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Started By
Message
re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:42 am to hashtag
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:42 am to hashtag
OSU's computer score will go to .960 with a win over OU.
If I recall in regards to the CPU polls, the highest and lowest rankings are dropped and you average the rest. OSU is currently ranked #3 in two polls and #2 in the other four, so they currently have a #3 ranking in their CPU calculation. A win over OU will give them all 6 #2 rankings in the CPUs, which will up their score from .950 to .960
Now, as far as the human polls, I can see some sentiment swaying to OSU if they beat OU. The plane crash, and death of two OSU coaches will, IMO, swing a few #2 votes from Alabama to OSU. The players may not have been affected, but the AD and coaching staff HAD to be rattled a bit. Remember that 10 years ago, an OSU plane crashed after a game vs Colorado, and 10 basketball players/coaches/AD personnel were killed in that crash. Gundy as well as a few other assistants currently on this OSU team were coaching under Les Miles at the time.
OSU will be a solid #2 in the CPU polls after a win over OU, and enough votes will swing to them in the Harris and Coaches to put them over the top. I ran some numbers last night, and if Alabama drops to 2728 points (from 2758) in the Harris and 1390 (from 1413) in the Coaches and OSU gets all of these points, they will face LSU in the BCSNCG.
..or we could just have a massive upset of Alabama by Auburn to end this rematch shite altogether.
If I recall in regards to the CPU polls, the highest and lowest rankings are dropped and you average the rest. OSU is currently ranked #3 in two polls and #2 in the other four, so they currently have a #3 ranking in their CPU calculation. A win over OU will give them all 6 #2 rankings in the CPUs, which will up their score from .950 to .960
Now, as far as the human polls, I can see some sentiment swaying to OSU if they beat OU. The plane crash, and death of two OSU coaches will, IMO, swing a few #2 votes from Alabama to OSU. The players may not have been affected, but the AD and coaching staff HAD to be rattled a bit. Remember that 10 years ago, an OSU plane crashed after a game vs Colorado, and 10 basketball players/coaches/AD personnel were killed in that crash. Gundy as well as a few other assistants currently on this OSU team were coaching under Les Miles at the time.
OSU will be a solid #2 in the CPU polls after a win over OU, and enough votes will swing to them in the Harris and Coaches to put them over the top. I ran some numbers last night, and if Alabama drops to 2728 points (from 2758) in the Harris and 1390 (from 1413) in the Coaches and OSU gets all of these points, they will face LSU in the BCSNCG.
..or we could just have a massive upset of Alabama by Auburn to end this rematch shite altogether.
3
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:52 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
..or we could just have a massive upset of Alabama by Auburn to end this rematch shite altogether.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:13 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
OSU's computer score will go to .960 with a win over OU.
I don't know if them playing OU is even necessary for this bump. LSU beating Arkansas, Wisky beating Penn State, and Bama beating Auburn could hurt Bama enough to give OSU the 0.960.
Bama Computer Rankings:
3 3 3 3 3 2 2
OSU Computer Rankings:
2 2 2 2 2 3 3
OSU only need to swap one of those in order to get the full .960, because the highest and lowest are thrown out. That would bump them from .950 to .960 and Bama from .930 to .920.
I think that this can happen this week while OSU is at home. Plus, they'll move at least one spot up in the human polls past Arkansas. So, OSU could get half way to passing Bama while they sit at home.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:24 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
OSU will be a solid #2 in the CPU polls after a win over OU, and enough votes will swing to them in the Harris and Coaches to put them over the top. I ran some numbers last night, and if Alabama drops to 2728 points (from 2758) in the Harris and 1390 (from 1413) in the Coaches and OSU gets all of these points, they will face LSU in the BCSNCG.
Okie ST could get these votes even without a Stanford or Va Tech loss but if these teams lose in the next 2 weeks, I'd say there is a very likely chance they get enough votes in the human polls after championship and bedlam week provided they beat OU.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 9:28 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:58 am to jdg91878
good stuff guys
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:29 am to 756
Ott just had Chris Landry and said if Bama beats Auburn, they are in. Heard Edwards say the same. I am not going to waste any money on buying options for Okie St then. I have my 10 for LSU and will be happy.
