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Message
re: Helmut Norpoth predicts Trump win!!
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:23 pm to Covingtontiger77
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:23 pm to Covingtontiger77
Frickin Helmut, heck yeah, that’s my people!
0
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:26 pm to Covingtontiger77
Any model that has him winning in a place like New York, where he’ll lose by 25-30 points, should be disregarded altogether.
quote:Given how different each election is, how much has changed over this time period, and how many close elections and surprises there have been, a model that is that accurate is clearly overfitted, and a good predictive model will often be less accurate on historical data than a poor model.
Primary Model gets the electoral-vote winner right in 25 of the 27 elections from 1912 to 2016.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:28 pm to gthog61
quote:It takes no recent event into consideration. He actually started using it in 1996 and has only run it through 2 actual difficult elections 2000 and 2016. He was 50% with those getting it wrong in 2000.
Why don't you tell us why that is?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:28 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Better check yo self
Lol, or what? You've been spewing negativity all week, own it.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:30 pm to Saint Alfonzo
What was so exceedingly negative about his post?
To reach 362, Trump would have to, of course, hold all of the states he won in 2016, and flip:
Nevada - 6
Virginia - 13
New Hampshire - 4
Minnesota - 10
Colorado - 9
New Mexico - 5
Maine (remaining districts)- 3
Oregon - 7
That would equal 363. Do you seriously think that will happen?
To reach 362, Trump would have to, of course, hold all of the states he won in 2016, and flip:
Nevada - 6
Virginia - 13
New Hampshire - 4
Minnesota - 10
Colorado - 9
New Mexico - 5
Maine (remaining districts)- 3
Oregon - 7
That would equal 363. Do you seriously think that will happen?
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 7:35 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:31 pm to Switchback
quote:It’s worse than that; he has Trump winning New York.
That would equal 362. Do you seriously think that will happen?
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 7:32 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:36 pm to buckeye_vol
It's hard to discredit the model's accuracy of 24 out of the last 26 elections since 1912, but I'm not buying Norpoth's prediction of Trump's landslide victory. Maybe I'm incorrect. He knows a hell of a lot more than I do.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:38 pm to Saint Alfonzo
Concern for fraud that I repeatedly use as the reason for Trump losing isn't negativity, dickbag. It's happening right in front of your face.
Oh, and your contributions to his board are awesome man. Such great content:
"Was she hot? You get her number? Pics?..."
Oh, and your contributions to his board are awesome man. Such great content:
"Was she hot? You get her number? Pics?..."
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:39 pm to buckeye_vol
Those folks in NY like them some Marxist rulers and really shitty ones.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:46 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Concern for fraud that I repeatedly use as the reason for Trump losing isn't negativity, dickbag. It's happening right in front of your face. Oh, and your contributions to his board are awesome man. Such great content: "Was she hot? You get her number? Pics?..."
Well, asking if the girl was hot is extremely relevant unless you have the gay. Going by your user name, that theory checks out. Anyway, keep crying about unsubstantiated and/or imaginary fraud, Debbie Downer. Trump's gonna win, so relax.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:47 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
I'm sorry but even if Trump wins, just no.
If trump gets 30% of the black vote then probably
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:48 pm to Saint Alfonzo
quote:
Anyway, keep crying about unsubstantiated and/or imaginary fraud,
So you're trolling? There has been story after story about this. So you're either willfully ignorant or just ignoring it.
quote:
Trump's gonna win, so relax.
I really hope so, this country in their hands will be something to see. Full-on progressivism.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:48 pm to Walkthedawg
quote:
Those folks in NY like them some Marxist rulers and really shitty ones.
It’s amazing isn’t it
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:52 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
So you're trolling? There has been story after story about this. So you're either willfully ignorant or just ignoring it.
Not trolling, just a little irritated by the whining you've done all week. Buck up little Johnnie Pornstache, it'll be ok.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:54 pm to buckeye_vol
CNN (anchor in tears at 8:10 Eastern time): “Well, it seems this race is over before it started. Donald Trump has just carried the state of New York ... we’ll take a break now.” (hot mic off camera) “Fuuuuck”
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:56 pm to Saint Alfonzo
quote:
Not trolling, just a little irritated by the whining you've done all week.
The fraud is real though, how can this not concern you after the last 4 years? You obviously know what they are capable of.
quote:
Buck up little Johnnie Pornstache, it'll be ok.
It's the greatest stache of all time.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:02 pm to Switchback
quote:It’s basically a model that captures an incumbents advantage, which is why they perform so well since the primaries are usually less competitive. By my quick count, 13 of those elections the incumbent won.
It's hard to discredit the model's accuracy of 24 out of the last 26 elections since 1912, but I'm not buying Norpoth's prediction of Trump's landslide victory. Maybe I'm incorrect. He knows a hell of a lot more than I do.
In addition, at least 3 of the elections an incumbent did not win, had an unusually competitive primary: 1912 which ended with Teddy running 3rd party, 1976 when Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford (who was an incumbent under poor circumstances), and Jimmy Carter in 1980.
In addition, at least 3 of the incumbents who did not win were in the middle (or at least soon after) of a recession/depression: Hoover in 1932; Carter in 1980; and Bush in 1992. In fact, a number of times the challenging party (whether challenging an incumbent or challenging the party that just served 2 terms), the nation was in a recession.
So basically the model could just give the incumbent an advantage, adjust for unusually close incumbent primaries, and account foe the party in power during an economic recession and predict the election without really doing much work.
But that’s the thing, 2020 should fall under the recession adjustment, but it’s not included.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:02 pm to Covingtontiger77
This is my map and I'm wondering where the extra 9 votes come from.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:03 pm to Langland
quote:He has Trump winning New York.
This is my map and I'm wondering where the extra 9 votes come from.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:06 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
The fraud is real though, how can this not concern you after the last 4 years? You obviously know what they are capable of.
It does but I think in reality, Trump is way, way out in front of Sleepy Joe, despite what the gaslighting media would have us believe. I don't think they can beat him even if they do cheat.
quote:
It's the greatest stache of all time.
Agreed, and Hall and Oates are tremendously underrated.
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