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Is the VIX telling us the bottom is about to fall out?
Posted on 7/11/22 at 9:42 am
Posted on 7/11/22 at 9:42 am
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) signals the level of fear or stress in the stock market—using the S&P 500 index as a proxy for the broad market—and hence is widely known as the “Fear Index.” The higher the VIX, the greater the level of fear and uncertainty in the market, with levels above 30 indicating tremendous uncertainty.
The VIX hasn’t been climbing up like this since right before the ‘08 crash.
The VIX hasn’t been climbing up like this since right before the ‘08 crash.
8
Posted on 7/11/22 at 9:50 am to Jon Ham
It’s got to bottom sometime.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 9:53 am to Jon Ham
Last week it dropped significantly. It will be interesting to see how it reacts during earnings season.
Not that my opinion has any weight, but I feel like next quarter will be worse for the big names (AAPL, AMZN, XOM) than where we are right now. The lag of consumer spending hasn’t had it’s impact on those names yet. Summer is over, inflation is holding strong, cost to borrow has held a higher rate, etc.
Not that my opinion has any weight, but I feel like next quarter will be worse for the big names (AAPL, AMZN, XOM) than where we are right now. The lag of consumer spending hasn’t had it’s impact on those names yet. Summer is over, inflation is holding strong, cost to borrow has held a higher rate, etc.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 10:17 am to Jon Ham
Volatility has been fascinating since the corporate debt crisis in March 2020. It's telling me that everybody is hedged. Intraday volatility has been absurd for a while (signs theirs pockets of air at most price levels aka no liquidity). Basically what would need to happen is that everybody monetizes their hedges, stop hedging because it's too expensive and then have an insolvency risk spike where there's a panic for insurance and cash. All of which are in the realm of probablity currently. Especially knowing the fiscal arm will not step in until next year.
OP: FYI, VIX is IV of M1 and M2 SPY ATM calls and puts. Not DJI.
OP: FYI, VIX is IV of M1 and M2 SPY ATM calls and puts. Not DJI.
This post was edited on 7/11/22 at 10:18 am
Posted on 7/11/22 at 11:44 am to Jon Ham
This VIX chart shows even better how similar today’s VIX trend is to 2008.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 11:54 am to Jon Ham
Pete Najarian has said he has seen more VIX call buying for July, Aug., Sept. and Oct. than he has seen since 2008.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 3:19 pm to Hussss
Go check out last weeks Simplify Asset Management “On the Road” podcasts. Harley Bassman and Mike Green talk vol with Chris Cole, Ben Eiffert, Kris Sidial. It’s some of the best volatility content I’ve ever heard in a really long time.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 5:56 pm to Jon Ham
Buying some $30 Vix calls tomorrow. CPI gonna come in hotter than your sisters arse.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 8:07 am to Jon Ham
Todays future backs it up the vix smoke signals
This post was edited on 7/12/22 at 8:08 am
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:25 am to Jon Ham
In my opinion, energy/commodities finally rolling over I think we are getting closer to a bottom. We may not come back anytime soon, but the initial hard drive down needed to include every sector and that has been the hold out. I think the economy is about to slow, so valuations will need to be readjusted significantly before the final bottom, but we are closer now than in May when many thought we were done going down hard with peak inflation (which proved very wrong on both fronts).
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:54 am to wutangfinancial
quote:listened to this on my way home last night. Very interesting
Go check out last weeks Simplify Asset Management “On the Road” podcasts. Harley Bassman and Mike Green talk vol with Chris Cole, Ben Eiffert, Kris Sidial. It’s some of the best volatility content I’ve ever heard in a really long time
Posted on 7/12/22 at 2:41 pm to castorinho
BOOM goes the VIX leading into tomorrow's CPI print
could get interesting the next couple weeks even though it is summertime trading
could get interesting the next couple weeks even though it is summertime trading
Posted on 7/12/22 at 4:18 pm to Jon Ham
Yes
It’s going to 0
Panic yer arse off. Sell sell sell
It’s going to 0
Panic yer arse off. Sell sell sell
Posted on 7/12/22 at 4:20 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
This VIX chart shows even better how similar today’s VIX trend is to 2008.
Not really, but sure whatever you say.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:33 am to whodatigahbait
Inflation at 9.1% 
From yahoo finance
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' June Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflected a year-over-year increase of 9.1% last month, up from the prior 40-year high of 8.6% in May. Consensus economists were expecting June's reading to show an 8.8% increase, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
From yahoo finance
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' June Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflected a year-over-year increase of 9.1% last month, up from the prior 40-year high of 8.6% in May. Consensus economists were expecting June's reading to show an 8.8% increase, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
This post was edited on 7/13/22 at 7:34 am
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