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re: Anyone buying MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR)?
Posted on 1/30/25 at 1:50 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 1/30/25 at 1:50 pm to Big Scrub TX
Well, you would too if you saw that you were swapping out less valuable currency for what he believes will be the most valuable thing on the planet in a few years. I believe he sees his window to buy as much bitcoin as he can before other people jump in and the price goes way up.
1
Posted on 2/4/25 at 4:19 pm to LSUSLU106
Anyone have any thoughts on how the earnings will come out tomorrow, and will be received? Will it be early or after tomorrows close?
Didn't really do much today, so not sure what the feel is for it.
Didn't really do much today, so not sure what the feel is for it.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 11:31 am to HagaDaga
A lot of today will depend on if they include the FASB in the earnings.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 12:08 pm to LSUSLU106
quote:
FASB in the earnings
FASB? And how come?
I've been trying to read articles on it, and seems the EPS expectations ranges from -.09 to -.13. Difference obviously from last time which was actual +.50. though it apparently hangs on the CEO selling the BTC buying plan moving forward with this Admins positive position on BTC. Also, explanation on why their preferred stock sale fell short from $100 want to $80. Which I'm not understanding what that was.
Current bullish estimates still in the 550-650 range for this year. Though it obviously depends on BTC, so just trying to understand BTC mvmt thru MSTR.
I'm a newbie to all of this so trying to teach myself how to analyze it all better.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 12:10 pm to HagaDaga
Also I'm assuming the release call is at 5pmET. Couldn't really find it, but did find that that was the time it was done last year.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 12:10 pm to HagaDaga
quote:There's nothing to really understand. It's all speculation and greater fool theory.
Current bullish estimates still in the 550-650 range for this year. Though it obviously depends on BTC, so just trying to understand BTC mvmt thru MSTR.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 12:21 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
There's nothing to really understand. It's all speculation and greater fool theory.
i know i know, 
But thats why im trying to understand how to play it the best I can. BTC obviously isn't going away anytime soon, so learning how to play it, even if it's majority speculation. I want to learn the core solid basics that falls in the minority. Like what kind of economic/world/national/etc news makes it move up and down.
And then mix it into an actual company who is essentially setting itself up to being a wholesaler reserve. At this point BTC is MSTRs "widget," or will eventually get there.
Just trying to understand the strategy.
This post was edited on 2/5/25 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 2/5/25 at 1:25 pm to HagaDaga
quote:I just can't see any argument for not just buying a bitcoin ETF instead if it's bitcoin exposure you want.
But thats why im trying to understand how to play it the best I can. BTC obviously isn't going away anytime soon, so learning how to play it, even if it's majority speculation. I want to learn the core solid basics that falls in the minority. Like what kind of economic/world/national/etc news makes it move up and down.
And then mix it into an actual company who is essentially setting itself up to being a wholesaler reserve. At this point BTC is MSTRs "widget," or will eventually get there.
Just trying to understand the strategy.
As I've said before - the real play is in volatility, and there's very few people set up correctly and/or sophisticated enough to take advantage of this.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 1:33 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I just can't see any argument for not just buying a bitcoin ETF instead if it's bitcoin exposure you want.
I'm not looking for just exposure, but to learn how to become..
quote:
there's very few people set up correctly and/or sophisticated enough to take advantage of this.
May not happen, but it's fun trying.
As I've said before, this isnt "make a living" or "retirement" thing. It's purely just wanting to learn more about how to be better strategically about it.
This post was edited on 2/5/25 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 2/5/25 at 1:38 pm to HagaDaga
quote:You'd have to have the ability to trade options and bonds with a good margin situation. For retail, I find one or more of these aspects usually too punitive to set up.
As I've said before, this isnt "make a living" or "retirement" thing. It's purely just wanting to learn more about how to be better strategically about it.
IMO, the best trade is to get an allocation of converts when/if they come through. The implied vol is like 0 in a name where vol is actually 75-150. He basically gives premium away in exchange for people being willing to lend him money. Still, bitcoin would have to go to like 20K or something for the bonds to start taking a haircut.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 1:41 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
There's nothing to really understand. It's all speculation and greater fool theory.
Not everything about MSTR is BTC. Subscription Services Revenues were $27.8 million, a 32.5% increase year-over-year in Q3 etc etc.
Alot will be determined on the call. What he says.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 1:54 pm to Big Scrub TX
It's because MSTR generally rises 2 or 3 times Bitcoin.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 1:57 pm to Big Scrub TX
Well, history shows that bitcoin has a 4 year cycle based on the having event. Look at 2013, 2017 and 2021 where bitcoin made big moves. We are obviously in 2025. Add that to the popularity and the US talking reserve and you can see what some people expect to happen.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 2:48 pm to HagaDaga
quote:
Also I'm assuming the release call is at 5pmET. Couldn't really find it, but did find that that was the time it was done last year.
Looks like they'll post the results at 4:00EST and have the live call at 5:00EST
Strategy, aka MicroStrategy investor relations
Posted on 2/5/25 at 3:17 pm to Hitman67
quote:I'm not sure that's actually true.
It's because MSTR generally rises 2 or 3 times Bitcoin.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 3:28 pm to Big Scrub TX
Lol, all you have to do is pull up the stock and look at the 1 and 5 year returns.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 3:36 pm to Hitman67
quote:Nah. You'd need more than that.
Lol, all you have to do is pull up the stock and look at the 1 and 5 year returns.
Posted on 2/5/25 at 3:38 pm to Big Scrub TX
Well, tell you what. If it does next run, I will screenshot you a pic of my return 
Posted on 2/5/25 at 5:23 pm to Hitman67
quote:Can't wait.
Well, tell you what. If it does next run, I will screenshot you a pic of my return
Posted on 2/5/25 at 6:44 pm to Hitman67
quote:
Well, you would too if you saw that you were swapping out less valuable currency for what he believes will be the most valuable thing on the planet in a few years. I believe he sees his window to buy as much bitcoin as he can before other people jump in and the price goes way up.
What makes his plan any different than the Hunt Bros attempt to corner the silver market. in the 80’s. I’ll grant you he does have the absence of regulations as a tailwind, and apparently investor willingness to provide interest free money hoping he can drive up prices.
On the other hand, every other time someone has tried that approach has left nothing but disaster in their wake.
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