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1
Posted on 8/25/14 at 10:14 pm to TDsngumbo
Is there something brewing off the Louisiana coast. I could hear Bob Breck getting excited from the other room, which is never a good thing.
Posted on 8/25/14 at 10:52 pm to rds dc
quote:
the Gulf might be a place to watch this week. The storms firing off of Louisiana today could eventually do something.
This is an interesting little area that will probably end up running out of time b/c of the way convection evolved today. There is a TUTT (basically an elongated low in the upper levels) drifting west across the Gulf and a summertime "cold" front sliding in from the east. These two features focused upper level divergence off the coast of Louisiana today and that helped drive convection. However, convection collapsed and kicked off a massive outflow boundary that stabilized things across the northern Gulf.
The process that causes consolidation of low level vorticity requires ongoing convection. Without convection, there is nothing going over the Gulf this evening
There is still an area of mid level vorticity off the coast and if convection could fire near there then the whole process could get started again. The whole area of disturbed weather is drifting west and will probably drift into Texas before anything can get going. However, Humberto is example of the tail end of a front and an upper level low rapidly spawning a storm.
After this, the Gulf will still be an area to watch over the next 7 - 10 days.
Oh, yeah, Cristobal is a hurricane now.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 10:10 am to rds dc
can the good folks headed to Houston this weekend for the LSU vs Whisky game get an update on that mess that's in the Gulf?
Posted on 8/26/14 at 10:16 am to Klark Kent
Posted on 8/26/14 at 10:21 am to Klark Kent
quote:
Disturbance 22 is located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 27.5N, 92W, and it is moving to the W at 12 mph. It has a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours before it moves inland into Texas. Widespread moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms are likely over the north-central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico as well as over land areas over the next couple of days.
This is the one we need to watch....
quote:
Disturbance 23 is a strong tropical wave currently well inland over central Africa along 1E longitude. It is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Friday or Saturday. Several models indicate it could quickly develop into a tropical storm after emerging off of Africa. The chance of development within the next 7 days is currently estimated at 40 percent.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 11:03 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
This is the one we need to watch...
quote:
Several models indicate it could quickly develop into a tropical storm after emerging off of Africa
Just guessing but if it develops this far out wouldnt it be one that stays out in the atlantic?
The possible disturbance near Bay of Campeche seems more in line with what we usually are concerned with
Posted on 8/26/14 at 11:11 am to FelicianaTigerfan
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 12:18 pm to GEAUXmedic
It's that time of year...
Posted on 8/26/14 at 12:18 pm to GEAUXmedic
Recon is going into our gulf disturbance
quote:
2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 27/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 27/1415Z
D. 27.0N 96.0W
E. 27/1530Z TO 27/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Posted on 8/26/14 at 12:31 pm to Coppertone
Current Location: 26.9N, 92.0W
Geographic Reference: 320 miles east of Corpus Christi Texas
Movement: West at 7 mph
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 25 percent
Geographic Reference: 320 miles east of Corpus Christi Texas
Movement: West at 7 mph
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 25 percent
quote:
the system to move over the Texas coast late Wednesday or early Thursday. The exact location where the system moves onshore is not important because it is likely to be a weak system. The effects will extend well away from the center.
quote:
Expected Impacts On Land
Texas and Louisiana Coast: Squalls are likely to cause locally heavy rains tomorrow and Thursday. Localized flooding is possible.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 6:09 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Recon is going gulf
Fixed it for you
Stable atmosphere is preventing convection from really going to town. I'm more interested in the southern tail just NW of Cuba at this point.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 6:16 pm to rds dc
This is sort of frustrating. I was hoping my yard would get some rain today. Maybe tomorrow...
Posted on 8/26/14 at 6:28 pm to LSUJuice
My 2 young fig trees were doing a rain dance when I got home.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 6:30 pm to LSUJuice
Lots of showers across coastal LA, though
Posted on 8/26/14 at 7:16 pm to rds dc
quote:
I'm more interested in the southern tail just NW of Cuba at this point.
Is that the energy that's supposed to move into the GOM later this week?
Posted on 8/26/14 at 9:23 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Is that the energy that's supposed to move into the GOM later this week?
No, this is still associated with the front that moved into the Gulf. Probably nothing will come of it but it will have more time over water than the piece of energy that is drifting towards Texas tonight. However, neither area has any convection this evening and you need sustained intense convection to kick start these types of systems.
The thing drifting towards Texas tonight might make one last run at something before it moves onshore. A little frictional convergence can go along ways, esp. if it can get some convection going.
The energy that is supposed to move into the Gulf and/or BoC later on isn't on the "board" yet. We will have to wait for the trade wind burst to develop and see what happens.
This post was edited on 8/26/14 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 8/27/14 at 7:31 am to rds dc
quote:
The thing drifting towards Texas tonight might make one last run at something before it moves onshore.
It is trying to get something going this morning.
quote:
We will have to wait for the trade wind burst to develop and see what happens.
The models are starting to pick up on this. Still too early to say anything but will need to watch were something develops, if anything does, and how the 500mb pattern evolves over North America. We've seen a number of systems track far south across the Yucatan and into the BoC the past couple of seasons but not many were a threat to turn north.
Posted on 8/27/14 at 8:23 am to rds dc
Designated invest 98l this am. Probably fly into it later but I don't see it developing before landfall
Posted on 8/28/14 at 2:15 pm to GEAUXmedic
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