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re: Oil price chart: Dec 18 to today..
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:56 pm to LSUTigers9458
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:56 pm to LSUTigers9458
quote:
Spot on with this assessment, whoever moved their prediction to 07/2021 for 75/bbl is correct. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have already called 75 bbl in the 3rd quarter.
That was me. I initially called it before the election if Biden had won by the Summer of 2022.
I didn’t expect it to go this fast, but speculators know the direction of this Administration since he was elected.
1
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:15 pm to COAUTiger
quote:
Slidell, I think I get what you are saying. Some regulations change the industry in ways that are not obvious right away but has a butterfly effect. Is that what you are saying? Or am I missing your point? Do you think a president has a direct effect immediately on the price of oil? Do you agree that OPEC+ sets the price of oil with their quotas? I know speculators have a huge affect, but I don't think most folks understand how they work.
Since oil is traded daily, there is an element of speculation in the price.
The president can have an effect directly in the speculative price of oil and also with regulatory impacts by choking supply.
They’re connected though.
If elizabeth Warren or Bernie had won the nomination for the Democrat ticket, and led in the polls, the speculative element of the price of oil would have been impacted. They hadn’t done squat yet but speculators would be buying or selling based on the likely hood that an anti fossil fuel president would win.
Then if they won, and enacted the policies that they wanted, the price would be impacted fundamentally based on reduced supply.
OPEC is a coop of several countries that meet and decide how much they’re going to produce. Those announcements impact the traded price of oil because they’re either increasing, decreasing or leaving output it steady. They’re a smaller piece of the global supply though.
Consider that the US now produces more than Saudi Arabia! Amazing.
We are a big player in both supply and demand.
Again, it’s a traded commodity so there are various components to the price. Speculation certainly is a part. Sometimes it’s big part- sometimes not so big. How much of an impact speculation plays is beyond me though
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:37 pm to COAUTiger
quote:
The price of oil is set by international supply and demand. It does not care who is President of the United States. Prior to March 2021, oil reach a couple of lows with Obama and rose during Trump's presidency. Not giving credit to Obama nor blaming Trump. Just saying it doesn't care who is President.
It most certainly can reflect who is president. If you have a nutcase that makes it a priority to shut down and over regulate the O&G industry in your own country... you cut supply. Prices rise. Very simple.
Also... when you start appeasing extremest dictators in Iran and bomb other countries in the Middle East... you destabilize the area. Prices go up. Very simple.
And having a low oil price in a shite economy is much easier than having one in a booming one. So the Obama vs Trump comparison does not compute.... especially when one despised energy production and one embraced it.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:41 pm to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 3/5/21 at 3:29 pm to LSUAlum2001
Headed to $90 - a smooth doubling.
Good thing I never go anywhere, ever, any longer.
Good thing I never go anywhere, ever, any longer.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 3:31 pm to COAUTiger
quote:
There is a misconception that we were oil independent.
The term was energy independent. We still have massive areas we could explore, but we are choosing not to for both political and economic reasons.
What we absolutely DO better than practically anyone is refine sweet crude into gasoline (and other outputs). Thus were were doing that to keep the refineries at peak efficiency.
There was a glut there for almost a year, though.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 3/5/21 at 3:43 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
That was me. I initially called it before the election if Biden had won by the Summer of 2022.
I didn’t expect it to go this fast, but speculators know the direction of this Administration since he was elected.
Dude, this is because the 3.5mm bbls that went offline with covid, returning economic activity and, most importantly, OPEC+ maintaining their cuts. This has nothing to do with pawpaw.
If you're in O&G...WTI at $66...well...
Posted on 3/5/21 at 4:08 pm to SlidellCajun
I will accept that I overstated my stance. That's on me. What I should have said is it's not accurate to place a large portion of blame/reward a President for the price of oil/gas. There are so many factors that go into the price, the President is not a significant portion like what is being suggested.
When I wrote "I don't think most folks understand how they work", I meant myself as well. I know they can drive up the price but I don't always understand their reasoning. Right now, it seems like the majority of the rise is due to speculators even though we still have a glut on the market. It seems to be of a reaction to OPEC+ quotas and increasing demand rather than Biden's policies. But they are traders and have different reasonings than the average public.
CleverUserName -
Nutcase: Yes, that is true. But has Biden's policies really had a large impact thus far (legit question)? US oil production is down but from what I understand, that is due to the health/banking of the US oil companies and current oversupply. Where I get most of my info typically are non-political sources. Now if you read the comments to some of the articles, that's a different story.
Middle East: I consider that more of a supply disruption than political. That's a very unstable area even when we are not appeasing.
Obama v Trump: I wouldn't say it was a crapper economy during Obama. It started out that way but consistently improved (not saying due to Obama, just saying it did improve though). As far as the comparison doesn't compute, well, that was really my point. I didn't give credit/blame either way.
When I wrote "I don't think most folks understand how they work", I meant myself as well. I know they can drive up the price but I don't always understand their reasoning. Right now, it seems like the majority of the rise is due to speculators even though we still have a glut on the market. It seems to be of a reaction to OPEC+ quotas and increasing demand rather than Biden's policies. But they are traders and have different reasonings than the average public.
CleverUserName -
Nutcase: Yes, that is true. But has Biden's policies really had a large impact thus far (legit question)? US oil production is down but from what I understand, that is due to the health/banking of the US oil companies and current oversupply. Where I get most of my info typically are non-political sources. Now if you read the comments to some of the articles, that's a different story.
Middle East: I consider that more of a supply disruption than political. That's a very unstable area even when we are not appeasing.
Obama v Trump: I wouldn't say it was a crapper economy during Obama. It started out that way but consistently improved (not saying due to Obama, just saying it did improve though). As far as the comparison doesn't compute, well, that was really my point. I didn't give credit/blame either way.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 7/1/21 at 8:47 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
shite.. We may hit that this Summer and stay over that number for the next 4 years
Biden: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! LET'S GET TO $100!
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 8:51 am
Posted on 7/1/21 at 8:58 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Biden: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! LET'S GET TO $100!
The goal is gasoline prices as high as possible in order to push people into electric vehicles sooner.
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