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Started By
Message
re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Posted on 1/22/21 at 9:30 pm to castorinho
Posted on 1/22/21 at 9:30 pm to castorinho
What does this do to the price on MOnday?
3
Posted on 1/22/21 at 9:53 pm to TigerTatorTots
Can someone explain how a buyout affects price? Never really been a part of a stock that got bought out.
Posted on 1/22/21 at 9:54 pm to TigerTatorTots
It will jump but then it will sell off. This was expected and price was somewhat baked in.
Posted on 1/22/21 at 10:03 pm to GAFF
quote:A mega cap pharmaceutical company will pay a premium to buy the small company.
Can someone explain how a buyout affects price? Never really been a part of a stock that got bought out.
They will pay more due to the future value of the drug.
AUPH is worth 1.8 billion at $15/share.
A big company might pay 5.4 billion for AUPH and shareholders get $45/share.
Posted on 1/22/21 at 10:52 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
think he’s referring to not allowing it to be traded AH at all. The halt was long enough so that it can’t be traded until Monday.
The company can decide to halt trading on their stock?
Posted on 1/22/21 at 10:55 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
big company might pay 5.4 billion for AUPH and shareholders get $45/share.
How did you arrive at this number? Does aurinia even have a pipeline to buy?
ETA: I just checked. No pipeline. So even if the stock goes to 20, why would big pharma pay a 125% pps premium on a buyout? Way more than needed and i don't see a situation where this drug becomes a blockbuster
This post was edited on 1/22/21 at 11:01 pm
Posted on 1/22/21 at 11:44 pm to Chucktown_Badger
I am curious. I have noticed you make several comments in the last two pages which all seem to find different faults with a higher AUPH valuation.
Are you unconvinced by the approval or valuation of Benlysta?
The Aurinia company seems to be very well positioned (because of cash on hand, drug available, apparently superior LN response, and a pretty reasonable ability to market and distribute) to demand a good buyout price from one of several big pharmaceutical companies. If annual expected revenue projections are even close to accurate $45 per share would be easy to justify and significantly higher is possible.
Are you unconvinced by the approval or valuation of Benlysta?
The Aurinia company seems to be very well positioned (because of cash on hand, drug available, apparently superior LN response, and a pretty reasonable ability to market and distribute) to demand a good buyout price from one of several big pharmaceutical companies. If annual expected revenue projections are even close to accurate $45 per share would be easy to justify and significantly higher is possible.
Posted on 1/22/21 at 11:52 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
What does this do to the price on MOnday?
Well, I thought for a long time about buying it today, but didn’t. It’ll probably run up to $30/share.
Posted on 1/22/21 at 11:52 pm to molsusports
quote:
molsusports
I admittedly know way less than many on this board, I'm just curious about what would justify some of the pps buyout estimations. I own some as of today so I'm a cheerleader, just looking for the confidence in a big jump.
Posted on 1/23/21 at 12:16 am to Chucktown_Badger
As you already pointed out they don't have a pipeline of other drugs so it would predominantly be based on the revenue from LN. I will also obviously admit I have no idea what ends up happening over the next few months.
But I guess the best guide for possible buyout would be the value of their assets plus some multiple of the expected annual profit treating LN (obviously the number of potential buyers alters the sale price as well).
The market doesn't have to be rational (see the present MYOV valuation) but the price Human Genome and Benlysta were sold for (3 billion at depressed value for an inferior drug in 2012) make me think somewhere between $40 and $60 per share is likely.
But I guess the best guide for possible buyout would be the value of their assets plus some multiple of the expected annual profit treating LN (obviously the number of potential buyers alters the sale price as well).
The market doesn't have to be rational (see the present MYOV valuation) but the price Human Genome and Benlysta were sold for (3 billion at depressed value for an inferior drug in 2012) make me think somewhere between $40 and $60 per share is likely.
Posted on 1/23/21 at 6:14 am to molsusports
Does this drug have crossover potential into the realm of heart transplant patients as an alternative to cyclosporin?
Posted on 1/23/21 at 6:19 am to Chucktown_Badger
Outside of the drug having better results than benlysta, the best argument for why LUPKYNIS is a better treatment is it’s a pill over IV therapy. Meaning the patient, in the eyes of insurance, only has to go to the pharmacy to get drugs vs go to an infusion suite and receive the therapy. Infusion is a very expensive form of treatment due to the overhead and a MD has to be there to sign off on all scripts. That adds up fast and is 7-8 billing items as compared to a dr visit and a script.
Posted on 1/23/21 at 6:51 am to Chucktown_Badger
It will be doc for LN. from my reading, annual cost of treatment will be tens of thousands of dollars.
Posted on 1/23/21 at 7:20 am to Rendevoustavern
Since this is USA, I expect most doctors will try to treat patients with Benlysta because its a big pharma drug.. and when that inevitably doesn't work, they'll say "well.. theres this pill....."
Posted on 1/23/21 at 7:53 am to jmcwhrter
Posted on 1/23/21 at 7:54 am to Chucktown_Badger
quote:Define blockbuster if you would.
and i don't see a situation where this drug becomes a blockbuster
Posted on 1/23/21 at 8:19 am to bayoubengals88
I assume the halt is lifted and trading will resume Monday PM? Or will it be halted until after the press conference?
Posted on 1/23/21 at 8:25 am to Chucktown_Badger
Bro do you have anything positive to say? This drug will immediately benefit tens of thousands of patients stateside and worldwide that suffer from this miserable disease and you’re more concerned about the investment you made yesterday and spewing bullshite about how this won’t be a blockbuster.
The frick do you know about pharmaceuticals? I have a 1.2cf fridge in my office that has about 14 vials. They cost about $6m in total. One of those vials won’t be needed anymore because of this PILL.
GTFO.
The frick do you know about pharmaceuticals? I have a 1.2cf fridge in my office that has about 14 vials. They cost about $6m in total. One of those vials won’t be needed anymore because of this PILL.
GTFO.
Posted on 1/23/21 at 8:31 am to GAFF
I assume trading will resume post call, but it’s just a guess.
Posted on 1/23/21 at 8:38 am to bayoubengals88
There are just some miserable people in this world, this thread has been nothing but positive and someone new comes in and starts farting and stinking the place up.
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