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re: If TX had the votes to secede, and went through with it...then what?
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:36 pm to WildManGoose
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:36 pm to WildManGoose
quote:I know. I said all that a few posts ago.
Texas has a top 10 world economy by GDP. Being "cut out" is probably already factored in to the decision to secede.
But that's a top 10 in terms of GDP ranking, not effective GDP. In other words, let's say Texas is sitting on oil like Croesus sat on gold. The world is eagerly awaiting that sweet Texas tea.
So it all gets loaded up on tanker trucks, but when they reach the "new" US borders at LA, AR, OK and NM, they are shocked to learn that the US has imposed embargoes on all Texas exports traveling by road.
No sweat, boys. Turn those trucks toward Galveston and let's get that juice on tanker ships. Well, the feds are gonna shite on that, too. You'll have to be sure not to encroach in US waters, and any ships registered in or associated with US firms are going to be challenged about their involvement in the transport of that crude.
So that top 10 GDP is when using US infrastructure. Without that, it won't be a top 10. You're gonna have to make up the $270 billion in federal money. You're gonna have to do something about the remote Texas areas cut off from the federal grid.
Costs, costs, costs...
Again, I'm not against it. I'm just pointing out the very obvious paths they'd take to make things as financially difficult as possible. The US isn't going to let Texas walk. We all know that. But this is one they can win without firing a shot, and that'd be the smart way to play it.
1
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:37 pm to bluedragon
quote:Not so. I am well aware that much of Texas is on its own grid. But very remote areas are not, and you can believe they'd be cut out. That's all I'm saying. All federal ties would be cut.
That says you don't know a thing about the Texas Electric grid .....Read before contributing to climate change ....
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:40 pm to Abraham H Parnassis
But why would the US do that?
Countries, including the US, trade with one another every hour of every day and have done so for all of recorded human history. The free trade agreements that the United States already has in place for 20 other countries around the world treat trade with them as though they were one of the States of the Union. Yet no one would argue that any of those countries are inseparable members of the federal Union. Texas could execute a free trade agreement with the United States and adopt the United States tariff schedule with the World Trade Organization for external trade, and no one would even notice the difference.
Countries, including the US, trade with one another every hour of every day and have done so for all of recorded human history. The free trade agreements that the United States already has in place for 20 other countries around the world treat trade with them as though they were one of the States of the Union. Yet no one would argue that any of those countries are inseparable members of the federal Union. Texas could execute a free trade agreement with the United States and adopt the United States tariff schedule with the World Trade Organization for external trade, and no one would even notice the difference.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:41 pm to EKG
quote:You might be right. But that's not been in any of my arguments.
Historically, do you think every other international entity that has exited its former region/country was in better shape to exercise sovereignty and self-governance than Texas currently is?
I can’t think of a situation in which any would-be republic was in better shape to make such a break.
Do you think the US is going to let Texas take its 1.9 trillion dollar ball and go inside? Not fricking likely.
Do you think they wouldn't make things as financially uncomfortable for Texas as possible? Not fricking likely.
Then when people lose every red cent they paid into MC and SSI and Texas has to contend with being unable to move their exports into the US (or, if able, at massive costs by way of heavy tariffs) and figure out how to address the border situation with Mexico and not being enumerated in NAFTA and all the rest of it, this is a game the US can win without military aggression.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:47 pm to Abraham H Parnassis
We disagree.
The US and many Americans loathe Texas.
We hear it daily.
I’d think most of the country would be thrilled with TEXIT.
The US and many Americans loathe Texas.
We hear it daily.
I’d think most of the country would be thrilled with TEXIT.
This post was edited on 4/22/21 at 5:51 pm
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:48 pm to DaTruth7
quote:Texas currently has NO state income tax. If they could manage to get the deep south states(La., Miss., Ala., Ark, and possibly Sou. Car. to go in with them, things could get interesting. Don't expect Ga. or Tenn. to have the seeds to make the jump.
They would cut all federal aid immediately. The big tell is if Texas votes for a state tax increase. That's when it may happen. They will need more state taxes to pay for the lack of federal aid. Texans would pay less taxes overall though hopefully.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:49 pm to BamaScoop
quote:
People throughout the US would volunteer to join Texas in the fight in the government attacked them.
