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Posted on 5/1/12 at 11:56 am to RLDSC FAN
quote:
correct but we will never get down to 55 like some hope will happen. for example this year we only have 13 seniors and obviously some players like Woods will go pro and others may transfer. However we have 18 slots to give away this year to get back up to 75 again next year.
so what are the penalties? it seems like everyone is saying usc is somehow getting around signing less people. what gives
Posted on 5/1/12 at 11:59 am to VABuckeye
quote:
However, if you have 18 slots to give away this year you can only fill 15 of them. Early enrollees will now count against last (this) years 15 scholarship limit.
we only took 12 spots for the 2012 class. 3 of the 15 players that signed LOI were early enrollees that counted towards the 2011 class.
quote:
Just hope you don't get the injury bug
same to you guys
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:04 pm to H-Town Tiger
i guess you're (h-town tiger) not coming back?
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:19 pm to Mr. Hangover
It's only been a little over an hour since his last post. I imagine at least somebody has got something better to do today than stroll around this site. 
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:21 pm to King Joey
quote:
It's only been a little over an hour since his last post. I imagine at least somebody has got something better to do today than stroll around this site.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:30 pm to King Joey
quote:
No, I don't, and we also won that game going away. Defensive stats in a win that isn't particularly close down the stretch are not as reliable as indicators as defensive stats in a game that is tightly contested until the end (like the 3 OT game).
USC beat Arizona and the 3 OT game was against a top 5 team that had 5 1-2 round draft picks including the #1 overall.
quote:
If their performance this year is even remotely similar to their performance last year, there is very little chance of them being #1
Well, that's complete nonsense and irrelevant anyway. However, what makes you think that because they had a couple of games early where their D was gashed that they can't win those games this year?
quote:
. Let me ask you this: do you think a 1-loss SC would be #1 ahead of a 1-loss LSU, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State
Albama and LSU no, the restof the SEC maybe, the Big 12 teams probably, the B1G teams without question. However, it depends on who that loss was to and when they lose as well as to who and when the other lose. It doesn't matter who is #1 as long as you are in the top 2.
quote:
No, I'm not. I'm challenging a view point that has dismissed and/or ignored their performance in 4 games (at least).
No, you are the one doing the dismissing and only looking at 4 games and ignoring the other 8 or so. You are also doing so by being dishonest
quote:
Okay, I disagree bigtime there. Ask Boise State, or SC themselves how big that jump from #6 to #1-2 is for a team that doesn't have the benefit of an SEC schedule
Now we are talking about different things. I'm saying a team that finished like USC did, has key guys coming back going from #6 one year to #1 in the preseasoon is not really a reach. In fact its fairly common that the preseason #1 was among the top 10 the year before.
Now I agree the margin of error for USC is much less than for LSU or Bama. But I don't think that should be a factor in preseason rankings. LSU would probably be #1 if we had an expirienced QB coming back. As it is, it doesn't matter. If we win out, we will be in Miami.
quote:
That lack of margin for error to finish #1 is an enormous difference from going 10-2 and finishing around the top 5.
This literally makes no sense. The lack of margin of error means USC can't afford to stub their toe, it has no bearing on how they will or could finish. Going 10-2 in 2011 does not mean they can't go 13-0 in 2013. You are not using the past a a guide, you are treating it as a given proof.
quote:
No, and we're not talking about ranking SC "high". We're talking about ranking SC #1
you are attaching too much meaning to the preseaon ranking. Its a projection, not a given.
quote:
And yes, those losses and the way they happened were a very valid reason for predicting Alabama would not finish #1. And but for a literally unprecedented fluke of BCS mathematics, that prediction would have been correct.
so who should have been preseason 2011 #1 coming off 2010? Auburn after losing Cam and Fairley? TCU after losing Dalton? Those are the only teams that finished 2010 unbeaten. Oregon perhaps. Other than that who didn't have multiple loses and or bad loses or didn;t lose guys to the NFL? Some one has to start #1.
quote:
What part was I missing? SC does return most of their guys who got beat by Arizona State and Stanford and gave up 41 points to Arizona.