Geaux Auburn!
Geaux Auburn!
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:32 am to 756
The easiest way to think about all this is that OSU will likely be 1 full spot above Bama in the computers, meaning OSU needs to be within 1/2 spot of Bama in the human polls (or equivalently have about 25% of voters put them Bama). I will let you have your own opinion about what voters would do, but 25% doesn't seem to be impossible by any stretch considering OSU would have a big win while Bama is idle. They would also have the whole conference champ/no rematch argument on their side.
A similar analysis can be made for the potential 3-way tie. If LSU loses, the computers probably have LSU around 1.5 (tied with OSU) and have Arky at about 3.5 or 4th. That means LSU would just need be within 1 full spot of Arky in the human polls. It seems logical that almost all voters put Bama #1 over Arky and then even if every voter put Arky over LSU, LSU could still be fine. LSU's bad fortune would come if Arky/Bama shared #1 while LSU was a basic unanimous #3 or if voters dropped LSU below teams like OSU, Va Tech, and Stanford.
A similar analysis can be made for the potential 3-way tie. If LSU loses, the computers probably have LSU around 1.5 (tied with OSU) and have Arky at about 3.5 or 4th. That means LSU would just need be within 1 full spot of Arky in the human polls. It seems logical that almost all voters put Bama #1 over Arky and then even if every voter put Arky over LSU, LSU could still be fine. LSU's bad fortune would come if Arky/Bama shared #1 while LSU was a basic unanimous #3 or if voters dropped LSU below teams like OSU, Va Tech, and Stanford.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:40 am to lsumatt
quote:
LSU's bad fortune would come if Arky/Bama shared #1 while LSU was a basic unanimous #3 or if voters dropped LSU below teams like OSU, Va Tech, and Stanford.
How could us losing to the #3 ranked team in the nation drop us below VT or Stanford? Bama only dropped 2 spots when they lost to LSU.
If LSU loses to Arky and doesn't make the SECCG, are we left out of the BCS altogether? Where would we end up, the Capital One Bowl?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:45 am to LouisianaLonghorn
quote:
How could us losing to the #3 ranked team in the nation drop us below VT or Stanford? Bama only dropped 2 spots when they lost to LSU.
I am just proposing possibilities that could potentially keep us out. I wouldn't think voters would put us below them, but a hand full could follow the "end of the line" mentality.
quote:
If LSU loses to Arky and doesn't make the SECCG, are we left out of the BCS altogether? Where would we end up, the Capital One Bowl?
Possibly. Depends on which team left out is higher in the BCS
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:49 am to lsumatt
quote:
Possibly. Depends on which team left out is higher in the BCS
Wow....just wow.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:54 am to lsumatt
quote:
Possibly. Depends on which team left out is higher in the BCS
Wouldn't the bowl be able to pick whichever team they wanted at this point?
i.e., LSU loses to Arkansas, BCS finishes:
Alabama
Arkansas
LSU
so, Bama goes to SECCG and BCSCG. Then, the Sugar Bowl could pick either Arkansas or LSU. Right?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:55 am to lsumatt
Matt -
I have thought about this for quite a while and I am almost 100% sure LSU is in the NC with a loss to Arky, especially if OSU beats OU.
Reason #1: Computer score. OSU held on to #2 in most of the computers with a loss to Iowa State, so I have little doubt that LSU will fall out of 1st in all of the computers by losing to Arkansas. That gives LSU 1.000 for that segment. Further, OSU winning would cement them at #2. Bama winning would AT LEAST split #3 with Arkansas, if not win it outright completely. That puts Arky with a .9000 computer score, at best, IMO.
