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Who has the crystal ball on mortgage rates?
Posted on 1/16/26 at 8:00 pm
Posted on 1/16/26 at 8:00 pm
What’s the anticipation for the next 30-60 days? Under contract on a new build curious to see what rate we’ll get.
9
Posted on 1/16/26 at 8:26 pm to GeauxTime9
Who cares if the rates are 3 percent or 8. The best time to buy a house is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.
Posted on 1/16/26 at 9:00 pm to GeauxTime9
They are trending downward.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 6:18 am to Paul Allen
quote:
Who cares if the rates are 3 percent or 8. The best time to buy a house is 20 years ago.
Unfortunately I don’t have a Time Machine. Was looking for a little insight on how they were projecting for the near future.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 6:39 am to GeauxTime9
Next fed meeting is in two weeks. Betting odds say low chance of another cut.
We just had 3 consecutive interest rate cuts. Count your lucky stars and close the deal
We just had 3 consecutive interest rate cuts. Count your lucky stars and close the deal
Posted on 1/17/26 at 7:02 am to GeauxTime9
As of Thursday rates were at the lowest point in almost 3 years.
If you can afford it and are going to stay in home for a longtime go ahead and pull trigger you can always refinance if rates plunge further. I wouldn’t be in a rush as housing market is slowly correcting it’s not going to be a ‘crash’ but just a slow downward slide over many many months. It’s a buyers market most places now and only going to continue to move favorably towards buyer as time goes on.
If you can afford it and are going to stay in home for a longtime go ahead and pull trigger you can always refinance if rates plunge further. I wouldn’t be in a rush as housing market is slowly correcting it’s not going to be a ‘crash’ but just a slow downward slide over many many months. It’s a buyers market most places now and only going to continue to move favorably towards buyer as time goes on.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 7:45 am to GeauxTime9
I was just offered a 4.99% refi rate through VA IRRL program. Currently at 5.5. BIL purchasing a home end of month and has 5.8 locked in. Idk why such a huge gap
Posted on 1/17/26 at 9:00 am to bubba102105
quote:
I was just offered a 4.99% refi rate through VA IRRL program. Currently at 5.5. BIL purchasing a home end of month and has 5.8 locked in. Idk why such a huge gap
There are certain posters on this site (one above you) who will claim this is not possible
Yeah i know they are very dumb. Thats a solid offer
Rates will continue to go lower and Govy loans will be mid 4s
Posted on 1/17/26 at 9:18 am to GeauxTime9
6.00 seems like a tough nut to crack… no matter what the fed does… Fed sets the short term rate, not 10 year- which is what mortgage rates are based on. Obviously influences, but wouldn’t expect a direct correlation even if we got another .25 cut. Which isn’t even expected. Pause is. I would expect rates to hover around 6-6.5 for a bit. Which is a pretty good rate historically. But that’s just like my opinion man…
Posted on 1/17/26 at 9:20 am to bubba102105
quote:
I was just offered a 4.99% refi rate through VA IRRL program. Currently at 5.5. BIL purchasing a home end of month and has 5.8 locked in. Idk why such a huge gap
Points/fees/incentives… not exactly a booming market. People have to be aggressive.
Posted on 1/17/26 at 9:35 am to GeauxTime9
Whatever you’re getting quoted for now on your permanent mortgage, it’s probably going to be that or within .15% of that. Wouldn’t expect it to change much in your timeframe.
.25-.50% would be a huge win imo and best chance of that happening would have to be very close to that 60 day mark
.25-.50% would be a huge win imo and best chance of that happening would have to be very close to that 60 day mark
This post was edited on 1/17/26 at 9:38 am
Posted on 1/17/26 at 9:36 am to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
even if we got another .25 cut. Which isn’t even expected. Pause is. I would expect rates to hover around 6-6.5 for a bit. Which is a pretty good rate historically.
My first home was financed at 6.25% and I thought that was a great rate at the time. Covid rate cuts where you could finance at 2.5-3.5% were really a one time thing and people shouldn’t expect sub 5% rate IMO. That’s historically a very low rate.
Posted on 1/18/26 at 11:46 am to TigerMan327
quote:
We just had 3 consecutive interest rate cuts
Curious, did mortgage rates materially move since the first?
Posted on 1/18/26 at 12:41 pm to TigerMan327
quote:Basically irrelevant to mortgage rates.
Next fed meeting is in two weeks. Betting odds say low chance of another cut.
We just had 3 consecutive interest rate cuts. Count your lucky stars and close the deal
Now, Trump's dictat to Fannie/Freddie to buy $200B of securities at least temporarily caused mortgage spreads to go down about 15bps.
Posted on 1/18/26 at 2:21 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Curious, did mortgage rates materially move since the first?
Rates over time
First cut in Sept, rates a little over 6.5% in August, so dropped about 0.5% since then with rates just over 6% last week.
Interest rate cuts are irrelevant to mortgage rates though, it's about 10yr bond market
Posted on 1/18/26 at 6:32 pm to GeauxTime9
The ten year is in a reverse head and shoulders, so it’s not looking good for lower rates, will need a recession imo…or something really bad to get long rates down
Posted on 1/18/26 at 7:58 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Thank you! And say it again…the Fed does not affect mortgage rates. The yield on the 10yr US Treasury Note has been in a range for a while. I would expect that to stay the same unless we go into a major recession which would cause rates to fall.
However, once Trump has his Fed chair in place there are options to try and artificially (manipulate) lower longer term Treasury rates thereby lowering mortgage rates. The Fed can issue short term debt and use the proceeds to buy longer term Treasurys to try and force rates lower.
However, once Trump has his Fed chair in place there are options to try and artificially (manipulate) lower longer term Treasury rates thereby lowering mortgage rates. The Fed can issue short term debt and use the proceeds to buy longer term Treasurys to try and force rates lower.
Posted on 1/19/26 at 11:59 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Curious, did mortgage rates materially move since the first?
Yes the rates have started to drop since the first rate cut. And continued to drop with each cut.
But yes they aren't related in anyway.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 10:31 am to SDVTiger
Look. It is the resident know-nothing. Aren't you on the wrong board? The name calling board is over there where you belong.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 10:40 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Basically irrelevant to mortgage rates.
Now, Trump's dictat to Fannie/Freddie to buy $200B of securities at least temporarily caused mortgage spreads to go down about 15bps.
Irrelevant might be the wrong terminology, but your callout of the $200B is spot on. Several are correctly calling out the 10-year being the one to watch for mortgage rates. But multiple Fed Rate changes are indicative of future mortgage rates,
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