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Message
re: Anyone buying MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR)?
Posted on 12/5/24 at 8:01 am to HagaDaga
Posted on 12/5/24 at 8:01 am to HagaDaga
quote:
What throws me off is how it went into the 530 range when it was dangling around just under 100k. Now it may hit close to 500 when BTC is in the 102/3 range.
This really shouldn't throw you off. MSTR price action is insanely volatile and will continue to move independently of BTC price.
Next year we could have a net asset value of 10 or 1. The market will decide.
2
Posted on 12/5/24 at 8:06 am to I Love Bama
Ok. When I first started watching it (very recently) it seemed to ride BTCs coattails so I'm still new to understanding it.
I'm not finance educated, and learning, general gist of what this means and what indicators should be looked at here?
quote:
Next year we could have a net asset value of 10 or 1. The market will decide.
I'm not finance educated, and learning, general gist of what this means and what indicators should be looked at here?
Posted on 12/5/24 at 8:11 am to HagaDaga
Net asset value.
For example, with MSTR, we have a NAV of between 2-3 which means you are paying $200,000 - $300,000 for Bitcoin rather than $100,000 at the fair market price.
People are betting on MSTR to be able to make a yield on their Bitcoin which is why they are paying a premium.
If the market thinks they will be able to generate a high yield, NAV could skyrocket. If the market thinks they won't, it could drop down to 1.
This is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. I would own Bitcoin before I owned this but if you already have exposure this is a good gamble.
For example, with MSTR, we have a NAV of between 2-3 which means you are paying $200,000 - $300,000 for Bitcoin rather than $100,000 at the fair market price.
People are betting on MSTR to be able to make a yield on their Bitcoin which is why they are paying a premium.
If the market thinks they will be able to generate a high yield, NAV could skyrocket. If the market thinks they won't, it could drop down to 1.
This is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. I would own Bitcoin before I owned this but if you already have exposure this is a good gamble.
Posted on 12/5/24 at 8:19 am to I Love Bama
Thanks for that insight. I do have some. Not much but enough to keep me wanting to learn more about BTC. Better late than never I guess. 
I haven't really figured out how to simply (able to buy in my regular Fidelity acct like reg stocks) get exposure to more "raw BTC." Why I got in here.
Is it a crapshoot on being a able to tell this and when it happens? Or will there be actual indicators of what the market will think? Or just need to wait for some major institution(s) to come out with something to benefit which ever play they went with?
I haven't really figured out how to simply (able to buy in my regular Fidelity acct like reg stocks) get exposure to more "raw BTC." Why I got in here.
quote:
If the market thinks they will be able to generate a high yield, NAV could skyrocket. If the market thinks they won't, it could drop down to 1.
Is it a crapshoot on being a able to tell this and when it happens? Or will there be actual indicators of what the market will think? Or just need to wait for some major institution(s) to come out with something to benefit which ever play they went with?
Posted on 12/5/24 at 9:12 am to HagaDaga
So the drop being people taking profits or some kind of news?
Posted on 12/5/24 at 9:13 am to I Love Bama
I feel like I need you to say all of that again, but even simpler
Posted on 12/5/24 at 9:54 am to I Love Bama
quote:
MSTR price action is insanely volatile and will continue to move independently of BTC price.
I want to understand this better. As I mentioned when I first got into mstr it did seem to mirror BTCs mvmts. Now it does seem to not as much on the way up...as I said earlier it didn't get close to 500 like before when it popped across 100k. Now that BTC is retracting into the mid 101k range, as of this post, MSTR is now down a little, after being up this morning. Following BTCs downturn this morning. So I'm trying to better understand that daily movement to see how its independent. Which I think is different from the yield piece you mentioned, which was helpful more on the longer play perspective.
I've read your posts on here, and totally believe you understand this all at a different level. Just trying to have a convo to better understand it from a trading perspective. Not trying to step on toes or get the "look at this newb" grumpy responses that tends to happen.
I get it's volatile, which is why I'm trying to grasp it better from a trading perspective, but trying to understand how it's now seems more independent from BTC on the way up than on the way down. TIA.
Posted on 12/5/24 at 10:43 am to HagaDaga
I co-sign the above post.
I’m so new to this but it definitely feels like MSTR and BTC price movements no longer mirror each other as much.
My guess is MSTR was simply way overheated and the $540 we saw was a function of that. Feels like MSTR will bounce around somewhat independent of BTC(except on big BTC downturns) until MSTR’s price is closer to….whatever “should” be.
Then it’ll start to more closely mirror BTC’s ups and downs.
Or something, idk
I’m so new to this but it definitely feels like MSTR and BTC price movements no longer mirror each other as much.