This fricking right here. This is the tipping point where true patriots would join them.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:50 pm to lsufball19
quote:clearly you havent been paying attention. Its the Republicans that dont have the balls. Reps actually let the Dems and government commit a coup and didnt do shite about it.
The democrats don't have the balls to start a violent conflict,
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:51 pm to burger bearcat
They would get their arse kicked
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:52 pm to EKG
We're gonna have to agree to disagree re: SSI and MC. I don't think you'd see one greasy penny from the US if you seceded. And if I'm being honest, and this was about Oregon in 2018, I'd probably be in favor of not giving them anything, either. It'd be hypocritical of me to think differently about Texas (though it does pain me to do so). You guys are awesome, and in no way on the same level with Oregon. But, if you willingly secede I think you abandon that federal tether. Besides, we both know they'd just tie that shite up in court for years. That'd be the smart play on their part.
For the MC piece, you probably do overpay. But all that would be gone (like SSI), and it'd be on Texas to rebuild that piece. Not impossible, but another challenge as regards autonomy.
And the US (especially with a big blue D in 2 branches of federal government and who knows what the USSC will look like in a year) isn't going to agree to shite with the state that left. No fricking way. They've got nothing to gain. They'll seal off travel into and out of the state/republic and restrict air travel over US airspace leaving you with Mexico and the GoM to play with.
I would argue that since Texas isn't enumerated in NAFTA, there's no reason to honor any trade agreements or enter into new ones. You wanted out? You're out.
frick man, I wish we were talking about another state.
I really like Texas. It pains me to express my reads on this against a red haven, but this is what I would see taking place if it were to actually happen. I think it's folly to believe that the US would let this happen without either armed conflict or severe trade restrictions.
On what planet do you really see the US letting an economy like Texas go, grow and flourish, setting an example for other states to do the same? I'm talking about this "leadership" we have in the US right now.
They'd never allow it.
For the MC piece, you probably do overpay. But all that would be gone (like SSI), and it'd be on Texas to rebuild that piece. Not impossible, but another challenge as regards autonomy.
And the US (especially with a big blue D in 2 branches of federal government and who knows what the USSC will look like in a year) isn't going to agree to shite with the state that left. No fricking way. They've got nothing to gain. They'll seal off travel into and out of the state/republic and restrict air travel over US airspace leaving you with Mexico and the GoM to play with.
I would argue that since Texas isn't enumerated in NAFTA, there's no reason to honor any trade agreements or enter into new ones. You wanted out? You're out.
frick man, I wish we were talking about another state.
I really like Texas. It pains me to express my reads on this against a red haven, but this is what I would see taking place if it were to actually happen. I think it's folly to believe that the US would let this happen without either armed conflict or severe trade restrictions. On what planet do you really see the US letting an economy like Texas go, grow and flourish, setting an example for other states to do the same? I'm talking about this "leadership" we have in the US right now.
They'd never allow it.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 5:55 pm to Abraham H Parnassis
quote:This is why they need the deep south states to buy in. With the additional states in the mix, with much sacrifice from the residents of these states, I believe that there is hope for a favorable conclusion. Don't forget the the rest of the country would be totally hamstrung by such a move, too!
You might be right. But that's not been in any of my arguments.
Do you think the US is going to let Texas take its 1.9 trillion dollar ball and go inside? Not fricking likely.
Do you think they wouldn't make things as financially uncomfortable for Texas as possible? Not fricking likely.
Then when people lose every red cent they paid into MC and SSI and Texas has to contend with being unable to move their exports into the US (or, if able, at massive costs by way of heavy tariffs) and figure out how to address the border situation with Mexico and not being enumerated in NAFTA and all the rest of it, this is a game the US can win without military aggression.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:00 pm to EKG
quote:Because you'd be sowing seeds for other states to do the same.
But why would the US do that?
