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Why are there multiple articles regarding an impending crash of the markets?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 1:11 pm
Forbes
Business Insider
Many others listed in today's trending topics on Google. Is it due to uncertainty in Israel/Hamas situation? Is it the expectation of the risk being way too big for the investment? Not enough people investing?
I am in no way a money person and literally not educated other than Micro Macro classes that I was forced to take in undergrad long ago. Please explain like I am an imbecile. No I did not read the articles, as TD usually can explain it better than anywhere else.
Business Insider
Many others listed in today's trending topics on Google. Is it due to uncertainty in Israel/Hamas situation? Is it the expectation of the risk being way too big for the investment? Not enough people investing?
I am in no way a money person and literally not educated other than Micro Macro classes that I was forced to take in undergrad long ago. Please explain like I am an imbecile. No I did not read the articles, as TD usually can explain it better than anywhere else.
9
Posted on 10/23/23 at 1:28 pm to sms151t
Federal govt response to 2008 was to print money for 15 years and keep interest rates artificially low. Time to pay the piper.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:02 pm to sms151t
Typical click bait type of shite.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:27 pm to sms151t
Maybe because of this? LINK
quote:
Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements
Abstract
As a matter of arithmetic, the trends of US government debt and deficits will eventually result in an outrageously high government debt-to-GDP ratio. But when exactly will the United States hit the constraint of infeasibility and how exactly will policy adjust to it? This article considers fiscal dominance, which is the possibility that accumulating government debt and deficits can produce increases in inflation that "dominate" central bank intentions to keep inflation low. Is it a serious possibility for the United States in the near future? And how might various policies change (especially those related to the banking system) if fiscal dominance became a reality?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:32 pm to sms151t
Any given week you can find articles like this.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:44 pm to sms151t
I suspect it’s because nearly every country in the entire world is struggling financially and economically …… credit restrictions worldwide …..
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:54 pm to sms151t
There are bizzillions of articles about the future negative outlooks, many from reputable organizations, but NONE ever lay out conservative reasonable & actionable things for the average investor.
Other than the “buy gold” crowd and the “booze, bullets, & hard assets” proponents, what are interim or other steps a cynical conservative investor can do?
I do think rough times are ahead, but is my only option to drop off the earth and wait for the SHTF?
Thoughts?
Other than the “buy gold” crowd and the “booze, bullets, & hard assets” proponents, what are interim or other steps a cynical conservative investor can do?
I do think rough times are ahead, but is my only option to drop off the earth and wait for the SHTF?
Thoughts?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:12 pm to Klondikekajun
quote:Writing doom and gloom is very easy to do, because there's always some plausibility behind it. However, these people rarely - if ever - are held responsible for their decades of bad market calls.
There are bizzillions of articles about the future negative outlooks, many from reputable organizations, but NONE ever lay out conservative reasonable & actionable things for the average investor.
Other than the “buy gold” crowd and the “booze, bullets, & hard assets” proponents, what are interim or other steps a cynical conservative investor can do?
I do think rough times are ahead, but is my only option to drop off the earth and wait for the SHTF?
Thoughts?
The fact is, the market "climbs a wall of worry". We could go back to any calendar year in the past 100 years and pull headlines and they would be scary and make you not want to be in the markets.
Personally, a 15-20% retracement in equity prices is certainly possible. Is that a "crash"? I don't think so.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:17 pm to sms151t
The market follows a consistent expansion/contraction cycle. A lot of charts make the run from 2016-2020 a bubble that was due to deflate a little as part of that cycle, then the government went absolutely wild through coronavirus and the bubble hyper expanded.
There are so many factors that hint disaster looming, but somehow things are able to stay relatively stable. There is a big market for doom & gloom predictions though, and all these guys want clicks. I wouldn't be surprised if those same publications put out market pumping articles tomorrow.