A brain apparently, or at least any semblence of intellecual honesty. Yes, they gave up 41 to Arizona, they still won they also beat UCLA 50-0. Which is the true team? The one that lost to ASU or the one that beat top 5 Oregon on the road?
quote:
Because it's expecting them to step up from losing a couple of games and have a couple of more shaky performances over the course of the season to being perfect week in and week out
Not its not, being #1 is not some universal truth, its just a ranking for that year. Most times that win the NC have a shaky game or 2, they just come out on top. Like USC did against Arizona last year. Remember Bama vs a bad Tenn team in 2009? They weren't perfect in that game and arguably should have lost, but they didn't. USC doesn't have to perfect from week to week, they just have to win every game most likely.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:32 pm to King Joey
quote:
That seems quite a stretch, equating an 8-5 team with not one but two 11-2 teams that both finished in the top 10.
wow, you are way to hung up on using the past. You seem to think that every year is like the one before? frick, did USCe go from 8-5 in 2010 to 11-2 in 2011? I'm making a projection based on what I think will happen in 2012, not what did happen in 2011.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:34 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
will take a 3 month ban bet with you that notre dame will NOT finish better than 2 games over .500.. and if i win, you take a 3 month ban
I'm not doing a ban bet, but if you want to do a winner picks the losers Avatar for a week or month or whatver, I'll take that bet, Notre Dame does better than 7-5.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:39 pm to H-Town Tiger
why not a ban bet? you've defended ND until you were blue in the face.. so why not stand behind it if you think you're so right?
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:40 pm to King Joey
quote:
THAT'S a top-heavy conference. The SEC was far deeper AND far better at the top. That's not a narrow margin.
Don't disagree with any of that, but the marginal difference is between teams, since conferences don't play games
Florida was 6-6 last year, they lost to LSU, Bama, UGA, USCe, Auburn and Omaha's 2nd favorite whipping boy, Florida State. There is no reason to think they would have done better than 8-4 at best playing in the Pac 12. There's no way they beat Oregon or Stanford and depending on when they played, USC.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:50 pm to King Joey
quote:
Assuming Stanford will be an elite contender again without Luck or Harbaugh
I agree, though I've noticed they continue to recruit wel, so going forward, they may remain a decent program, but I do not expect them to be top 5 in 2012, like the last 2 years.
quote:
I don't see how you figure this. SC had a worse record vs. an easier schedule than either South Carolina or Arkansas. It seems like they would need a suprising leap forward in quality (and a significantly larger one than either of them makes) to overtake both of them.
Because I think USC has better talent. USC and Arky played 2 top 5 teams, USC was 1-1 with a 3OT loss, Arky lost each by 24. While USC had a stinker against ASU and gave up a bunch vs Az, Arky gave up a shite ton of yds and points to a 6-6 Big 12 team, beat 2-10 OM by 5 and Vandy by 3.
So Car did not play anyone as good as Stanford or Oregon. They did beat UGA a week after Boise beat UGA, They only beat Navy by 3 at home and struggled with MSU and lost to Auburn and got smoked by Arky. So Car schedule is exhibit A to what I mean by marginal differences. The play in the SEC, but didn't play LSU or Bama.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:52 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
why not a ban bet?
because I think ban bets are silly. Avatar bets serve the purpose better.
quote:
you've defended ND until you were blue in the face
really I'm defending logic more than ND. I'm with PJ, I love when they go 7-6, but I also call it like I see it and I think they are a top 15 type team 9-3, maybe 8-4 I haven't really looked at their schedule.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:53 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
Florida was 6-6 last year, they lost to LSU, Bama, UGA, USCe, Auburn and Omaha's 2nd favorite whipping boy, Florida State
There's absolutely no reason for Florida to be in the top 25 over Auburn at this time. I don't see why Auburn isn't AT LEAST in the top 25. We finished 8-5, return almost every starter, dominated Virginia in the Chick-Fil-A bowl, etc...
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:54 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:No, I'm not. The other 8 games are the reason I'm not questioning putting SC in the top 10 or even top 5. The reason I'm pointing out those 4 games is that the are strong evidence of a team that is not consistently dominant. And with the schedule they have this year, I believe it's unlikely they can slip up and still end up #1.
No, you are the one doing the dismissing and only looking at 4 games and ignoring the other 8 or so
quote:To finish #1, I believe SC will have to not only finish strong, but start strong as well. They have not shown that ability, and have shown themselves to be vulnerable several times throughout a season. Their defense was suspect (relative to #1-caliber teams) throughout the season and likely indications point to it being vulnerable again.
Now we are talking about different things. I'm saying a team that finished like USC did, has key guys coming back going from #6 one year to #1 in the preseasoon is not really a reach.
quote:Then I guess we're talking about two different kinds of rankings. I'm looking at this preseason ranking as a prediction of how the season will turn out.
Now I agree the margin of error for USC is much less than for LSU or Bama. But I don't think that should be a factor in preseason rankings
quote:Yes, it does, when combined with the likelihood that they will stub their toe. It's not a certainty, but it is (imo) very likely. And if they do, then their chances of finishing #1 drop to nearly zero.
The lack of margin of error means USC can't afford to stub their toe, it has no bearing on how they will or could finish
quote:Probably Oregon, considering the credibility they had with their Championship Game performance and what they had returning, plus the schedule they were facing. The matchup with us was a huge question mark, but the rest of the slate lined up nicely to afford them a championship opportunity even if they slipped up just once (especially considering how likely it seemed that we would be losing at least two games). Ohio State might also have been a credible pick before Tat-gate exploded.
so who should have been preseason 2011 #1 coming off 2010?
quote:Why do you insist on ignoring one or the other? The true team is more likely both. The same team can beat a good team and lose badly to a bad team.
