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Started By
Message
re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Posted on 3/5/22 at 10:09 am to LChama
Posted on 3/5/22 at 10:09 am to LChama
If it can get to $15 then I think $35 is top end now.
It’s finally pretty clear what’s going on.
I can’t see us not rallying on high volume Monday (unless WAR!).
ILJIN bought 200,000 shares for a reason.
It’s finally pretty clear what’s going on.
I can’t see us not rallying on high volume Monday (unless WAR!).
ILJIN bought 200,000 shares for a reason.
1
Posted on 3/5/22 at 10:47 am to bayoubengals88
Bigtime stupid question… who’s ILjin
Posted on 3/5/22 at 11:04 am to LChama
Repost from Investorshub for more info:
It's pretty clear that $35 is now top end for buyout.
Follow what Peter has done in the past. He sold Succompo near all time highs, and he'll sell AUPH near all time highs now that he has 900,000 additional options that he can exercise at 12.01
He never wanted share price to run to $30 on a leak (unless he was doing Neil a favor). Yes, Peter might have really wanted to sell for $50 last fall after the leak, but clearly BMY and others weren't willing to pay 6-7B. Peter wasn't going to sell for low premium (there might have been a low 40s offer, MAYBE..) so he took matters into his own hands.
1. Executed shelf offering
1a. Lied about not needing to use it, hit it hard.
2. Pumped "aggressive" guidance at Leerink (trapping retail btw).
2a. Delivered anything but aggressive guidance on 2/28.
Because of that, the stock is at $11 instead of $22,and of course he has made NO effort to defend share price.
Additionally, ILJIN has bought 200k shares for cheap, and everyone got options at 12.01. Pretty sweet deal...
So here we stand. AUPH will now be sold for roughly 100 to 200% premium based on stock price between $10 and $17, and now everyone will be happy to be done with this thing. Note the top end there is $34. See Succampo. Peter's execution is identical.
Whoever doesn't back up the truck on Monday morning, is either totally foolish or has a wife. I predict a frenzy on Monday with extremely volatile price action on high volume.
It's pretty clear that $35 is now top end for buyout.
Follow what Peter has done in the past. He sold Succompo near all time highs, and he'll sell AUPH near all time highs now that he has 900,000 additional options that he can exercise at 12.01
He never wanted share price to run to $30 on a leak (unless he was doing Neil a favor). Yes, Peter might have really wanted to sell for $50 last fall after the leak, but clearly BMY and others weren't willing to pay 6-7B. Peter wasn't going to sell for low premium (there might have been a low 40s offer, MAYBE..) so he took matters into his own hands.
1. Executed shelf offering
1a. Lied about not needing to use it, hit it hard.
2. Pumped "aggressive" guidance at Leerink (trapping retail btw).
2a. Delivered anything but aggressive guidance on 2/28.
Because of that, the stock is at $11 instead of $22,and of course he has made NO effort to defend share price.
Additionally, ILJIN has bought 200k shares for cheap, and everyone got options at 12.01. Pretty sweet deal...
So here we stand. AUPH will now be sold for roughly 100 to 200% premium based on stock price between $10 and $17, and now everyone will be happy to be done with this thing. Note the top end there is $34. See Succampo. Peter's execution is identical.
Whoever doesn't back up the truck on Monday morning, is either totally foolish or has a wife. I predict a frenzy on Monday with extremely volatile price action on high volume.
Posted on 3/5/22 at 11:05 am to LChama
quote:South Korean investor who got into a proxy war a couple of years ago. They used to own like 15% of the company and didn't like the direction we were headed. Can't blame them now...
Bigtime stupid question… who’s ILjin
Posted on 3/5/22 at 12:06 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Whoever doesn't back up the truck on Monday morning, is either totally foolish or has a wife. I predict a frenzy on Monday with extremely volatile price action on high volume
I have a very high cost basis of $22. So you’re suggesting to buy a chunk on Monday and then expecting it to rally quickly? Is that your suggestion?
Posted on 3/5/22 at 1:40 pm to supadave3
quote:I'm suggesting that any investor should feel comfortable buying at prices that are lower or near $12. Because the CEO just locked in 900,000 shares at that price.
I have a very high cost basis of $22. So you’re suggesting to buy a chunk on Monday and then expecting it to rally quickly? Is that your suggestion?
And he knows he'll be profiting from that level because he likely orchestrated his ability to get options at $12 and he will likely sell the company soon around $30.
Ultimately you've got to make your own decisions, but averaging down here appears to be a great strategy. My cost basis is around $11.
Posted on 3/5/22 at 2:40 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Ultimately you've got to make your own decisions, but averaging down here appears to be a great strateg
That’s fair. I’ll be purchasing when the markets open on Monday.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:00 am to supadave3
Right on cue, Seeking Alpha out with the "Everything is actually great!" article this morning
ETA: Even adds a $75 price target
ETA: Even adds a $75 price target
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 8:23 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:38 am to bayoubengals88
Cost basis is 11.52. I'll just ride or die with my paltry 250+ shares.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:41 am to SocraticTiger
Same.. any time seems like an obvious slam dunk move with this company, it ends up blowing up in my hand Wile E Coyote style
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:54 am to jmcwhrter
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:09 am to bayoubengals88
I said F it and bought 50 more contracts at $15 for Jan 23
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:09 am to bayoubengals88
Great. Shareholder revolt. What have you guys got me involved with The pharmaceutical mafia?
The pharmaceutical mafia? 
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:10 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
Seeking Alpha out with the "Everything is actually great!" article this morning
Is it a contributor article? If so I usually completely dismiss those, as anyone can submit them and they're usually pumper bullshite. I see them for AMC all the time.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:56 am to jmcwhrter
I take the article as an excuse to trade almost 3 million shares before 11am.
PG: “Hey guys, let’s get an article out there to get some volume traded for our tute friends. Need to get that price to $16 be end of week for BMY’s $35 buyout”.
PG: “Hey guys, let’s get an article out there to get some volume traded for our tute friends. Need to get that price to $16 be end of week for BMY’s $35 buyout”.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 11:15 am to Chucktown_Badger
I'm sure it is.. just funny to watch the switch flip and narrative do a complete 180 since Friday when options were awarded
"This ship is sinking!........ right into slingshot position for eventual moon launch!!!11!"
"This ship is sinking!........ right into slingshot position for eventual moon launch!!!11!"
Posted on 3/7/22 at 12:46 pm to Saint5446
quote:
2/18/22
quote:
Have a good friend who moved his entire retirement into this.
How's this baw feeling these days?
Posted on 3/7/22 at 1:40 pm to jmcwhrter
quote:
I'm sure it is.. just funny to watch the switch flip and narrative do a complete 180 since Friday when options were awarded
"This ship is sinking!........ right into slingshot position for eventual moon launch!!!11
The reporting and investment media are almost all the fruit of a poisoned tree.
You can't believe anyone at their word. They are generally spinning reality for personal financial reasons
Posted on 3/7/22 at 2:12 pm to molsusports
quote:
the fruit of a poisoned tree.
Really wish I knew what this was because I had a law degree.... not because of Ted Kaczynski
Posted on 3/7/22 at 5:44 pm to Chucktown_Badger
Have a good friend who moved his entire retirement into this.
How's this baw feeling these days?
He’s still very confident with high conviction. So much so that I took some at $10.90 today haha
How's this baw feeling these days?
He’s still very confident with high conviction. So much so that I took some at $10.90 today haha
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