My guess is MSTR was simply way overheated and the $540 we saw was a function of that. Feels like MSTR will bounce around somewhat independent of BTC(except on big BTC downturns) until MSTR’s price is closer to….whatever “should” be.
Then it’ll start to more closely mirror BTC’s ups and downs.
Or something, idk
This post was edited on 12/5/24 at 10:50 am
Posted on 12/5/24 at 10:49 am to ReauxlTide222
I’m in no rush to do this, but I think I’m going to start preparing to buy 2 bitcoins the right way, and then continue to hold what I have left of MSTR as a “gamble.”
At some point I don’t want to be checking MSTR’s price 600x per day. I can stomach the volatility of BTC and I’m in this for the long haul.
But I might die if I don’t check MSTR for a week or so long in the future and some event kills it
At some point I don’t want to be checking MSTR’s price 600x per day. I can stomach the volatility of BTC and I’m in this for the long haul.
But I might die if I don’t check MSTR for a week or so long in the future and some event kills it
Posted on 12/5/24 at 10:54 am to HagaDaga
It could be several things. It could be shorts selling. It could be news. It could be Saylor himself selling off company shares to purchase more BTC.
Posted on 12/5/24 at 10:56 am to ReauxlTide222
Would not shock me with all the tail wind stuff coming for MSTR and the way BTC is going if we are not sitting between 600-800 a share before the end of the year,
Posted on 12/5/24 at 11:26 am to LSUSLU106
quote:
It could be several things. It could be shorts selling. It could be news. It could be Saylor himself selling off company shares to purchase more BTC.
Also, people get mad about shorts but alot of that is part of the allure of MSTR. Convertible bond arbitragers will alternate between short and long positions depending upon many factors. Sailor himself understands that’s part of the game when you’re issuing convertible bonds with 0% coupons.
Posted on 12/5/24 at 11:46 am to LSUSLU106
50-100% in 3 weeks wouldnt shock you?
Would it shock you if it went down 50%+ ?
Would it shock you if it went down 50%+ ?
Posted on 12/5/24 at 12:15 pm to theRealJesseD
No nothing shocks me but either get on the train or not only matter of time before another run.
Posted on 12/5/24 at 12:37 pm to HagaDaga
quote:Saylor is diluting the frick out of the shares right now and over the past 2 weeks. As a short term view I hate it because I just want number go up but looking long term, he is striking while the iron is hot and using it to stack as much btc as he possibly can
What throws me off is how it went into the 530 range when it was dangling around just under 100k. Now it may hit close to 500 when BTC is in the 102/3 range.
Posted on 12/6/24 at 6:48 pm to I Love Bama
quote:Literally, all one needs to know.
For example, with MSTR, we have a NAV of between 2-3 which means you are paying $200,000 - $300,000 for Bitcoin rather than $100,000 at the fair market price.
Posted on 12/6/24 at 9:45 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Literally, all one needs to know.
Right, but Saylor pushing the "BTC Yield" is the intriguing allure to owning MSTR right now. YTD his BTC Yield is 63.3%. So while you are currently "paying" $200k/bitcoin at a 2 NAV, you hold the stock for 2 years (assuming BTC continues at this pace for a simplistic explanation), and your bitcoin ownership per share has increased ~125%, thus making your "cost basis" of the bitcoin less than if you were to just buy spot today at $100k.
Said in another way, if Saylor can do a 25% annualized BTC yield over the next 4 years, and I buy a share today at a 2 NAV, then in 4 years it will be like I paid $50k/bitcoin equivalent for that bitcoin value per share even though when I bought the share bitcoin was $100k each.
This post was edited on 12/6/24 at 9:46 pm
Posted on 12/6/24 at 11:07 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Right, but Saylor pushing the "BTC Yield" is the intriguing allure to owning MSTR right now. YTD his BTC Yield is 63.3%.
What is the BTC yield during pullbacks in BTC? I’m not familiar with the calculation.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:31 am to slackster
MSTR is a leveraged play like others have said, this isn't something I'd trade, this is simply a buy and hold and look at in 4 years and thank your luck stars.
My advice is to purchase this in your Roth 401k that the taxes are already paid for.
My advice is to purchase this in your Roth 401k that the taxes are already paid for.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:48 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
a leveraged play like others have said, this isn't something I'd trade, this is simply a buy and hold and look at in 4 years and thank your luck stars.
Every money manager in the world is cringing.
You might very well be giving advice that makes money, its just funny to me to hear something so counter to what's accepted to be correct, buy and hold long and don't look at a leverage play.
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 1:58 pm
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