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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:46 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:46 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
don't feel like posting them here too
WAT...you can't be our resident copy & paster if you just decide at times to be lazy.
1
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:48 am to LSUzealot
quote:
WAT...you can't be our resident copy & paster if you just decide at times to be lazy.
when 3 different models come out at the same time it's a lot.. but I don't wanna post that many images here anyways, its a lot of space and it's easier just to say what it does.Posted on 8/23/14 at 6:13 am to GEAUXmedic
I went to Swampgas to read their take on how this might affect the UF opener, and there was nary a thread, on the football board or the off topic board. I guess when you've lived through a life changing event like Louisianans have, you pay more attention.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 6:15 am to Jim Rockford
Fl local mets haven't said much about it so they're probably not worried much.. if the 12z GFS shows a florida hit too they'll pay attention.
Also.. Happy Birthday Hurricane Katrina
Also.. Happy Birthday Hurricane Katrina
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 6:22 am
Posted on 8/23/14 at 6:48 am to GEAUXmedic
Looks like the center is breaking up over land this morning.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 6:48 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Looks like the center is breaking up over land this morning.
Never had a real center, land sure as hell didn't help that.. hopefully it can still make that turn north, but it'll be interesting to see where it generates.
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 6:49 am
Posted on 8/23/14 at 7:01 am to GEAUXmedic
Back when TWC actually was a weather channel. Cheryl Lemke was a cutie patootie.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 7:04 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Back when TWC actually was a weather channel
So true. quote:
Cheryl Lemke was a cutie patootie.
Yes she was....
Posted on 8/23/14 at 7:31 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GEAUXmedic
If the worst case does happen and it continues to meander along and ends up in the gulf. Considering the water temps, how strong could this thing get? I know this is pure speculation but what does your educated guess tell you?
Posted on 8/23/14 at 7:34 am to Jim Rockford
G
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 7:40 am
Posted on 8/23/14 at 7:47 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
If the worst case does happen and it continues to meander along and ends up in the gulf. Considering the water temps, how strong could this thing get? I know this is pure speculation but what does your educated guess tell you?
I don't think speculation on this particular storm is even possible this early. Hypothetically a storm entering the gulf has a lot of heat to work with... I just don't know, so many things would come into play.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 7:51 am to GEAUXmedic
Models moving west again..
*The BAMD, BAMM, and BAMS models show what could happen if the storm is Deep, Shallow, or in the middle.. you mainly use these models when you don't have the bigger models available.. and can also use them to tell uncertainty of a storm's track (whether the three are close together or not), so from the map below it shows that a deeper (Stronger) storm would go west and a shallower (weaker) storm would go more east.
*The BAMD, BAMM, and BAMS models show what could happen if the storm is Deep, Shallow, or in the middle.. you mainly use these models when you don't have the bigger models available.. and can also use them to tell uncertainty of a storm's track (whether the three are close together or not), so from the map below it shows that a deeper (Stronger) storm would go west and a shallower (weaker) storm would go more east.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 7:59 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I don't think speculation on this particular storm is even possible this early.
Yep... Weather channel with their cone is doing a dis-service. They should just be showing the models graphic and stating to much uncertainty to know where/ what this storm will do.
I watched the Katrina clip 2 from the link... interesting how the trough to the north is set up similar and the disorganization at the relative same time and area of 96L.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 8:03 am to GEAUXmedic
I've always wondered about those bams. Nobody ever mentions them.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:10 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
*The BAMD, BAMM, and BAMS models show what could happen if the storm is Deep, Shallow, or in the middle.. you mainly use these models when you don't have the bigger models available.. and can also use them to tell uncertainty of a storm's track (whether the three are close together or not), so from the map below it shows that a deeper (Stronger) storm would go west and a shallower (weaker) storm would go more east.
Good summary, the only thing you left out is that they also account for the Beta effect. And as one would expect, they are the least accurate set of models
But can be useful, if you know what to look for but you will mostly get the same info and a better understanding of it by actually looking at the different charts b/w 850 mb - 200 mb.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:16 am to rds dc
quote:
Good summary, the only thing you left out is that they also account for the Beta effect. And as one would expect, they are the least accurate set of models But can be useful, if you know what
to look for but you will mostly get the same info and a better understanding of it by actually looking at the different charts b/w 850 mb - 200 mb.
I like to keep my explanations simple. And as you point out, I don't use them for accuracy, just to get an idea of uncertainty overall and as a baseline to see what the difference between a stronger/weaker storm would be. Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:18 am to rds dc
Looking at recon data and the models this morning and it is pretty obvious that 96L is continuing to track to the left side of the guidance envelope. Something interesting to watch but Hispaniola is going to keep development slow unless the northern end of 96L develops today away from the island.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:19 am to rds dc
quote:
Looking at recon data and the models this morning and it is pretty obvious that 96L is continuing to track to the left side of the guidance envelope.
This shows where the "center" likely is right now compared to the 12z early models.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:27 am to Zephyrius
I read your post and ominous music played in my head.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 9:29 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This shows where the "center" likely is right now compared to the 12z early models.
I would be cautious with making any kind of assumptions based on that until Recon can close off a LLC (connment isn't directed at you Geaux, just a thinking out loud type) 96L still looks like a wave and vorticity could still consolidate to the N or even NE. But certainly some interesting data coming in this morning.
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