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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 8/29/18 at 9:14 am to maxxrajun70
Posted on 8/29/18 at 9:14 am to maxxrajun70
quote:
The only purpose for my generator is to sit in my shop and collect shite that sits on top of it. I haven't started it in 2 years. Am I fricked?
Just bought a new generator and ran it last weekend. I hope I don't have to use it this year, but I am prepared. I was the only one in the neighborhood who had one last year when we lost power in Irma. Luckily it was only for a few hours where I was at, but I loaded everything and took it to my parents who were without power for days. I bought the new one and gave the one I bought last year to my parents in case we get another one this year.
1
Posted on 8/29/18 at 9:30 am to Perrydawg
quote:
Crown Weather Services
20 mins ·
Wednesday 8/29/2018 - There are a few items of interest right now in the Atlantic Basin -
(1) A Tropical Wave now over the Lesser Antilles has the potential to try to develop either in the northern & western Bahamas Sunday or Monday or in the northern Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Thursday of next week.
(2) A Tropical Wave will push off of the coast of Africa this weekend where there is a very likely chance that it will develop into a tropical storm and maybe more. The good news is that this system will likely turn to the north and out into the open Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles.
(3) Another tropical wave will push off of the coast of Africa by the mid part of next week & this system may need close scrutiny as it could push pretty far west in longitude.
(4) I think there is the very real potential for anywhere between 2 and 4 tropical storms to form in the Atlantic Basin over the next 10 to 15 days.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 9:30 am to Midtiger farm
Weather Prediction Center highlights strong 500 mb ridge 594dm neat Virginia by next Wednesday morning. Assume that a wave or Euro 1005mb low materializes in eastern Gulf of Mexico, I would think the proposed low would track further west than shown at 12Z Thursday 168 hours out. No apparent short waves or troughs depicted to reach northern Gulf plus weaker low would likely be steered by lower levels easterlies.
Unless I am missing something this morning there is not really any model support yet for this low to form
Unless I am missing something this morning there is not really any model support yet for this low to form
Posted on 8/29/18 at 9:38 am to rds dc
quote:
The models vary in how they handle the break down of the TUTT over the next few days with the GFS keeping shear high and the Euro giving the system a bit of a break.
Really not much change overnight but the Euro EPS did come in a bit more aggressive.
The Euro Op tracks to the right side of the spread and keeps the system weak with more time over land. One thing to watch will be how soon robust convection can get going, since the outflow can influence the larger scale environment around the system.
If you think of the TUTT in a PV framework then you can see how convective driven outflow can thin or fracture the PV streamer (TUTT). Then the PV streamer fracturing can result in an ULL that eventually provides an outflow channel. However, models struggle with this process and it is common for them to fumble ULL motion and strength. It's a tricky setup that could result in shear staying strong and keeping things in check or just the right outflow setup resulting in rapid strengthening.
Regardless, the wave isn't very sharp this morning and is still highly sheared.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 9:52 am to LSUGrad9295
quote:
I am headed to Wal-Mart right now to get a year's worth of bottled water...
I have 2 cases of MREs and a LifeStraw.
I'm good.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 2:08 pm to rds dc
12z models look pretty good and don't show much development with the wave moving towards the Gulf. The system coming off Africa looks to move out to sea.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 4:15 pm to rds dc
That’s good news all around.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 4:24 pm to rds dc
quote:
If you think of the TUTT in a PV framework then you can see how convective driven outflow can thin or fracture the PV streamer (TUTT). Then the PV streamer fracturing can result in an ULL that eventually provides an outflow channel. However, models struggle with this process and it is common for them to fumble ULL motion and strength. It's a tricky setup that could result in shear staying strong and keeping things in check or just the right outflow setup resulting in rapid strengthening.
Not even attempting to dumb it down.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 5:13 pm to rds dc
That thing will twirl around in the Central Atlantic and die. Gulf threat my foot!
This post was edited on 8/29/18 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 8/29/18 at 5:59 pm to Tchefuncte Tiger
Dylan Federico or whatever his name is is going wild on stormcast mentioning similarities to Andrew
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:03 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
going wild on stormcast mentioning similarities to Andrew
Sigh.
The similarity to Andrew would be the push from Florida to the NW toward Louisiana. Since you know, it's a question of if anything develops and Andrew was...Andrew. He's not the only one throwing around "Andrew" to be fair, but it's all sensationalist.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:07 pm to Midtiger farm
Dylan Federico doesn’t hype this wave into an Andrew. He mentions possible lowering wind shear and warm SST’s. No where does he say this will turn into an Andrew.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:09 pm to Midtiger farm
Yea lets get the people riled up, I mean I know anything can happen with weather but right now I would think at most would be a minimal tropical storm at this time.
This post was edited on 8/29/18 at 6:42 pm
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:23 pm to Klingler7
Him and another guy both mention similar scenarios to
Andrew. They know how the general public will react to that name. They put it their tweets for clickbait
Andrew. They know how the general public will react to that name. They put it their tweets for clickbait
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:34 pm to Midtiger farm
No he didn’t. He said the steering current setting up on the models resembles the steering current of Andrew. Not even sure how you could mistake that
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:39 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Yea lets get the people wild up,
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:43 pm to notiger1997
oops 
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:47 pm to Ba Ba Boooey
quote:
No he didn’t. He said the steering current setting up on the models resembles the steering current of Andrew. Not even sure how you could mistake that
Steering current resembles Katrina too.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:51 pm to Ba Ba Boooey
quote:
resembles ...Andrew.
Just curious, what two hurricanes are considered to be most similar to each other, in terms of path and strength? It seems like every hurricane, especially the major ones are just so unique that there are way more differences than similarities.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:54 pm to slackster
quote:
Steering current resembles Katrina too.
And Rita.
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