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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:22 pm to Duke
That is depressing. Either the East Coast or Gulf States are about to get fricked up. And Florida gets it no matter what?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:23 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Thankfully this is ten days away..
Let's say that model ends up correct. Where would you see it making landfall from that point?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:24 pm to deltaland
quote:
Let's say that model ends up correct. Where would you see it making landfall from that point?
if it gets through the FL straits... anywhere along the north Gulf coast should be on high alert
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:26 pm to deltaland
I'd be willing to go out on a limb and say between Fla and Mexico if it makes it through the Fla straights
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:26 pm to deltaland
Florida panhandle
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:29 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
The problem isn't them necessarily getting hit by a storm, but getting to them because of storms.
I am confused at the point now, should we close all vacations down in the Caribbean during storm season? Curacao is one of the safer islands during the hurricane season, but you should not go there because storm chance during flight???
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:31 pm to ForeverLSU02
Notice how the GFS ensemble has Irma beginning the northward shift much farther east than the Euro ensemble
This post was edited on 8/31/17 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:33 pm to DarthRebel
MAJOR HURRICANE NOW
quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:35 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
know your name doesn't start with a p but don't tempt the hurricane gods.
Trump seems to have mastered the hurricane machine bush gave him
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:35 pm to ForeverLSU02
Panhandle, East Florida/Southern Atlantic Coast Scrape, and a NC then curve out have some clusters. Everyone should read this as even the king Euro isn't really sure. Unfortunately, all those clusters have a strong hurricane at all solutions.
Also noteworthy, they're all pretty keyed in on a brush with the Antilles but after that the splits start showing up. So don't trust much past day seven.
Also noteworthy, they're all pretty keyed in on a brush with the Antilles but after that the splits start showing up. So don't trust much past day seven.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:39 pm to Duke
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:45 pm to rt3
Damn, 2 hours ago it was just moved to a cat 2
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:49 pm to rt3
000
WTNT41 KNHC 312032
TCDAT1
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.
Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement
cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the
eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for
this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment
for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles
and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast
intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,
Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to
be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be
strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC
prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line
with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional
hurricane models at that time.
Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the
hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the
next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At
long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the
strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south
differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
WTNT41 KNHC 312032
TCDAT1
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.
Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement
cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the
eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for
this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment
for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles
and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast
intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,
Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to
be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be
strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC
prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line
with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional
hurricane models at that time.
Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the
hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the
next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At
long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the
strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south
differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:52 pm to MrLarson
Nah, it was a cat 2 for the 10AM advisory
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:54 pm to Duke
Is there any significance to this thing strengthening so far out? Shouldn't it help make recurve more likely?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:58 pm to ForeverLSU02
Irma fiddin to eat isn't she?
What's the All knowing euro say as of now?
What's the All knowing euro say as of now?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 4:00 pm to Uncle JackD
quote:
What's the All knowing euro say as of now?
right through the Florida straits
good bye FL Keys
Posted on 8/31/17 at 4:00 pm to rt3
Damn... pas bon
Posted on 8/31/17 at 4:01 pm to rt3
You shut your whore mouth!
No storm in the Keys!
No storm in the Keys!
No storm in the Keys!
No storm in the Keys!
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