There are so many factors that hint disaster looming, but somehow things are able to stay relatively stable. There is a big market for doom & gloom predictions though, and all these guys want clicks. I wouldn't be surprised if those same publications put out market pumping articles tomorrow.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:01 pm to Thundercles
Also you have to realize that these “esperts” “analysts” and “managers” probably have a vested interest in whatever they are saying either becoming true, or at least having a large number of the public believing it will come true.
Look at Ackman who will sound alarm bells and call for everyone to run for the exits while he fails to disclose that he would profit immensely from a scare running through retail.
Look at Ackman who will sound alarm bells and call for everyone to run for the exits while he fails to disclose that he would profit immensely from a scare running through retail.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:44 pm to sms151t
Because fear sells 100% of the time. And it doesn't require much intelligence or research to point out one or two indicators of a looming market downturn.
And the best part, nobody ever calls them out when their negative predictions don't come to fruition.
I bet the majority of MT posters could be a stock market blogger with very little difficulty.
And the best part, nobody ever calls them out when their negative predictions don't come to fruition.
I bet the majority of MT posters could be a stock market blogger with very little difficulty.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 10:19 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
And the best part, nobody ever calls them out when their negative predictions don't come to fruition.
Hell I guarantee there will be multiple people on MT and OT who will gloat immensely when/if the market takes a big shite (-20%+), even though they have been banging that drum for going on 3 years now.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 6:25 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
even though they have been banging that drum for going on 3 years now.
What could have happened 3 years ago to create that belief?
Posted on 10/24/23 at 7:20 am to sms151t
Probably because rates are up 500 bips w/ debt/gdp @ 124%, after issuing nothing bills all summer Janet has to start printing duration, the reverse repo support ballast is being drained at an accelerated pace, the 10 yr tagged 5% a couple nights ago, the yen carry trade is dangerously close to unwinding as the BoJ toys with exiting yield curve control and there are 5 B10/Pac12 teams in the top 10.
In addition to that flock of black swans war with Iran looks imminent and any additional surge in oil will finish off whats left of the US sovereign debt market.
In addition to that flock of black swans war with Iran looks imminent and any additional surge in oil will finish off whats left of the US sovereign debt market.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 8:43 am to Bard
quote:
What could have happened 3 years ago to create that belief?
I should have clarified that y'all have been banging the drum for 3 years that recession/doom was imminent.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 8:45 am to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
Because fear sells 100% of the time. And it doesn't require much intelligence or research to point out one or two indicators of a looming market downturn.
And the best part, nobody ever calls them out when their negative predictions don't come to fruition.
I bet the majority of MT posters could be a stock market blogger with very little difficulty.
Yep. hot takes are what drive clicks and eyeballs.
Nobody reads the article "expect more of the same the next 6 months"
Posted on 10/24/23 at 9:26 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I should have clarified that y'all have been banging the drum for 3 years that recession/doom was imminent.
It all depends how you define “recession “ ….
“It’s transitory,” right ?
This post was edited on 10/24/23 at 9:38 am
Posted on 10/24/23 at 9:38 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I should have clarified that y'all have been banging the drum for 3 years that recession/doom was imminent.
I've admitted many times (and will continue to do so) that I severely underestimated the desire of the American consumer to deny reality by trying to ignore inflation through maintaining their lifestyles on the backs of their credit cards. Their doing so hasn't caused us to avoid economic troubles, it's only delayed it and likely caused it to be worse when the bubble finally pops.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 1:35 pm to Bard
quote:Meh. How about you make some positive predictions? Which assets will go down by which amount and in what period of time?
I've admitted many times (and will continue to do so) that I severely underestimated the desire of the American consumer to deny reality by trying to ignore inflation through maintaining their lifestyles on the backs of their credit cards. Their doing so hasn't caused us to avoid economic troubles, it's only delayed it and likely caused it to be worse when the bubble finally pops.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 3:32 pm to cadillacattack
quote:it's just a recession, right?
It all depends how you define “recession “ ….
“It’s transitory,” right ?
not a 'silent depression'?
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