Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential | Page 12 | O-T Lounge
Started By
Message

re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/1/18 at 10:38 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21248 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 10:38 am to
Wave is slowly moving westward

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
101482 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 11:10 am to
quote:

Gordon would be the name if this thing organizes.



Get Gordon Get it done
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21248 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 11:14 am to
Last two Euro EPS runs. Can see the westward shift and the increase in chances for a Gulf storm.

Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 11:26 am to
Amazing how quiet it is then the high point hits us and all of a sudden it just takes 1 eh? You would think we'd get a break after last year.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
40564 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 12:04 pm to
Is that 8/31 12Z run not even showing the storm? And the Sep 1 0Z run is now showing it?
Posted by 91TIGER
Lafayette
Member since Aug 2006
19352 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

is the forecast


quote:

anything can happen


quote:

I think


quote:

it could


quote:

I think


quote:

(if anything)


quote:

maybe


quote:

I just hope



I'm worried now.

Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 12:20 pm to
Models been consistent on it being a weak storm and going on the westward track. Florence already shifted west more on their track in a day from a fish storm. Common sense people. How many times do you have to go through hurricane season to know it's impossible to predict a storm 5-7 days out?

3 consistencies I've noticed on the computer models past few days.

-westward movement in the Gulf

-weak storm by the time it hits land

-each forecast is slightly worse for the impacts while gaining a little more strength


Nothing to get worried about right now just keep your eye on it.
Posted by Zach Lee To Amp Hill
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2016
4921 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:24 pm to
Lafourche parish hit on new Euro. 993mb.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13934 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:31 pm to
Euro on Wednesday morning...

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21248 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

Lafourche parish hit on new Euro. 993mb.


The Euro shows rapidly improving upper level environment as the storm approaches. There is a 6 hr drop from 1001mb to 993mb right before landfall. If that improvement happens 12 hrs sooner then there is a real chance for RI to a significant storm right at landfall.



It gets down to 993mb in between these two frames.

Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53612 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:32 pm to
what day about would this be?

eta: saw wed morning

This post was edited on 9/1/18 at 1:33 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43268 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:33 pm to
Wednesday
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43268 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:34 pm to
I know it's coming but I am a little surprised the NHC has not classified this as an Invest yet.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146896 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

If that improvement happens 12 hrs sooner then there is a real chance for RI to a significant storm right at landfall.

yeah that would be almost worst case scenario
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43268 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:44 pm to
even worse is the Euro stalls it in Texas not far from where Harvey was.
Posted by Zach Lee To Amp Hill
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2016
4921 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:45 pm to
Worse for some, better for others.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21248 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:47 pm to
quote:


yeah that would be almost worst case scenario


Hopefully, the GFS is right and this thing can never really get going.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21248 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

even worse is the Euro stalls it in Texas not far from where Harvey was.



Pretty widespread 15 - 19" totals from S. Louisiana across into Texas. Flood threat appears to be creeping into the picture.

ETA: Basically all models, other than the GFS, show this hooking back to the W and then SW. That will keep moisture flowing in across the same areas and could produce some big rain totals.
This post was edited on 9/1/18 at 1:54 pm
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12566 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:58 pm to
I thought "invest" runs began at 20 percent prob
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21248 posts
Posted on 9/1/18 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

I thought "invest" runs began at 20 percent prob


There are no hard and fast rules for declaring an invest.
Jump to page
Page First 10 11 12 13 14 ... 400
Jump to page
first pageprev pagePage 12 of 400Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on X, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookXInstagram