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Message
re: Anyone buying MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR)?
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:06 pm to TigerTatorTots
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:06 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:But this is all complete nonsense. Pure Greater Fool Theory.
Right, but Saylor pushing the "BTC Yield" is the intriguing allure to owning MSTR right now. YTD his BTC Yield is 63.3%. So while you are currently "paying" $200k/bitcoin at a 2 NAV, you hold the stock for 2 years (assuming BTC continues at this pace for a simplistic explanation), and your bitcoin ownership per share has increased ~125%, thus making your "cost basis" of the bitcoin less than if you were to just buy spot today at $100k.
Said in another way, if Saylor can do a 25% annualized BTC yield over the next 4 years, and I buy a share today at a 2 NAV, then in 4 years it will be like I paid $50k/bitcoin equivalent for that bitcoin value per share even though when I bought the share bitcoin was $100k each.
What's tricky here is that the founder is a genius and this is likely literally the greatest trade of all time (for HIM). I think a lot of people just can't see past that.
But for "investors", it's OBVIOUSLY nothing more than a pyramid type scheme destined to end in heartache big time for some.
Do this thought experiment: what if MSTR ended up with literally all the bitcoin in the world. What would happen then? Certainly it wouldn't still trade at a 2-4X premium to the actual price of bitcoin itself.
It's totally fine if you all want to gamble on this for fun. It's less fine to put a patina of gravitas on it for the MT. People are coming here for real advice to protect their nest eggs and grow them safely. This shite is not that.
ETA: I think people confuse criticism of MSTR with a judgment call on bitcoin. It's not. Despite my very high skepticism over crypto/bitcoin, this analysis is neutral to that. There simply is not reason - and will never be a reason - to pay 300% the spot price of bitcoin when there are numerous low fee ETFs to buy it at ~spot.
Another fake talking point is "this is a leveraged bet on bitcoin". They are like 1.2X levered at best An actual levered bet on bitcoin would be margining other securities to buy more bitcoin or buying an ETF that borrows money to buy more bitcoin.
But even though this is NOT a levered bet on bitcoin, the vol is ~3X that of actual bitcoin, and thus the options (particularly the upside calls) are trading at like 10X or more any semblance of a rational value.
Bitcoin vol is ~30 and MSTR vol is ~150. That is insane and ridiculous.
The REAL trade here if you have hair on your chest is to sell a boatload of upside calls and buy bitcoin spot.
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 12:18 pm
3
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:34 pm to Big Scrub TX
Im curious. At what point in the future would you admit your thesis is wrong?
For example, say 50 Fortune 500 companies carry BTC on their balance sheet, Middle East countries start pricing oil in bitcoin or there is a Bitcoin reserve.
Where is the line in the sand for you to reevaluate your beliefs?
For example, say 50 Fortune 500 companies carry BTC on their balance sheet, Middle East countries start pricing oil in bitcoin or there is a Bitcoin reserve.
Where is the line in the sand for you to reevaluate your beliefs?
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:37 pm to I Love Bama
quote:You literally ignored what I wrote. Any MSTR commentary is bitcoin agnostic.
Im curious. At what point in the future would you admit your thesis is wrong?
For example, say 50 Fortune 500 companies carry BTC on their balance sheet, Middle East countries start pricing oil in bitcoin or there is a Bitcoin reserve.
Where is the line in the sand for you to reevaluate your beliefs?
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:45 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
Im curious. At what point in the future would you admit your thesis is wrong? For example, say 50 Fortune 500 companies carry BTC on their balance sheet, Middle East countries start pricing oil in bitcoin or there is a Bitcoin reserve. Where is the line in the sand for you to reevaluate your beliefs?
If this (likely scenario) does happen MSTR will be even more overvalued than they are now. The company is a joke. Literally anyone can replicate it. And when/if it’s common to have some treasury in BTC, what does saylor offer then? Just the cult aspect.
Bitcoin bull. Saylor bear. He’s snake oil. Every MSTR spike up, I’m grabbing MSTZ and collecting an easy 10-20%. Not holding. Yet. But there will be a time when it’s a great hold. Despite the decay. NFA
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:46 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
The REAL trade
The real trade is the massive stock compensation that is diluting shareholders on top of the dilution from their offerings to buy Bitcoin.
Saylor and company have been dumping shares as soon as they possibly can this year.. That should tell you where think this is heading.
Saylor alone has cashed out 440M in compensation to cash, and the board closing in on 1B. All on the backs of their "investors".
Once the volatility trade ends this one will fall pretty quickly. All the bond holders want continued volatility, they don't want the converted shares.
However it should be said if there a massive crash, the bond holders are senior to the stock holders. They basically will be able to liquidate the BTC and cash out. Probably leaving nothing to stock holders
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:53 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
The real trade is the massive stock compensation that is diluting shareholders on top of the dilution from their offerings to buy Bitcoin.
Saylor and company have been dumping shares as soon as they possibly can this year.. That should tell you where think this is heading.
Saylor alone has cashed out 440M in compensation to cash, and the board closing in on 1B. All on the backs of their "investors".
Once the volatility trade ends this one will fall pretty quickly. All the bond holders want continued volatility, they don't want the converted shares.
However it should be said if there a massive crash, the bond holders are senior to the stock holders. They basically will be able to liquidate the BTC and cash out. Probably leaving nothing to stock holders
Posted on 12/7/24 at 1:04 pm to Big Scrub TX
You both should share your short positions in MSTR, TIA. I’ll post my percentage Im up on the stock
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:39 pm to SeymourButts
quote:
both should share your short positions in MSTR
Would be insane to try to time trades with no fundamentals. Same as playing the lottery. I would advise against going long or short.
Unless you are playing the volatility trade with options, I would stick to the sidelines.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:44 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:Does Saylor really strike you as a guy lacking conviction in his strategy? That's an interesting angle.
Saylor and company have been dumping shares as soon as they possibly can this year.. That should tell you where think this is heading.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:49 pm to beaverfever
quote:
Does Saylor really strike you as a guy lacking conviction in his strategy? That's an interesting angle.
No I think it's working exactly like he hoped and probably beyond. Guy is making hundreds of millions selling stock selling a story and spending everyone else's money.
The company was left for dead before the pivot, and the software business is abysmal even now.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:55 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Would be insane to try to time trades with no fundamentals. Same as playing the lottery. I would advise against going long or short.
Unless you are playing the volatility trade with options, I would stick to the sidelines.
Thankfully many of us understand/understood the play and went long. I made hundreds of thousands on the trade.
LINK
To put it in the most simplistic terms. If you came to me and said "ILB, I have the ability to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars at 0% and put it in an asset that has a CAGR of over 30% for the last 15 years. Do you want to go in with me on this?"
I would say, frick yeah I do. Other investors are saying the same thing.
Now I sold and took it off the table so I could diversify into the S&P more as I was overweight BTC but let's not act like it is a lottery ticket.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:57 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Agreed, and I call this out as one of the risks to bitcoin itself - if MSTR acquires too much too fast, it discourages other players from attempting to compete.
Do this thought experiment: what if MSTR ended up with literally all the bitcoin in the world. What would happen then? Certainly it wouldn't still trade at a 2-4X premium to the actual price of bitcoin itself.
quote:Also agree, MSTR is not something anyone should be using to protect a nest egg. That is what I would recommend bitcoin for.
It's totally fine if you all want to gamble on this for fun. It's less fine to put a patina of gravitas on it for the MT. People are coming here for real advice to protect their nest eggs and grow them safely. This shite is not that.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 4:00 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
MSTR is not something anyone should be using to protect a nest egg. That is what I would recommend bitcoin for.
Agree 100%.
Speaking of which, when are you closing your trade of 5,000%? LOL
Posted on 12/7/24 at 4:17 pm to I Love Bama
quote:Still a 12.5 month runway - closed one of the 9 left at 5600% shortly after you exited. Will start slowly exiting Q1-Q2 of 2025. I have a frickload of miner options and shares I'd like to exit before MSTR.
Speaking of which, when are you closing your trade of 5,000%? LOL
Posted on 12/7/24 at 4:31 pm to TigerTatorTots
I'm late to the trade, but TESLA is my next golden goose. After thinking about the combination of FSD licensing, their robots and AI, I think it can 10x from here in the next 5-7 years.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 4:39 pm to I Love Bama
I rolled a HEFTY amount of early 2024 miner profits into Tesla. It has grown to be my 2nd largest single stock holding behind MSTR. Most definitely a long term hold for me
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 12/8/24 at 12:54 am to I Love Bama
quote:
To put it in the most simplistic terms. If you came to me and said "ILB, I have the ability to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars at 0% and put it in an asset that has a CAGR of over 30% for the last 15 years. Do you want to go in with me on this?"
I would say, frick yeah I do. Other investors are saying the same thing.
Damn dude.Posted on 12/8/24 at 11:34 pm to Pendulum
if you are thinking of MSTR as a traditional stock....I'd agree.
MSTR is as far from a traditional stock is there is.
MSTR is as far from a traditional stock is there is.
Posted on 12/12/24 at 10:01 am to oneg8rh8r
Posted on 12/12/24 at 12:03 pm to oneg8rh8r
I personally don't care if it is or is not. The facts for me is this. I purchased MSTU (a 2x etf on MSTR) at $61. I sold that at 270.
I then went with MSTX, and I'm in at $65. I have sold these all the way up:
MSTX 12/06/2024 Call $120.00 STO 11/26/2024 11/27/2024 M $11.3000 1 $1,130.00
MSTX 12/13/2024 Call $125.00 STO 12/04/2024 12/05/2024 M $4.3000 1 $430.00
MSTX 12/20/2024 Call $125.00 STO 12/11/2024 12/12/2024 M $5.3000 1 $530.00
That's 2K in 3 weeks. Traditional , not traditional.... don;t care. I care about the bottom line no matter what.
I then went with MSTX, and I'm in at $65. I have sold these all the way up:
MSTX 12/06/2024 Call $120.00 STO 11/26/2024 11/27/2024 M $11.3000 1 $1,130.00
MSTX 12/13/2024 Call $125.00 STO 12/04/2024 12/05/2024 M $4.3000 1 $430.00
MSTX 12/20/2024 Call $125.00 STO 12/11/2024 12/12/2024 M $5.3000 1 $530.00
That's 2K in 3 weeks. Traditional , not traditional.... don;t care. I care about the bottom line no matter what.
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