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Started By
Message
re: Not understanding the Vegas odds
Posted on 10/24/20 at 8:40 am to Robin Masters
Posted on 10/24/20 at 8:40 am to Robin Masters
quote:
My understanding is that Vegas doesn’t care to pick the winner or loser rather they want to adjust the odd to get even amounts of money on both sides. In this way they won’t get hammered in the case of an “upset” and they can make the 10% commission on all the bets placed.
Bookies operate like this, Casinos not exactly. They use a little different approach. But yes, it still drives the point home about why the odds look so nuts.
0
Posted on 10/24/20 at 8:43 am to davyjones
quote:
But aren't odds based on who or what is more likely to win a given contest?
That's the initial odds
The movement is based on whose side is getting more bets
Seems heavy amounts are on JB
Posted on 10/24/20 at 8:45 am to Lou Pai
Vegas never loses. If it did, it'd look like Larado.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 8:48 am to FATBOY TIGER
I imagine a lot of these bets could be from foreigners looking at the polls and media reports. They think it will be easy money.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 8:59 am to SDVTiger
quote:
But aren't odds based on who or what is more likely to win a given contest?
quote:
That's the initial odds
The movement is based on whose side is getting more bets
Seems heavy amounts are on JB
10-4, thanks.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 9:03 am to Barstools
quote:
The odds aren't their prediction on who will win. The odds are set as such to have an even number of bets on each side.
This isn't true. They seldom ever have 50/50 on each side.
The number is set based on how the public thinks.
Bet Trump. +155 is free money. The casino is giving away free money knowing they will get it back the following day to women's cricket.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 9:07 am to Lou Pai
It is one thing to vote one's Party presence but these two idiots - Biden & Harris - don't merit their nomination much less offices.
Voted this week and selected in four races, 8 local matters and opted out the remainder, close to 25 positions
Voted this week and selected in four races, 8 local matters and opted out the remainder, close to 25 positions
Posted on 10/24/20 at 9:19 am to saintsfan1977
quote:
Bet Trump. +155 is free money. The casino is giving away free money knowing they will get it back the following day to women's cricket.
This. Since offshores are the only places offering this , I wonder what the limits are on this bet. I suspect that they are low limits, like a regular prop bet. Can anyone with offshore accounts tell us what the limits are on this bet?
Posted on 10/24/20 at 9:28 am to saintsfan1977
quote:
This isn't true. They seldom ever have 50/50 on each side.
Nonsense, their goal is still to have even money on each bet. So yes, its seldom perfectly even but their goal is still the same. If they have 90% of bets on one side they potentially lose much more than one that is 51/49.
quote:
The number is set based on how the public thinks.
Somewhat true but this isn't a real bet and someone placing a bet on One Candidate isn't an endorsement on who they will vote for but rather who the bettor thinks will win.
Also. This isn't a real bet so it technically isn't being driven by what the people actually think.
This post was edited on 10/24/20 at 9:29 am
Posted on 10/24/20 at 9:29 am to Vandyrone
quote:
Can anyone with offshore accounts tell us what the limits are on this bet?
Bookmaker is Trump +180
Max wager is $40,000.00
Posted on 10/24/20 at 9:34 am to Barstools
quote:
Nonsense, their goal is still to have even money on each bet.
This is what casinos want people to believe. In a perfect world, yes. It's too bad we don't live in one. Casinos set odds based on public perception. On some games they take a stand knowing they're on the right side.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 9:42 am to saintsfan1977
quote:
Bookmaker is Trump +180
Max wager is $40,000.00
Thanks. That max is much higher than I thought it would be.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 9:58 am to Lou Pai
Can someone tell me the best and/or most reliable online site to place bets on from Louisiana please??
I’ve used BetOnline for sports and they don’t have election wagers.
I’ve used BetOnline for sports and they don’t have election wagers.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 10:05 am to Lou Pai
quote:According to "accepted polling" this election is a fait accompli. Most of the bettors are placing their money accordingly.
Not understanding the Vegas odds
Posted on 10/24/20 at 10:06 am to Lou Pai
PredictIt is a better gauge then Vegas
Posted on 10/24/20 at 10:26 am to Sweep Da Leg
quote:
Can someone tell me the best and/or most reliable online site to place bets
Bookmaker
Posted on 10/24/20 at 10:50 am to saintsfan1977
quote:
Casinos set odds based on public perception.
They set the lines in a manner to hedge their losses. Yes, thats based on public perception (only to the extent the money on each side moves the lines) but make no mistake - they're trying to get as close to even money on each side as possible so they pay out as little as possible.
quote:
This is what casinos want people to believe
No, that's how it actually works.
This post was edited on 10/24/20 at 11:16 am
Posted on 10/24/20 at 10:52 am to Lou Pai
Vegas odds are not based upon how the populace will vote. They are based upon how many idiots on each side like to ganble.
This post was edited on 10/24/20 at 10:53 am
Posted on 10/25/20 at 7:40 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
According to "accepted polling" this election is a fait accompli.
If it were actually a fait accompli. The word would travel far and wide in minutes.
The odds would look like the 2019 KC Chiefs vs a middle school team.
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