Which is the true team? The one that lost to ASU or the one that beat top 5 Oregon on the road?
quote:Okay, fine. So they have to go from losing twice and coming very close to losing twice more, to not losing at all. That's a big jump up.
USC doesn't have to perfect from week to week, they just have to win every game most likely.
quote:I'm not attaching any meaning to it at all. In fact, I'm suggesting that no one should attach any meaning to it at all, because it is nothing other than a badly flawed prediction (specifically, in predicting SC as #1).
you are attaching too much meaning to the preseaon ranking. Its a projection, not a given
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:54 pm to rocket31
quote:
and don't say ND is good, because they're not
I really don't know how we'll be this year. It's so hard to predict, partially because of the schedule, but partially because of the roster. ND is at worst very good on the OL, if not great, and very good on the DL, if not great (even with Lynch's departure). Those are two pretty good units to have as your strengths.
RB seems strong, as does LB (though a few question marks there). The TE is arguably the best in the country. The real issues seem to be DBs, WRs, and QBs. Luckily, I do think there is talent at all those positions, it's just a matter of people turning that talent into becoming good football players.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 12:59 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
I think they are a top 15 type team 9-3, maybe 8-4 I haven't really looked at their schedule
09/01/12 vs. Navy Dublin, Ireland 9:00 a.m. ET
09/08/12 vs. Purdue Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
09/15/12 at Michigan State East Lansing, Mich. 8:00 p.m. ET
09/22/12 vs. Michigan Notre Dame, Ind. 7:30 p.m. ET
10/06/12 vs. Miami Chicago, Ill. 7:30 p.m. ET
10/13/12 vs. Stanford Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
10/20/12 vs. BYU Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
10/27/12 at Oklahoma Norman, Okla. TBA
11/03/12 vs. Pittsburgh Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
11/10/12 at Boston College Chestnut Hill, Mass. TBA
11/17/12 vs. Wake Forest Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
11/24/12 at USC Los Angeles, Calif. TBA
i'm not doing a gay arse avater bet... put your posting privelidges on the line
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:01 pm to King Joey
quote:
Btw, is this still about whether SC at #1 is a credible prediction? I'm cool with the discussion evolving to something else
Its about both, I don't see how its not a credible prediction to have USC #1. I suspect even if they go 13-0 if they play LSU or Bama, USC will not be favored. Being #1 or #4 really doesn't matter for them and Oregon, who ever beats the other in the regular season should host the loser in the Pac 12 title game. If they win every other game, the winner of that should be in Miami.
quote:
being better than all but 2 teams in the SEC is a far cry from landing at #1 in the nation.
not when those 2 were the top 2 teams in the nation. but that was a different point. besides its exteremly unlikely that 2 teams from the same conference will likely not be in the BCS CG again.
Anywhoo, if not #1, where do you think its fair to rank USC? What would your top 4 or 5 be? I don't see any rational way to rank them lower than #4 behind anyone but LSU, Alabama and Oregon. Seeing as LSU and Alabama play and they play Oregon, it really doesn't matter, they have just as good a s hot at making it to Miami if they start #4 as #1.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:05 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
'm not doing a gay arse avater bet... put your posting privelidges on the line
then I guess we don't have a bet. I don't care enough to have you banned and I don't want to be banned if I'm wrong, so we are an impass.
Looking at the schedule, I see 2 sure fire loses (OU and USC) rest of that schedule is pretty manageable, they could doink 2 others and go 8-4 at worst and could even go 10-2.
If Vegas has ND wins total at 7.5 I would pounce on it.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:05 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
09/01/12 vs. Navy Dublin, Ireland 9:00 a.m. ET
09/08/12 vs. Purdue Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
09/15/12 at Michigan State East Lansing, Mich. 8:00 p.m. ET
09/22/12 vs. Michigan Notre Dame, Ind. 7:30 p.m. ET
10/06/12 vs. Miami Chicago, Ill. 7:30 p.m. ET
10/13/12 vs. Stanford Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
10/20/12 vs. BYU Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
10/27/12 at Oklahoma Norman, Okla. TBA
11/03/12 vs. Pittsburgh Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
11/10/12 at Boston College Chestnut Hill, Mass. TBA
11/17/12 vs. Wake Forest Notre Dame, Ind. 3:30 p.m. ET
11/24/12 at USC Los Angeles, Calif. TBA
That could be the most brutal schedules I have EVER seen 6-6 with that schedule is 10 wins with any other schedule
This post was edited on 5/1/12 at 1:07 pm
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