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re: Experts finally admitting that Tigerdroppings was right all along
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:06 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:06 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Now imagine that cone goes from New York to Costa Rica.
Well, if we are just going to shift goalposts with every subsequent argument, let's just say the cone goes from the North pole to the South pole.
2
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:07 am to lsupride87
quote:
ou have used the hurricane cone as an analogy so I will as well. Their ranges have been the equivalent of having the hurricane cone ranging from west texas to Miami....
OK, let's use hurricane cones as a simile everyone can understand. If the hurricane cone projection is a direct path from Yucatan towards Miami to Corpus Christi, and the actual hurricane bears down on Miami, takes a u-turn, heads out to the Gulf, then turns back and strikes Corpus, even though the hurricane was always within the cone the forecasters would be laughing stocks.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:08 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:07 am to EllEssYou45
quote:
Letting my kid have a play date won’t kill anyone who wouldn’t die from this anyway.
Says all I need to know about this guy. He's not worried about people dying, as long as his kid gets to go on his play dates.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:07 am to Penrod
I thought it was rather obvious...
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:08 am to OceanMan
quote:
If it turns out it was the wrong decision, it will be deemed a bad one.
Except there is absolutely no evidence to support that it was the wrong decision.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:08 am to EllEssYou45
quote:
Or, you could just follow basic fricking guidance from people much more intelligent than yourself.
Which ones, doctors or economists?
It's kinda weird how experts are only considered experts from one sector.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:08 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Which ones, doctors or economists?
Why not both?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:10 am to Penrod
quote:
OK, let's use hurricane cones as a simile everyone can understand.
The closest analogy would be if meteorologists had to predict a Western Hemisphere landing site while the Hurricane was off the coast of Africa but was moving at such a speed that it would make landfall in 48 hours.
Effects were coming so fast that action had to be taken but data was inconclusive because there weren't enough measurements for a narrow cone.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:11 am to EllEssYou45
quote:
Why not both?
That's generally my guidelines which is why I believe most areas were unnecessarily shut down.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:11 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Which ones, doctors or economists?
It's kinda weird how experts are only considered experts from one sector.
It's better than the alternative
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:13 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Except there is absolutely no evidence to support that it was the wrong decision.
You are having trouble with this. You are asking how can anyone be mad that the conditions have improved according to the models. If those same people already predicted (even if it was based on nothing but a gut feeling) that they wouldn’t be so bad, and the models are not aligning with their own predictions, they will be upset that they lost money over something they never considered to be as big of a deal it was being made out to be.
You are asking to explain emotions, which does not necessarily involve rational thought.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:15 am to EllEssYou45
quote:
I thought it was rather obvious...
Obvious if you make bad assumptions. I did not bitch about social distancing. I reluctantly agreed with the policy, but I would characterize my position as wary about whether we needed it. In the absence of certainty we needed to be cautious. However, about five days before the experts admitted it, I started to realize that the estimates were way overblown.
So again I ask, your seatbelt metaphor is apropos of what?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:15 am to shawnlsu
You know we have to infect others at some point right. You are pearl clutching over exposure when it’s not even something we can stop. We either get exposed now or later. The idea isn’t to stop anything. The idea is to slow it by limiting interactions. Just because I’m not limiting to the extend you decide is sufficient, doesn’t make you right and me reckless. At the end of the day, my kid has gone to being exposed to 500 kids 5 times a week to a few kids once a week or even less. If that number was zero, it doesn’t make a significant difference. You know one day we will send them back to school right? You know that has to happen? I feel like you think we should keep them away from other kids forever. You think when they go back to school in August that there will be a vaccine?
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:16 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:15 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
quote:
If it turns out it was the wrong decision, it will be deemed a bad one.
Except there is absolutely no evidence to support that it was the wrong decision.
With the exception of killing off a lot of small businesses who could have operated safely through this crisis.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:16 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Except there is absolutely no evidence to support that it was the wrong decision.
Yes, there is. The decisions were made based on estimates that now appear to be way overblown. Sweden has chosen to go a different direction, and the data is beginning to make them look prescient.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:16 am to OceanMan
quote:
You are having trouble with this. You are asking how can anyone be mad that the conditions have improved according to the models. If those same people already predicted (even if it was based on nothing but a gut feeling) that they wouldn’t be so bad, and the models are not aligning with their own predictions, they will be upset that they lost money over something they never considered to be as big of a deal it was being made out to be.
You are asking to explain emotions, which does not necessarily involve rational thought.
Oh, I get it.
It's just a little disheartening to see.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:17 am to Penrod
quote:The experts are using data and plugging them into models. They have said all along the models will change as additional data is collected. This isn't surprising to anyone that understands this beyond just a surface level.
However, about five days before the experts admitted it, I started to realize that the estimates were way overblown
People responsible for responding to the crisis are assuming worst case because they could be on the hook if that were to happen (hospital and government officials). They have to assume they will need those beds and vents and ppe and attempt to get them.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:19 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:18 am to Privateer 2007
quote:
My wife thinks your all jackasses.
You act as though you are not one of the jackasses you speak of.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:18 am to Penrod
There are going to be so many idiots eating their words after this!
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:19 am to Penrod
quote:
Yes, there is. The decisions were made based on estimates that now appear to be way overblown.
This is factually incorrect. The range is the range. You keep using the upper limits to judge the entire range.
quote:
Sweden has chosen to go a different direction, and the data is beginning to make them look prescient.
Sweden announced yesterday that its legislature is drafting tighter restrictions.
LINK
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