Reason #2: November 27th polls and December 4th polls. I think LSU could be punished a bit in the November 27th polls since the loss would be so fresh. Also, I do not think the pollsters will be as adept to taking into consideration the entire season, at least not like they will be on December 4th. So, I am not as inclined to say that LSU is in the SECCG for sure. However, when the dust clears on December 4th, there will be a clusterfrick in the human polls, particularly if Bama goes to the SECCG and wins. So, Bama will likely have most of the #1 votes, but I think LSU will steal some as well due to the head to head aspect. I also think voters will be more conscious of their choices and LSU will easily be in the mix. While some voters may justify putting Bama and Arky ahead of LSU, I think the buck stops there. I do not think LSU will find itself behind OSU or VT or Stanford on any ballots. Even if LSU gets purely #3 votes (and as I have already stated, I think they will get more than that), that gives them .9200 and .9200 for the human segments. That is an average of .9466. Even if Arky splits the #3 computers with Bama, they will need to get .9700 average between the 2 human polls. That is an equivalent of an average of 1.75 on each ballot. For every 3 people that put Arkansas second, one needs to put them #1. That is 15 #1 votes in the Coache's poll. I cannot fathom that happening, and thus I think LSU will easily end up as at least the #2 team in the BCS, especially on the final rankings.
This assumes, if LSU goes to the SECCG with a loss, they win that game. If that happens, LSU is definitely in the NC.
I have thought about this for quite a while and I am almost 100% sure LSU is in the NC with a loss to Arky, especially if OSU beats OU.
Reason #1: Computer score. OSU held on to #2 in most of the computers with a loss to Iowa State, so I have little doubt that LSU will fall out of 1st in all of the computers by losing to Arkansas. That gives LSU 1.000 for that segment. Further, OSU winning would cement them at #2. Bama winning would AT LEAST split #3 with Arkansas, if not win it outright completely. That puts Arky with a .9000 computer score, at best, IMO.
Reason #2: November 27th polls and December 4th polls. I think LSU could be punished a bit in the November 27th polls since the loss would be so fresh. Also, I do not think the pollsters will be as adept to taking into consideration the entire season, at least not like they will be on December 4th. So, I am not as inclined to say that LSU is in the SECCG for sure. However, when the dust clears on December 4th, there will be a clusterfrick in the human polls, particularly if Bama goes to the SECCG and wins. So, Bama will likely have most of the #1 votes, but I think LSU will steal some as well due to the head to head aspect. I also think voters will be more conscious of their choices and LSU will easily be in the mix. While some voters may justify putting Bama and Arky ahead of LSU, I think the buck stops there. I do not think LSU will find itself behind OSU or VT or Stanford on any ballots. Even if LSU gets purely #3 votes (and as I have already stated, I think they will get more than that), that gives them .9200 and .9200 for the human segments. That is an average of .9466. Even if Arky splits the #3 computers with Bama, they will need to get .9700 average between the 2 human polls. That is an equivalent of an average of 1.75 on each ballot. For every 3 people that put Arkansas second, one needs to put them #1. That is 15 #1 votes in the Coache's poll. I cannot fathom that happening, and thus I think LSU will easily end up as at least the #2 team in the BCS, especially on the final rankings.
This assumes, if LSU goes to the SECCG with a loss, they win that game. If that happens, LSU is definitely in the NC.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:58 am to hashtag
quote:
so, Bama goes to SECCG and BCSCG. Then, the Sugar Bowl could pick either Arkansas or LSU. Right?
If we are assuming the final BCS looks like:
1. Bama
2. OSU
3. Arky
4. LSU
Arky gets an auto bid for being #3 and LSU is left out because of the 3-team rule.
Btw, slackster are we in agreement on the coments in the original post? I think JPLSU1981 and other knowledgeable posters are all in agreement that (1) OSU has a very good shot, (2) LSU is in at 12-1 and a loss to UGA, and (3) LSU would probably be okay with a close loss to Arky
Posted on 11/21/11 at 11:02 am to lsumatt
(no message)
This post was edited on 2/7/13 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 11:07 am to Weaver
quote:
Ott just had Chris Landry and said if Bama beats Auburn, they are in. Heard Edwards say the same. I am not going to waste any money on buying options for Okie St then. I have my 10 for LSU and will be happy.
