Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Danny - no longer a threat | Page 13 | O-T Lounge
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re: Danny - no longer a threat

Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:11 pm to
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
118240 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:11 pm to
Can I crash your place if we lose power?
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
70572 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

where?


Cuba


Posted by bodean45
Lafayette
Member since Oct 2007
1102 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

Who is hosting the td hurricane party this time around?


Lanier




In Punta Cana or wherever he's going
Posted by musick
the internet
Member since Dec 2008
26131 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:19 pm to
is he fitting the bill for the plane tickets?
Posted by makinskrilla
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jun 2009
9752 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:23 pm to
Where the hell did you come up with that preparedness list?
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
70572 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

by musick is he fitting the bill for the plane tickets?


Sure. Yours is on the way.


I will give updates as it blows through.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
104680 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:57 pm to
Models shifting north

Posted by musick
the internet
Member since Dec 2008
26131 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:59 pm to
they will go back and forth until it nears the caribbean
Posted by Mullet Flap
Lysdexia
Member since Jun 2015
4208 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:00 pm to
Hmm..what is the projected wind shear going to push it?
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
70572 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:05 pm to
A wonderful thing.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42051 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:07 pm to
GFS is more south than on 12z, and those models you posted are from this morning.
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 5:08 pm
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5422 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

Hmm..what is the projected wind shear going to push it?


Wind shear doesn't push a storm anywhere. It causes the storm to be unable to maintain convection and can basically decapitate the system if the shear is strong enough.

The storm would go north because of a weakness in the ridge, usually thanks to a trough. The last few years the pattern has been dominated by East coast troughs which have carried everything out to sea. Some models still see this and it doesn't surprise me.
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93316 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:10 pm to
quote:

A more thorough update is coming tomorrow. Im taking care of a sick baby this evening so I don't have time to update. Others, please feel free to post updates.




It's out in the middle of nowhere - who gives a shite right now?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42051 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:12 pm to
quote:

It's out in the middle of nowhere - who gives a shite right now?



Lanier Spots... he's going to Punta Cana, don't ya know?
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
176407 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:12 pm to
RA'd for sticky
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:14 pm to
Rummy. You only have 2 weeks to prepare.

This is serious.
Posted by GCTiger11
Ocean Springs, MS
Member since Jan 2012
45941 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:15 pm to
quote:

IF it gets bad tomorrow, we may reconsider but we are on go for now. We were there in 2012 when Isaac came through. It was about 60mph winds. Lasted a day and a half and was nothing. Like a bad thunderstorm here.
Where you headed, bud?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21248 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

Models shifting north


The biggest problem with that is that it doesn't include the Euro/Euro EPS which dissipate it over the Caribbean. The superior vertical resolution and data assimilation is allowing the Euro package to better handle the mid-level dry stable air that appears to be hampering the system. The GFS based models have continually tried to strengthen the system too quick over the past 36 hrs.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42051 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:22 pm to
New GFS has a Puerto Rico hit as a tropical storm



ETA: Goodbye Punta Cana trip

This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 5:28 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216343 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:26 pm to
quote:

Models shifting north



I have said this early in this thread... its too far out and a front will come along and steer it northeast...........
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