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Message
re: Update: Situation in Iran thread
Posted on 2/24/26 at 8:25 am to Longhorn Actual
Posted on 2/24/26 at 8:25 am to Longhorn Actual
quote:
SOF is already on the ground for weeks.
Eh, maybe. But what would they even be doing up to now?
Training resistance fighters, gathering intelligence, doing other fancy special ops stuff that ideally we should never hear about, or doing the most important work of screening potential female Persian refugees so that the USA only imports OT8s who are unlikely to vote democrat.
That last part was sarcasm for those of you whose coffee has not kicked in yet this morning.
2
Posted on 2/24/26 at 8:29 am to BayouBengal51
More concerning from the link you just posted:
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 2/24/26 at 8:33 am to WeeWee
quote:
That last part was sarcasm for those of you whose coffee has not kicked in yet this morning.
Of course it was. They need to be OT 9s or better and vote Republican.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 8:38 am to meansonny
quote:
Guns aren't going to do much good without training. Arming the populace was successful in toppling the regime in Libya and eventually in Syria because enough of the militaries of those countries defected to create a trained fighting force to oppose the regimes.
Iran has mandatory military service.
The populace is trained.
That is why Iran has 2 armies. 1 to protect leadership from revolt and 1 regular conscription army.
Basic training in the US Army is 10 weeks and then basic combat training is 22 weeks. That means it takes 32 weeks to just to have a soldier who is ready for combat on paper. That does not include time it takes to train specialists and the other complex stuff that a professional army needs to know how to do before they enter combat. Iran's mandatory service is only 18 months to 2 years which is similar to Russia's mandatory military service or Iraq's under Saddam. Look at how Iraq's conscripts performed in the Desert Storm or more recently how Russia's conscripts performed during their invasion of Ukraine. The Iraq conscripts folded almost instantly, and the Russian conscripts did not even know that they were suppose to get out of the APCs and form a perimeter to protect their vehicles when they were stuck in traffic. Also when a country needs two different armies the army made up of conscripts is going to be have way less training than the army whose job it is to protect the regime.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 8:44 am to PsychTiger
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. This is what happens when you buy military helicopters from TEMU.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 8:47 am to PsychTiger
quote:
More concerning from the link you just posted:
I've got a feeling they won't be able to take delivery of those after this week. At least that is my hope.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 8:48 am to WeeWee
Israel has mandatory conscription.
The pros and cons of conscription are fairly obvious with all of the countries "data".
The citizenry is firearms trained.
That is the main benefit.
Conscription armies "can" have decent to good field training. But they lack a structural benefit of NCOs. They lack experienced, trained leadership which is invaluable on the field level during action. This is exactly the issue which you reference and it is real.
Bullets on targets. They can do that.
Anticipate. React. Regroup. They will be at a disadvantage to IRGC.
The pros and cons of conscription are fairly obvious with all of the countries "data".
The citizenry is firearms trained.
That is the main benefit.
Conscription armies "can" have decent to good field training. But they lack a structural benefit of NCOs. They lack experienced, trained leadership which is invaluable on the field level during action. This is exactly the issue which you reference and it is real.
Bullets on targets. They can do that.
Anticipate. React. Regroup. They will be at a disadvantage to IRGC.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:17 am to WeeWee
quote:
Iran's mandatory service is only 18 months to 2 years
A big factor in this is the will to fight.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:20 am to meansonny
That’s not what they were talking about.
This post was edited on 2/24/26 at 9:21 am
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:22 am to meansonny
quote:
Israel has mandatory conscription.
The pros and cons of conscription are fairly obvious with all of the countries "data".
The citizenry is firearms trained.
That is the main benefit.
Conscription armies "can" have decent to good field training. But they lack a structural benefit of NCOs. They lack experienced, trained leadership which is invaluable on the field level during action. This is exactly the issue which you reference and it is real.
Bullets on targets. They can do that.
Putting bullets on targets is secondary. If putting bullets on target was all that was required then Russia would have steam rolled Ukraine in the 2022.
quote:
Anticipate. React. Regroup. They will be at a disadvantage to IRGC.
