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Posted on 8/21/15 at 12:53 am to rds dc
quote:geez, 00z ecmwf just about has an open wave at 50W
You think it holds off that long? I was thinking closer to 50W.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 1:02 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 4:56 am to weagle99
I'm glad someone gets it 
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:36 am to Placebeaux
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:38 am to rds dc
What's the latest track for Danny?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:40 am to rds dc
Barbados wins again!
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:45 am to soccerfüt
but what about Punta Cana?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:50 am to musick
Could Danny be here in time for the 10 year Katrina Anniversary?
We are having a cook out that day at work. Better not mess it up
We are having a cook out that day at work. Better not mess it up
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:51 am to musick
Barbados > Punta Cana
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:52 am to Paul Allen
Last Updated 8/21/2015, 4:00:00 AM (Central Daylight Time)
Location 13.7N 47.4W Movement WNW at 10 mph
Wind 85 MPH Pressure: 987 MB
The NHC is forecasting Danny to retain Tropical Storm strength while over Hispaniola. If it stays on that forecast track, the center will be just off the coast of Cuba as it slides into the Gulf of Mexico. There will be no strengthening until it reaches the GOM and even then, it will be very slow strengthening since it will be trying to get its act back together after being torn apart by land, mountains, and wind shear. Not to mention the intrusion of very dry air.
If it does in fact get steered into the GOM, I'd say anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa are at risk of a strong Tropical Storm Danny. I'd be shocked if it strengthens enough to become a hurricane again.
Location 13.7N 47.4W Movement WNW at 10 mph
Wind 85 MPH Pressure: 987 MB
quote:
Danny has strengthened a little overnight. The eye of the compact
hurricane has become more distinct recently and the cloud tops have
cooled in the eyewall. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
were both t4.5 at 0600 UTC, and the initial wind speed has been
nudged upward to 75 kt accordingly. The eye of Danny passed about
75 N mi south of NOAA buoy 41041 a few hours ago and winds at that
location were only around 20 kt, indicative of the very small size
of the wind field of this hurricane.
The cyclone continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt.
The relatively slow forward speed of the system is due to a trough
over the western Atlantic, which has weakened the subtropical
ridge. This trough is expected to lift northward in a couple of
days, allowing the ridge to build westward and strengthen. The
change in the steering flow should cause Danny to turn westward and
speed up this weekend and early next week. The track guidance
remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies closest to the
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The new forecast track is
just a tad to the north of the previous one at days 4 and 5, but is
otherwise just an update.
Danny is currently in a very low wind shear environment and over
warm water, and it is expected to remain in these favorable
conditions for about another 12-24 hours. Therefore, additional
strengthening is possible in the short term. Beyond that time,
however, the system is expected to move into an area of increased
southwesterly shear and drier air. These factors should induce a
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement
with the intensity model consensus ivcn. As mentioned in previous
discussions, the small size of the hurricane makes it susceptible to
sudden changes in intensity, which are difficult to predict.
A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around
Danny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance
aircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon. These data
will provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of
the hurricane.
Forecast positions and Max winds
Init 21/0900z 13.7n 47.4w 75 kt 85 mph
12h 21/1800z 14.3n 48.8w 80 kt 90 mph
24h 22/0600z 14.9n 50.8w 75 kt 85 mph
36h 22/1800z 15.5n 53.0w 65 kt 75 mph
48h 23/0600z 15.9n 55.3w 60 kt 70 mph
72h 24/0600z 16.7n 60.5w 50 kt 60 mph
96h 25/0600z 17.8n 65.7w 45 kt 50 mph
120h 26/0600z 18.5n 70.5w 40 kt 45 mph...inland
The NHC is forecasting Danny to retain Tropical Storm strength while over Hispaniola. If it stays on that forecast track, the center will be just off the coast of Cuba as it slides into the Gulf of Mexico. There will be no strengthening until it reaches the GOM and even then, it will be very slow strengthening since it will be trying to get its act back together after being torn apart by land, mountains, and wind shear. Not to mention the intrusion of very dry air.
If it does in fact get steered into the GOM, I'd say anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa are at risk of a strong Tropical Storm Danny. I'd be shocked if it strengthens enough to become a hurricane again.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:53 am to musick
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 8:55 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:58 am to TDsngumbo
Looks like it will hit some wind shear as well.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 9:00 am to tigerpimpbot
quote:
Looks like it will hit some wind shear as well.
Yes, he has a lot of things going against him while in the Caribbean. It's when he gets into the Gulf of Mexico that the big question marks arise. Will he be able to strengthen quickly or will it take him quite a while to reorganize? I'm thinking that after all he will have gone through, he'll be a strong tropical storm at the worst by the time he makes landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast. I'm thinking anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa, depending on how strong and big the ridge is.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 9:02 am to TDsngumbo
can you change the title? there's a pretty slim chance any of this survives to the Gulf
Posted on 8/21/15 at 9:04 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
he'll be a strong tropical storm at the worst by the time he makes landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast. I'm thinking anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa, depending on how strong and big the ridge is.
the remnants are much more likely to just continue westward into the yucatan than to curve northward. either way it's way too far out to forecast landfall locations so stop blowing smoke
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 9:05 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 9:06 am to TDsngumbo
Idiot wishcaster thread title.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 9:06 am to baytiger
quote:
either way it's way too far out to forecast landfall locations so stop blowing smoke
Fair point. I'll go change the wording so as to not cause an uproar
Posted on 8/21/15 at 9:10 am to rds dc
Those models are shifting further north. If he stays north of the islands he's going to remain formidable.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 9:14 am to TDsngumbo
You know it's been a while since a hurricane made landfall here when there is a 21 page thread this far out.
I like these threads, but it seems a little early.
I like these threads, but it seems a little early.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 9:40 am
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