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re: Nate Silver still says 62% chance that Trump wins
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:13 pm to OMLandshark
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:13 pm to OMLandshark
I'm thinking that Silver's model won't start reflecting the effects of the debate until the post-debate polling starts coming in, which I'm guessing will be next week sometime.
2
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:15 pm to Bamatab
Right about the time that most everyone has put it in the rear view mirror and don’t give a single frick about it any longer.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:44 pm to OMLandshark
Frank’s issue is that he is a political pundit.
He isn’t an everyday man living life day by day. He over analyzes issues & thinks every fabricated Trump “issue” will make him lose.
In reality, the mean voter isn’t paying attention
He isn’t an everyday man living life day by day. He over analyzes issues & thinks every fabricated Trump “issue” will make him lose.
In reality, the mean voter isn’t paying attention
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:47 pm to OMLandshark
Nate Silver is a Peter Thiel guy. No surprise there.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:48 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
has a below average IQ.
this is not even in question. She is really, really dumb. That's what makes it worse, is that she believes that she is intelligent, and presidential. I wouldn't want her running one of my Mcdonalds if I had a chain of them, and I'm not kidding.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:15 am to OMLandshark
Well what do ya know
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:23 am to OMLandshark
I’m hopeful that from many accounts it appears people have figured out there is nothing the Democratic Party does or stands for that is primarily with the interest of American citizens or America put first.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:28 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Although Frank Luntz says he thinks Kamala’s favored to win at this point.
And citing zero data to support his assertion
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:28 am to texridder
quote:
Nate Silver is a Peter Thiel guy. No surprise there.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:30 am to OMLandshark
He will 100% be showing Harris as the favorite to win in the next few weeks as he is infected with TDS. The 62% chance is primarily from pre-debate polls, he will cherry pick post debate polls to give Harris fake momentum.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:35 am to OMLandshark
quote:
I’m on a plane on the way back from Seattle and I saw five Trump bumper stickers and one Kamala bumper sticker, and that’s the first Kamala bumper sticker I’ve ever seen.
Holy shite…how good is your vision?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:39 am to OMLandshark
Have to wait a week to 10 days so he can incorporate post debate polls to see what the impact will be.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:57 am to OMLandshark
if I was Nate and felt that strong I'd get on a betting site.
He can get Trump +110.
btw I'm voting Trump but Vegas ain't buying these polls.
He can get Trump +110.
btw I'm voting Trump but Vegas ain't buying these polls.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:09 am to joseywales1
You betting on Harris?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 7:05 pm to Bamatab
quote:Correct. The post-debate polls aren't out yet.
I'm thinking that Silver's model won't start reflecting the effects of the debate until the post-debate polling starts coming in, which I'm guessing will be next week sometime.
He sent out an email saying he thinks it'll likely shift to basically 50/50.
The level of denial about the debate on the PT is absurd.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 7:06 pm to Big Scrub TX
Better bet on Harris while the odds are so good, baw. You got that free money calling your name.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 7:09 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
The level of denial about the debate on the PT is absurd.
Do you think anyone that was voting for Trump on Monday is now going to vote for Kamala come today? I highly doubt it.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 7:12 pm to jbdawgs03
no, I've got some morals. lol
Posted on 9/12/24 at 7:16 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Although Frank Luntz says he thinks Kamala’s favored to win at this point.
Frank Luntz became really TDS for a while. Which is why I thought his jump back to Trump this cycle was funny. But those flaky people are the ones who always jump off the Trump train first and easiest at the first sign of adversity. Which is why what he says should hold zero weight.
This post was edited on 9/12/24 at 7:21 pm
Posted on 9/12/24 at 7:18 pm to The Boat
The comedy of all of this is all the pollsters know she is trailing in GA, NC and PA. The debate changed none of that but Trump's focus on PA during it tells you they see that state as the final piece of a guaranteed 270.
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