Bingo. The IRGC is far superior to Iran's regular army the Artesh at that kind of stuff, and the Artesh is likely superior to a rebel army made up of people who did their mandatory military service and went back to being civilians. The preoters/rebels would get slaughtered and defeated by the IRGC quick, fast, and in a hurry. Maybe if the Artesh or a large part of it switched sides and joined the protesters/rebels so they could overwhelm the IRGC, or the protesters/rebels spent months training with the green berets they might have a chance. But just giving guns to former conscripts and wishing them luck is going to be a disaster.
Besides they have no communication equipment other than cell phones and a few thousand Starlink terminals. How would the rebels coordinate their attacks if the government cuts off the cell network? Which would be one of the first things the government did unless their communications gear is as shitty as the Russians who even after 4 years of war still have to rely on Telegram and cell towers.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:33 am to WeeWee
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:34 am to VolInBavaria
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:35 am to VolInBavaria
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Reza Pahlavi:
Students of mine, the brave daughters and sons of Iran,
You have turned the reopening of universities into the loud voice of the nation and demonstrated the steadfast bond between universities and the people. You have shown that Iran is alive and that the will of the people cannot be extinguished.
Nearly fifty years ago, my father predicted how future generations would judge him and his services. Today, you have answered history. His spirit is at peace, seeing that the children of Iran are awake, standing with courage and awareness to reclaim the country.
Stay united. Stand firm. Do not allow an ordinary image to be painted of our wounded homeland. As long as our people are being killed, our sisters and brothers are sentenced to death, and our mothers, fathers, spouses, and children are mourning; as long as this dark night has not ended and Iran is not freed from the grip of this oppressive regime, nothing is normal and our struggle continues.
Know that the future belongs to you, the ones who did not stay silent, who rose and stood firm. Together, we will reclaim Iran and rebuild it.
Long live Iran!
Victory to the Revolution of the Lion and Sun of the Iranian nation!
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:36 am to VolInBavaria
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Senator Ted Cruz on Iran:
“If the Ayatollah is removed from power, it will make America much safer.
This is the leading state sponsor of terrorism in the world.
The Iranian regime is responsible for murdering hundreds of American service men and women.
They fund terrorists all over the world.
What I’ve urged the president is, number one, support the protesters and arm the protesters.
Let the people of Iran give them the ability to overthrow their government.
And number two, I think there’s a very real possibility we will see potentially in a matter of days limited strikes… What we’re not going to see is boots on the ground.”
This post was edited on 2/24/26 at 9:36 am
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:37 am to BayouBengal51
The F-22's are not leaving with a Strike or bomb payload on the undercarriage and wings. If they were headed to conflict they would be loaded down to the max. That's SOP. Even if they were headed to a carrier or base to pre stage they would carry a minimal defense load. I see two exterior fuel tanks for distance under them on all the videos of them leaving RAF.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:39 am to VolInBavaria
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Yeah the anger has not decreased any since the protests were put down. In fact, I would argue that they were not put down they just took a break.
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:44 am to VolInBavaria
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
My dear student children, brave daughters and sons of Iran,
You turned the reopening of universities into the loud cry of the nation and displayed the strong bond between university and people. You showed that Iran is alive and the will of the nation cannot be extinguished.
My father, nearly fifty years ago, had predicted how future generations would judge him and his services. Today, you gave the answer of history. His soul is at peace, because he sees that the children of Iran are awake and, with courage and awareness, are standing to reclaim Iran.
Stay united. Stand firm. Do not allow a normal image to be created of our wounded homeland. As long as our people are being killed, our sisters and brothers are sentenced to execution, and our mothers and fathers, wives and children are in mourning; as long as this dark night does not end, and Iran is not freed from the grip of this occupying regime, nothing is normal and our struggle will continue.
Know that the future belongs to you; to you who did not remain silent, who rose up and stood firm. Together we will take Iran back and rebuild it once again.
Long live Iran!
Victory to the Lion-and-Sun Revolution of the Iranian nation!
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:49 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 2/24/26 at 9:51 am to VolInBavaria
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