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Started By
Message
re: Interesting FL election link, can see votes cast today in Pinellas County
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:24 am to BobBoucher
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:24 am to BobBoucher
quote:
At the current pace, Trump will lose Hillsborough by 35k votes, not counting IND of course. Strictly party line votes.
What was it in 2012
36,254
0
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:24 am to BobBoucher
quote:
At the current pace, Trump will lose Hillsborough by 35k votes. What was it in 2012?
Romney lost by 36k.
286k - 250k
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:25 am to BobBoucher
quote:
At the current pace, Trump will lose Hillsborough by 35k votes, not counting IND of course. Strictly party line votes.
What was it in 2012?
Again, Romney clearly won the IND vote in Hillsborough fairly significantly to close that huge Obama party margin to only 5% for the county in 2012. The graph that I photoshopped from their website and pasted in this thread is on page like 3 or 4
The HIllsborough and Pinnelas IND's will swing bigly to Trump - at least 10% but guess 15%
This post was edited on 11/8/16 at 11:25 am
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:25 am to Cajunese
quote:
I find the whole thing to be a little strange considering the fact that enthusiasm across the board for Hillary has been very low.
There's a hidden Hispanic vote that's showing up-- its not pro-Hillary so much as anti-Trump.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:25 am to Hog on the Hill
quote:
And it doesn't take into account unaffiliated voters at all (which have a disproportionately high number of Hispanics)
Hispanics are disproportionately registered dem. indy is white, mostly.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:25 am to BobBoucher
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:25 am to Hog on the Hill
quote:
That door swings both ways, of course, but polls have shown that Hillary gets a higher share of Democratic voters than Trump gets of GOP voters
It really depends what poll. Towards the end there wasn't much difference.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:26 am to cokebottleag
quote:
Hispanics are disproportionately registered dem. indy is white, mostly.
Agreed - HIspanics are registered by the DNC and are very heavy D
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:26 am to Hog on the Hill
quote:Trump gets about 87 and Hill about 89. It's negligible.
You're making the mistake of assuming that every GOP ballot is a Trump vote
That door swings both ways, of course, but polls have shown that Hillary gets a higher share of Democratic voters than Trump gets of GOP voters
quote:Trump is polling +14 with indies in Florida
And it doesn't take into account unaffiliated voters at all (which have a disproportionately high number of Hispanics)
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:26 am to Hog on the Hill
quote:
That door swings both ways, of course, but polls have shown that Hillary gets a higher share of Democratic voters than Trump gets of GOP voters
Not really true. Most polls I've seen have them pretty even.
quote:
And it doesn't take into account unaffiliated voters
Which Trump wins handily in FL
ETA: got beat to the punch
This post was edited on 11/8/16 at 11:27 am
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:27 am to Cajunese
That's what he won by, but he lost the unafiliated voters so the D-R skew was much higher than that
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:27 am to Hog on the Hill
I live in Orange County. There are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans. Democrats are at about 300k. Combine GOP and unaffiliated and there is about 450k.
Orange always goes Democrat in recent years. If it is even close, it will mean he wins Florida.
Pasco county is supposed to be a good predictor of the I-4 corridor
Orange always goes Democrat in recent years. If it is even close, it will mean he wins Florida.
Pasco county is supposed to be a good predictor of the I-4 corridor
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:28 am to GeneralLee
Again, don't panic about Broward. Obama beat Romney there 395k to 168k in 2012.
Trump is running a little behind that pace w/o factoring in Indies but remember that Romney barely lost the state and was in significantly WORSE shape than trump in early voting coming into the day.
Trump is going to absolutely crush in the Panhandle, he's crushing it in Tampa/St Pete and he's going to crush in the Jacksonville suburbs
Trump is running a little behind that pace w/o factoring in Indies but remember that Romney barely lost the state and was in significantly WORSE shape than trump in early voting coming into the day.
Trump is going to absolutely crush in the Panhandle, he's crushing it in Tampa/St Pete and he's going to crush in the Jacksonville suburbs
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:28 am to BobBoucher
quote:
At the current pace, Trump will lose Hillsborough by 35k votes, not counting IND of course. Strictly party line votes.
That's interesting because the vote difference has held steady around D+25,100 for the last couple of hours.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:28 am to GeneralLee
Up 8472 as of 12:20 in Pinellas. 
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:29 am to SirWinston
quote:
The HIllsborough and Pinnelas IND's will swing bigly to Trump - at least 10% but guess 15
If Trump is winning 60% of non-affiliated, he's tied right now in Hillsborough.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:29 am to BobBoucher
quote:
At the current pace, Trump will lose Hillsborough by 35k votes, not counting IND of course. Strictly party line votes.
How do you figure? Rs are trailing by about 25k.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:30 am to GeneralLee
quote:
Larry Schweikart
Larry Schweikart – ?@LarrySchweikart
So far, Pasco, Hernando, Hillsborough, Pinellas, all strongly past Romney 2012 levels. Duval at pace (barely
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:30 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
(no message)
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:31 am to montanagator
Entirely predictable, but you can't tell a Trumpkin anything without being insulted.
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