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Do you use BABIP for pitchers? *Updated 8/28/18 with data*
Posted on 6/6/18 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 6/6/18 at 3:38 pm
I know there are other "regression to the mean" stats like HR/FB, strand rate, etc. But for a quick and dirty look at which pitchers have been lucky/unlucky so far for trade targets, I'd like to know the predictive value of BABIP.
For reference, the top 5 BABIP (unluckiest) so far:
1. John Gray .376
2. Brandon McCarthy .342
3. Andrew Cashner .342
4. Noah Syndergaard .339
5. Marco Gonzales .339
Lowest 5 BABIP (luckiest) so far:
1. Justin Verlander .209
2. Sean Manaea .218
3. Julio Teheran .225
4. Bartolo Colon .228
5. Blake Snell .229
It will be interesting to track these 10 names to see if their overall numbers (ERA, WHIP) regress to the mean.
For reference, the top 5 BABIP (unluckiest) so far:
1. John Gray .376
2. Brandon McCarthy .342
3. Andrew Cashner .342
4. Noah Syndergaard .339
5. Marco Gonzales .339
Lowest 5 BABIP (luckiest) so far:
1. Justin Verlander .209
2. Sean Manaea .218
3. Julio Teheran .225
4. Bartolo Colon .228
5. Blake Snell .229
It will be interesting to track these 10 names to see if their overall numbers (ERA, WHIP) regress to the mean.
This post was edited on 8/28/18 at 3:58 pm
2
Posted on 6/6/18 at 4:13 pm to RidiculousHype
small tool but doesnt come close to telling the whole story like you mentioned. Same for hitters. Always gotta quantify it with other metrics
Gray, BMac, Cashner are about who they are. Do not want based on litany of factors
Syndergaard will be fine, dont even have to look. Marco BABIP already at .225 last 4 starts. Would be buying on those two
JV and Snell prob has a slight regression coming but theyre still shoving
Manaea up to .269 since the no hitter, has been bad and regressing. im selling
Teheran regression coming, im selling
Gray, BMac, Cashner are about who they are. Do not want based on litany of factors
Syndergaard will be fine, dont even have to look. Marco BABIP already at .225 last 4 starts. Would be buying on those two
JV and Snell prob has a slight regression coming but theyre still shoving
Manaea up to .269 since the no hitter, has been bad and regressing. im selling
Teheran regression coming, im selling
Posted on 6/6/18 at 8:58 pm to RidiculousHype
It's important to remember that sometimes guys have inflated or depressed BABIPs due to their skillsets. You picked the top 5 and bottom 5, and yea, those guys will likely regress some. The key is not only evaluating who is likely to regress to the mean, but accurately estimating their mean.
Andrew Cashner has the 2nd highest BABIP, but he's actually been lucky per statcast batted ball data- his xBA is 6 points higher than his actual batting average against, and his xwOBA is 15 points higher than his actual wOBA against.
Andrew Cashner has the 2nd highest BABIP, but he's actually been lucky per statcast batted ball data- his xBA is 6 points higher than his actual batting average against, and his xwOBA is 15 points higher than his actual wOBA against.
Posted on 8/28/18 at 3:57 pm to GynoSandberg
Here's how those pitchers' ERA/WHIP have changed since the date of the OP:
Unluckiest BABIP as of 6/6/18:
1. Jon Gray
ERA has lowered from 5.66 to 4.76
WHIP has lowered from 1.51 to 1.26
2. Brandon McCarthy
(injured)
3. Andrew Cashner
ERA has lowered from 5.02 to 4.79
WHIP has lowered from 1.67 to 1.50
4. Noah Syndergaard
ERA has increased from 3.06 to 3.51
WHIP has increased from 1.18 to 1.28
5. Marco Gonzales
ERA has increased from 3.38 to 4.32
WHIP has lowered from 1.31 to 1.28
Luckiest BABIP as of 6/6/18:
1. Justin Verlander
ERA has increased from 1.24 to 2.72
WHIP has increased from 0.72 to 0.94
2. Sean Manaea
ERA has stayed at 3.59
WHIP has increased from 1.01 to 1.08
3. Julio Teheran
ERA has lowered from 4.31 to 4.09
WHIP has lowered from 1.27 to 1.18
4. Bartolo Colon
ERA has increased from 4.16 to 5.45
WHIP has increased from 1.07 to 1.30
5. Blake Snell
ERA has lowered from 2.36 to 2.05
WHIP has increased from 0.94 to 0.99
The most extreme cases (Gray, Verlander) moved strongly in the direction you'd expect, but after them it's all over the place.
Unluckiest BABIP as of 6/6/18:
1. Jon Gray
ERA has lowered from 5.66 to 4.76
WHIP has lowered from 1.51 to 1.26
2. Brandon McCarthy
(injured)
3. Andrew Cashner
ERA has lowered from 5.02 to 4.79
WHIP has lowered from 1.67 to 1.50
4. Noah Syndergaard
ERA has increased from 3.06 to 3.51
WHIP has increased from 1.18 to 1.28
5. Marco Gonzales
ERA has increased from 3.38 to 4.32
WHIP has lowered from 1.31 to 1.28
Luckiest BABIP as of 6/6/18:
1. Justin Verlander
ERA has increased from 1.24 to 2.72
WHIP has increased from 0.72 to 0.94
2. Sean Manaea
ERA has stayed at 3.59
WHIP has increased from 1.01 to 1.08
3. Julio Teheran
ERA has lowered from 4.31 to 4.09
WHIP has lowered from 1.27 to 1.18
4. Bartolo Colon
ERA has increased from 4.16 to 5.45
WHIP has increased from 1.07 to 1.30
5. Blake Snell
ERA has lowered from 2.36 to 2.05
WHIP has increased from 0.94 to 0.99
The most extreme cases (Gray, Verlander) moved strongly in the direction you'd expect, but after them it's all over the place.
Posted on 8/28/18 at 4:08 pm to RidiculousHype
Give us the BABIPs from 6/6 til now plz
Posted on 8/28/18 at 4:26 pm to GynoSandberg
As of 6/6/18
Top 5 BABIP (unluckiest) so far:
1. John Gray .376 (now .323)
2. Brandon McCarthy (injured)
3. Andrew Cashner .342 (now .306)
4. Noah Syndergaard .339 (now .347)
5. Marco Gonzales .339 (now .333)
Lowest 5 BABIP (luckiest) so far:
1. Justin Verlander .209 (now .272)
2. Sean Manaea .218 (now .247)
3. Julio Teheran .225 (now .216)
4. Bartolo Colon .228 (now .279)
5. Blake Snell .229 (now .234)
Top 5 BABIP (unluckiest) so far:
1. John Gray .376 (now .323)
2. Brandon McCarthy (injured)
3. Andrew Cashner .342 (now .306)
4. Noah Syndergaard .339 (now .347)
5. Marco Gonzales .339 (now .333)
Lowest 5 BABIP (luckiest) so far:
1. Justin Verlander .209 (now .272)
2. Sean Manaea .218 (now .247)
3. Julio Teheran .225 (now .216)
4. Bartolo Colon .228 (now .279)
5. Blake Snell .229 (now .234)
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