- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: True or False: Trump is the only candidate who can outright win Tuesday night
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:13 am to TigerDoc
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:13 am to TigerDoc
quote:
He's saying that given the size of the 2020 polling lead, a 2016-size polling error would still render a Biden victory. Another way of saying it is that 2020 would have to have a bigger polling error than in '16 for a Trump win.
Correct.
Thanks, should have made that more clear in my OP.
0
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:13 am to SlowFlowPro
This is my final map for the election:
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:13 am to SlowFlowPro
The behavior of the campaigns do not match the majority of the polling services.
Something fricky is going to go down in PA w/ found votes.
Something fricky is going to go down in PA w/ found votes.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:17 am to TigerDoc
which ones are we talking about? the ones from last week, or the ones recently showing dead heats and trump leads?
maybe yall are talking about the real clear "averages".
maybe yall are talking about the real clear "averages".
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:17 am to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
Biden has an average of +2.9 in battleground state averages right now according to RCP
The polls in 2016 missed by +2.8.
a. this is silly and you have to go through state by state
b. they clearly tried to make absolutely too absurd of results for months, so if they're wrong, it's going to be much worse this time
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:17 am to NawlinsTiger9
quote:Look at it by state. Trump way over performed the polls in the key swing states
The polls in 2016 missed by +2.8.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:19 am to Rebel
quote:
The behavior of the campaigns do not match the majority of the polling services.
The behavior of campaigns and the coordinated media do not come close to matching "Democratic blowout"
I mean look at 2016. they legit THOUGHT the polling data was good in 2016 and were celebrating long before election day
HRC didn't even have a concession speech
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:22 am to SlowFlowPro
True.
Trump will win tomorrow.
Trump will win tomorrow.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:22 am to SlowFlowPro
DIfferent website (538)
I know, I know - "Nate Silver is a cuck and a fraud"
But he's just using his own failures to subtract from this year's data. Could this year's polls be off? Sure, but they'd have to be MORE off than they were is all I'm saying.
no doubt
I know, I know - "Nate Silver is a cuck and a fraud"
But he's just using his own failures to subtract from this year's data. Could this year's polls be off? Sure, but they'd have to be MORE off than they were is all I'm saying.
quote:
if they're wrong, it's going to be much worse this time
no doubt
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:27 am to SlowFlowPro
True
The only mail in states that have an absurd delay are California, Nevada and Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is a must win for Trump, but my God he’s got 60,000 people showing up at his rallies.
I think he’s declared winner late Tuesday/ early Wednesday and there’s litigation in Penn/Minnesota
The only mail in states that have an absurd delay are California, Nevada and Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is a must win for Trump, but my God he’s got 60,000 people showing up at his rallies.
I think he’s declared winner late Tuesday/ early Wednesday and there’s litigation in Penn/Minnesota
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:29 am to slackster
quote:
False, that’s just our bias.
Yep. Echo chambers aren't limited to just the political left; the right has them too. That's how Hillary voters got stunned and shocked off guard last time, and how many Trump voters may get shocked this time.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:30 am to SlowFlowPro
Sup baw
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:32 am to Steve Meve
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:33 am to AnyonebutSteelers
quote:
Yep. Echo chambers aren't limited to just the political left; the right has them too.
you think I'm a Trumpkin?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:34 am to SlowFlowPro
When you have Biden campaigning in Minnesota days before the election, then all bets are off.
That's the biggest tell I've seen.
That's the biggest tell I've seen.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:35 am to SlowFlowPro
Why do you keep name dropping Steve Meve like we know who the frick that is
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:37 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Weird election. Would not surprise me if things are close, someone calling it for Biden. Even if Trump outperformed 5-7 points and obviously had it bagged, I don't think a single network would call the election for Trump tomorrow.
Trump is the only candidate who can outright win Tuesday night
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:39 am to The Boat
i'm sorry you aren't cool enough to know what that means
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:40 am to Steve Meve
Long time Steve.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:44 am to SlowFlowPro
I agree. I think Trump is the candidate who could surprise on the upside.
Page 2 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News