their constituents than their Republican counterparts, according to latest polls.
Something will have to change for the GOP to recapture Congress.
This post was edited on 4/26/21 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 4/26/21 at 6:05 pm to uf5514
quote:
-1: California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York
California will remove a Republican seat
Illinois will remove a Republican seat
Michigan is interesting since they are a Republican legislature with an equal distribution of R and D Reps
Ohio will try to remove a D seat
West Virginia will lose an R seat
Pennsylvania will remove a D seat to spite Wolfe
New York will remove an R seat
quote:
+1: Oregon, Montana, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida
+2: Texas
D+2, R+5
Total changes:
R-4, D-3, R+5, D+2
Net gain, R+1
Net loss, D-1
Posted on 4/26/21 at 6:14 pm to uf5514
The problem is the people leaving the blue states keep voting the same way. See Georgia, Arizona, Colorado soon to be NC and TX
Posted on 4/26/21 at 6:15 pm to tarzana
quote:
Not likely. Currently 54% of Americans approve of Biden's performance in office, and Democratic congressmen have higher approval ratings from their constituents than their Republican counterparts, according to latest polls.
Something will have to change for the GOP to recapture Congress.
You would have made this same post in 2009 and you would have been correct at the time.
Then they passed Obamacare.
This Dem Congress will frick themselves by doing something stupid like trying to remove the filibuster, packing the Supreme Court, etc
Posted on 4/26/21 at 6:55 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Just wanted to add that though Oregon is +1, all the shuffling will likely skew either the 4th district (Kurt Schrader) or 5th district (Peter Defazio should he retire) to the right giving a second republican seat in Oregon
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