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The Math: Trump 2016 Would’ve Beaten Obama 2012
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:18 pm
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:18 pm
quote:
It’s easy to glance at Tuesday’s popular vote — which, with 92 percent of all precincts reporting, shows Hillary Clinton with six million fewer votes than Barack Obama won in 2012 – and reach the conclusion that Clinton lost the White House because she failed to turn out the Democratic base. But the truth is much more complicated. While she underperformed relative to Obama’s 2012 totals in several Midwestern states — Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin — Clinton ran virtually even with Obama in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. What’s more, she far surpassed Obama’s 2012 vote total in Florida, the country’s biggest swing state. Yet somehow, while Obama carried Florida, Clinton lost it. Which brings us to an important question: Was Donald Trump just good enough to beat a bad Democratic opponent on Tuesday, or does he deserve far more credit? Could he, for instance, have competed with the vaunted Obama machine? The answer, somewhat shockingly, is yes. A review of vote totals in the past two elections reveals that Trump 2016 would have defeated Obama 2012 in the electoral college. (Disclaimer: This obviously is an apples-to-oranges exercise because no two elections are the same, nor are any two electorates. Still, unlike debating whether the 2016 Cubs would defeat the 1927 Yankees, this is not an entirely abstract argument; a comparison of their respective performances in the country’s most competitive states shows Trump edging Obama in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.)
From the National Review
4
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:24 pm to FrenchToast
I'm glad he waited. This election meant more to the country than it did in 2012.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:27 pm to FrenchToast
He was running against Clinton. Of course it looks like that. Obama would have wiped the floor with trump
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:30 pm to FrenchToast
No he wouldn't have, blacks vote for color. If HRC was black she would have won by a landslide even after drinking the blood of a newborn on live TV.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:31 pm to JusTrollin
quote:
blacks vote for color. If
Didn't they do that in 2012?
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:32 pm to Grim
Obama was going to wipe the floor with whoever Republicans nominated
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:33 pm to Grim
quote:
He was running against Clinton. Of course it looks like that. Obama would have wiped the floor with trump
As opposed to Romney who excited no one? Come on, that thinking it ridiculous. Sure it would of been completely different, but Mexicans weren't worried about being sent back to Mexico and African Americans certainly didn't think Romney may send them back to Africa.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:40 pm to FrenchToast
It's as if states like Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia aren't growing in rapidly population. The US has something like 10 million more 18+ voters since 2012, and those states are greatly outpacing the country.
And Obama outperformed her by 150,000 votes in Pennsylvania, by 60,000 in Virginia, and by 23,000 in New Hampshire.
Not to mention how much he outperformed her in Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The math doesn't support the argument.
And Obama outperformed her by 150,000 votes in Pennsylvania, by 60,000 in Virginia, and by 23,000 in New Hampshire.
Not to mention how much he outperformed her in Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The math doesn't support the argument.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:43 pm to baldona
quote:The same Romney that had a million more votes with smaller voting electorate available (like 10 million).
As opposed to Romney who excited no one?
quote:Then why did Trump call Romney's immigration position "mean sprited?"
but Mexicans weren't worried about being sent back to Mexico
This post was edited on 11/9/16 at 9:45 pm
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