Countries, including the US, trade with one another every hour of every day and have done so for all of recorded human history. The free trade agreements that the United States already has in place for 20 other countries around the world treat trade with them as though they were one of the States of the Union. Yet no one would argue that any of those countries are inseparable members of the federal Union. Texas could execute a free trade agreement with the United States and adopt the United States tariff schedule with the World Trade Organization for external trade, and no one would even notice the difference.
The US would make it as difficult as possible on Texas to flourish on their own to dissuade LA from getting folded in, then MS, AL, FL...
You say "Texas could execute a free trade agreement with the United States and adopt the United States tariff schedule", but that nets nothing for the US.
Again, if it were Oregon and I were the benevolent dictator of the US (because it hurts my soul to use Texas in these examples) - here's what I'd do.
1. No more road travel in or out. You wanted to be on your own? You figure it out.
2. No more air travel over US airspace. You wanted to be on your own? You figure it out.
3. There are ships willing to take on your exports, float them to CA or WA for dissemination and sale in the US. Tough tits. Tariff the frick out of it. Inflate the price. No one will buy it. You can take it all back. That's if I don't embargo their shite altogether. You wanted to be on your own? You figure it out.
4. No more federal grid (regardless of size). You can spend your own money to rebuild the infrastructure to bring those removed onto your state grid. You wanted to be on your own? You figure it out.
5. No more federal aid. You wanted to be on your own? You figure it out.
6. No more SSI or MC. I understand you paid into it, but you chose to leave. I'll make sure it's tied up in court for years while we continue to spend off of it. Maybe there'll be a fraction of something left when we finally decide to let you have it. You wanted to be on your own? You figure it out.
I don't know you, but I support your cause. I love the idea. But the reason the US is going to make it exceedingly difficult on Texas is because it cannot afford an example to be set. That's the absolute bottom line.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:00 pm to Abraham H Parnassis
quote:
On what planet do you really see the US letting an economy like Texas go
There is no “letting.”
If we peacefully go to the polls and a majority of us want out, the US can’t do much.
To be honest, we’ve reached the point where most Texans don’t care what the US wants anyway.
Time will tell.
Enjoyed the discussion, mate.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:01 pm to EKG
quote:I love you fellas. I'll work behind enemy lines to subvert those fricks at every turn.
We disagree.
The US and many Americans loathe Texas.
We hear it daily.
I’d think most of the country would be thrilled with TEXIT.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:04 pm to coachcrisp
quote:I think one state seceding would face economic hardships from the US.
This is why they need the deep south states to buy in. With the additional states in the mix, with much sacrifice from the residents of these states, I believe that there is hope for a favorable conclusion. Don't forget the the rest of the country would be totally hamstrung by such a move, too!
A block of states seceding is going to draw more of an aggressive response, simply because the threat is bigger.
I've said all along that they'd pinch of exports from Texas to make them feel the squeeze. But with the entire Gulf Coast involved, there's an actual economy there.
Plus, you think the US is going to let ports like Mobile and NOLA and whatever is in FL just walk? They're entire access to the GoM just walk? Nah bruh.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:06 pm to EKG
quote:Except bottom out your economy, which it would be more than willing to do. If only to set an example to other states.
There is no “letting.”
If we peacefully go to the polls and a majority of us want out, the US can’t do much.
To be honest, we’ve reached the point where most Texans don’t care what the US wants anyway.
Time will tell.
Enjoyed the discussion, mate.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:06 pm to ChexMix
quote:
clearly you havent been paying attention. Its the Republicans that dont have the balls. Reps actually let the Dems and government commit a coup and didnt do shite about it.
Having the balls to commit fraud is worlds different than the balls to start a violent conflict in your own country.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:08 pm to BeepNode
quote:
They won’t need to get violent tho. Their IRS and corporate America will keep you all in line.
What’s the IRS going to do to states that secede? In this scenario, states that secede won’t be following federal laws of the United States. That’s the whole point
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:29 pm to burger bearcat
It may depend on how many of their bordering states went with them.
Posted on 4/22/21 at 6:37 pm to lsufball19
What people in here arent mentioning is losing Texas would make the entire Republican party untenable. It would blow up our entire current political system. States would either be forced to join us or live under communist rule.
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