All these analysts just plainly saying bama is in with a win are devaluing what the voters will do after bedlam. Like Lsumatt said, with okie St computer score, all they need is around 25% of the 2nd place votes. In our current system, I don't really see how they can justify putting a team in that won't win their own division over a conference winner; unless their agenda is to blow the BCS up. One of the guys on Espn was saying Stanford most likely wont win the PAC 12 so there is no way they should be considered because of this. Yet, bama is in the same situation and no mention of it when they discuss bama.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 11:22 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 11:38 am to lsumatt
quote:
Btw, slackster are we in agreement on the coments in the original post?
Yeah, pretty much. I think OSU has too far to go in the humans, but we agree on the computers.
I do not see any way LSU gives up the #1 spot in the computers, specifically the the #1 unanimous spot in the computers, even with a loss to Arky. I think OSU would be nipping on our heals, but I do not think they would get it, especially if Oregon wins out and Bama wins out.
LSU is, without a doubt, in if they lose to UGA, as long as it is their only loss.
As far as the SECCG, I look at it this way - LSU will not fall behind both Arky and Alabama, and Arky will not climb ahead of both Bama and LSU, so that puts Bama at 1, LSU at 2, and Arky at 3, and LSU would go to Atlanta.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 11:39 am to jdg91878
quote:
All these analysts just plainly saying bama is in with a win are devaluing what the voters will do after bedlam. Like Lsumatt said, with okie St computer score, all they need is around 25% of the 2nd place votes. In our current system, I don't really see how they can justify putting a team in that won't win their own division over a conference winner; unless their agenda is to blow the BCS up. One of the guys on Espn was saying Stanford most likely wont win the PAC 12 so there is no way they should be considered because of this. Yet, bama is in the same situation and no mention of it when they discuss bama
I think recent history has shown that voters greatly value conf champions. As I'm sure it's been discussed (assuming everyone wins out) I would not be surprised to see the final human polls look like this:
1. LSU
2. Va. Tech or OSU
3. Va. Tech or OSU
4. Alabama
Whether explictly stated or not, being the conf champ was the main (if not the sole) reason in 2006 UF jumped Michigan in the human polls despite Mich. being ranked higher than UF to start championship game Saturday.
Same thing in 2007. LSU jumped Georgia AND a 1-loss Kansas team after the SECCG. The reasoning given - LSU were conf. champs while UGA finished 2nd in the East and KU finished 2nd in the North.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 11:50 am to Alt26
all things equal .. this is a replay of 2006 .. the voters didn't want to see a rematch in the NCG and traded their michigan votes for florida votes .. it's not like "SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC" isn't rammed down people's throats weekly and has been for the last five years .. outside of the southeast US .. people are tired of it probably and just don't want to see an LSU vs. Alabama title game .. i think Oklahoma State, should they beat OU, could realistically be the opponent .. Bama's schedule after you get past us and Arky isn't anything to write home about ..
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:00 pm to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
Does VaTech winning out, and winning the ACC give them any chance of moving into that top 3 range? They'are 4th in Coaches and 5th in Harris.
Also, is there any chance that the BCS themselves could argue that a rematch would violate a contract between them and the SEC? The SEC champion has a berth in the Sugar Bowl unless they are playing for a title. In which case the next SEC team plays in the bowl. Could it be argued that the SEC must send someone(in this case Bama) to the Sugar Bowl? The rule that allows for three teams does not apply if LSU wins the sec.
quote:
No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games unless two non-champions from a BCS conference finish as the top two teams in the final BCS standings, in which case they will meet in the National Title Game while their conference champion will play in their conference's BCS bowl game.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:03 pm to TigahRag
Rag, the difference between now and 2006 is that the Michigan/Ohio State game was played at the end of the season. Most people felt it was unsavory for them to play again so soon. Also, they didn't have to play an extra game like Florida did (ie, no conference championship).
This year seems different. If Alabama handily beats Auburn, it will be hard to deny them a chance at the title.
This year seems different. If Alabama handily beats Auburn, it will be hard to deny them a chance at the title.
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