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Started By
Message
re: Danny - no longer a threat
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:11 pm to Paul Allen
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:11 pm to Paul Allen
Can I crash your place if we lose power?
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:17 pm to burgeman
quote:
Who is hosting the td hurricane party this time around?
Lanier
In Punta Cana or wherever he's going
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:19 pm to bodean45
is he fitting the bill for the plane tickets?
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:23 pm to TDsngumbo
Where the hell did you come up with that preparedness list?
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:34 pm to musick
quote:
by musick is he fitting the bill for the plane tickets?
Sure. Yours is on the way.
I will give updates as it blows through.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:59 pm to Jim Rockford
they will go back and forth until it nears the caribbean
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:00 pm to Jim Rockford
Hmm..what is the projected wind shear going to push it?
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:07 pm to Jim Rockford
GFS is more south than on 12z, and those models you posted are from this morning.
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 5:08 pm
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:08 pm to Mullet Flap
quote:
Hmm..what is the projected wind shear going to push it?
Wind shear doesn't push a storm anywhere. It causes the storm to be unable to maintain convection and can basically decapitate the system if the shear is strong enough.
The storm would go north because of a weakness in the ridge, usually thanks to a trough. The last few years the pattern has been dominated by East coast troughs which have carried everything out to sea. Some models still see this and it doesn't surprise me.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:10 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
A more thorough update is coming tomorrow. Im taking care of a sick baby this evening so I don't have time to update. Others, please feel free to post updates.
It's out in the middle of nowhere - who gives a shite right now?
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:12 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
It's out in the middle of nowhere - who gives a shite right now?
Lanier Spots... he's going to Punta Cana, don't ya know?
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:14 pm to RummelTiger
Rummy. You only have 2 weeks to prepare.
This is serious.
This is serious.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:15 pm to LanierSpots
quote:Where you headed, bud?
IF it gets bad tomorrow, we may reconsider but we are on go for now. We were there in 2012 when Isaac came through. It was about 60mph winds. Lasted a day and a half and was nothing. Like a bad thunderstorm here.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:21 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Models shifting north
The biggest problem with that is that it doesn't include the Euro/Euro EPS which dissipate it over the Caribbean. The superior vertical resolution and data assimilation is allowing the Euro package to better handle the mid-level dry stable air that appears to be hampering the system. The GFS based models have continually tried to strengthen the system too quick over the past 36 hrs.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:22 pm to rds dc
New GFS has a Puerto Rico hit as a tropical storm
ETA: Goodbye Punta Cana trip

ETA: Goodbye Punta Cana trip

This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:26 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Models shifting north
I have said this early in this thread... its too far out and a front will come along and steer it northeast...........
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